Originally Posted by
EDML
1. I don‘t think it is possible to survive a flapless T/O at this density altitude and take off mass.
My thoughts too when I also started musing about why a possible first rotation seem to fail (where those first VS reports occurred 2/3rds along the runway, and which DaveReidUK is inclined to put aside pending further clues
) and then they seemed to use so much runway with no height gain, but at the lat/long of Capt Kremin's chosen 207kts GS datapoint (seemingly some 1700ft into the dirt), that dirt beyond the paved areas has already fallen perhaps 150 feet from the runway (according to Google Earth elevations). So it is no Courchevel, and no
USS Gerald R. Ford, but the terrain beyond the runway with or without approach light towers, does perhaps offer a little launch ramp type forgiveness.
It is lucky for analysts, that by that point we have no less than 15 ADS-B "airborne" datapoints covering 80% of the available runway and all points without a hint of any spuriousness are located slap bang along the centreline of 07R. Clearly ET302 wasn't airborne at 93kts GS where the first airborne report became available, but that's no real mystery in itself. So thus far I do not question the accuracy of the ADS-B GPS locations reported. It is the altitudes, groundspeeds and vertical speeds which are more questionable, but not overly so. Indeed the altitudes reported along the middle of the runway do seem to reflect moderate undulations found in Google Earth. Whether Google Earth elevations are accurate along the runway is another story.
Originally Posted by
EDML
2. Even if they did - after reaching 1000ft and 300kt everything is fine and they could have continued the flight. However, here the disaster started at this point of the flight.
... everything is fine?? Are we sure about that? Where for example do we reckon they actually reached 1000ft above anything until the last few datapoints of the FR24 data?? And on the same score please, DaveReidUK, what point are you calling rotation and what point are you calling 1050ft AAL?