Originally Posted by
BigGeordie
Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?
The math has to include 4% of everyone senior, so that should mean a fairly breezy 13 years to command, plus any delays caused by DECs, politics and fleet contraction.. Given the 52% attrition rate over 13 years there’s a better-than-even chance of any new hire fleeing before upgrading anyway.
My experience, upgrading with a hated employer was that it wasn’t worth the wait.