Originally Posted by
Justin. Beaver
There is no shortage of mainline applicants. Including many from Cathay, virgin and other competitors.
While mainline attrition (non retirement) remains at less than 1 %, I don’t see a whole lot of shortage leverage for mainline.
As was stated repeatedly the shortage is being keenly felt all the way up the line, but QF 'mainline' will feel it last.Rest assured IR know there is a problem of supply at the prices they are
used to offering.
As you state, Cathay and Virgin are losing pilots too. Where will they and at what price will they secure adequate supply?
Of course there is no shortage if one ignores the cacophony of noise from China, where a 737 Captain can lever themselves contracts at USD$600,000.
US Airline pilots are seeing sustained upwards movement in remuneration, ignoring that too, ignoring the globalised supply argument and perhaps viewing the world from Coward street in the myopic way management would hope, could lead one to believe there is no shortage. Can you confidently assume that 'attrition rates are less than 1%' By the way what is the source of that comment? HR?
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/airlines-pilot-shortage-cancelled-routes-2018-8?r=US&IR=T
The US is facing a serious shortage of airline pilots
There has never been a shortage of applicants.
Suitable applicants however......
The intersection of demand and supply is perhaps the one 'law' of economics worth remembering: More supply is induced when price rises, thereby clearing a market. QF know this.
That is why they are desperate and will spend no expense to preserve a status quo. That status quo is simply not sustainable.
Ask around, many airline management are already re-thinking their relationship with the pilot workforce. A reasonable work life balance, remuneration commensurate with responsibility and the skill set are not foreign concepts.
Unfortunately, where the entire relationship with pilots of airlines like Qantas fails, is that
their entire edifice is built on the underlying, albeit erroneous assumption of unlimited supply.
Ask yourself why would QF set up a 'cadet school' Ask why they are quietly establishing a narrative to expand the beach head for foreign pilots, ask yourself why they persist with expanding a business that at best is a poor substitute for what they dream of replacing. Their model is adversarial, it knows no other way. Operating revenue without operating crew is a very novel concept.
Smarter people in the room worked out that pilots are strategic assets.
QF will like everything else be late to yet another party, but like the first 787 for QF was heralded (pun intended) as some sort of world first when JQ operated 11 of them and the world over 500, QF will belatedly turn up to this party too.