Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Worldwide > Middle East
Reload this Page >

Emirates expansion

Middle East Many expats still flying in Knoteetingham. Regional issues can be discussed here.

Emirates expansion

Old 18th Nov 2018, 23:36
  #1 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Pretoria, South Africa
Posts: 156
Emirates expansion

I recently travelled on Emirates and read on the inflight entertainment info (ICE) that there are very little B777s on order vs a large A380 order. My perception was that the 777 was the workhorse for EK vs the 380 that flies to less destinations and offered a bit a of dated experience vs the 777. Is the 380 the future of EK or is the foresight of expansion at EK in terms of a workhorse like the 777 a bit limited?

Last edited by Springbok614; 19th Nov 2018 at 08:02.
Springbok614 is offline  
Old 19th Nov 2018, 01:13
  #2 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 270
I don't know....150 B777-8's and B777-9s on order seems like they still like/need the Boeing money-earner!
ATCO1962 is offline  
Old 19th Nov 2018, 05:15
  #3 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,630
All fleet replacement ! Very slow expansion now on both fleets. EGOs can't run an airline.
fatbus is offline  
Old 19th Nov 2018, 10:22
  #4 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: VenusVille
Posts: 321
https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1600033_1.html
squarecrow is offline  
Old 19th Nov 2018, 11:16
  #5 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Between East and West
Posts: 13
And does it really mean that new joiners on the 777 will face much longer upgrade times here or the things are so unpredictable at EK so it is not possible to take a reasonably realistic guess?
IEFCL is offline  
Old 19th Nov 2018, 17:13
  #6 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: UAE
Posts: 965
Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?
BigGeordie is offline  
Old 19th Nov 2018, 20:54
  #7 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Germany
Posts: 246
Whats happening with the Boeing B787-10?
Joker11 is offline  
Old 19th Nov 2018, 21:16
  #8 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 958
Originally Posted by BigGeordie View Post
Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?

The math has to include 4% of everyone senior, so that should mean a fairly breezy 13 years to command, plus any delays caused by DECs, politics and fleet contraction.. Given the 52% attrition rate over 13 years there’s a better-than-even chance of any new hire fleeing before upgrading anyway.

My experience, upgrading with a hated employer was that it wasn’t worth the wait.
Australopithecus is offline  
Old 20th Nov 2018, 00:46
  #9 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New York
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by BigGeordie View Post
Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?
For someone to make up their mind about joining EK for a quick command they need data to support their decision either way. Unfortunately the company's (Mr. AAR) decision was to scramble the seniority list back in 2016. Why that decision was made I do not know but the only logical conclusion would be to make it less transparent.

Luckily there will always be someone in some department that are willing to spill the beans so here it goes:

About a week ago there were 2643 B777 pilots, 1410 CPT's and 1233 FO's
One year ago that number was 2623, 1322 CPT's and 1301 FO's.

The reason the amount of Captains went up was due to the sudden requirement that all 3 men operations needed to become 2 CPT and 1 FO, whereas EK before operated 1CPT/2FO
About 105 captains resigned last 12 months. Last 3 years it's been pretty consistent around 100 (2015 - 96, 2016 - 103)
6 DEC (direct entry captains) joined.

Moving ahead with 3 key facts in mind:

Upgrade is solely depending on attrition as the fleet is no longer expanding.
B777X is a replacement program, not expansion
Around 100 skippers leaves each year.


The current total number of pilots divided with number of airframes suggests 16 pilots per airframe (2643/165) with a ratio of 8,5 CPT to 7,5 FO.
13 airframes leaving 2019 meaning 13*8,5 = 110 less skippers needed

At present, an FO that joined B777 in:
Nov -17 has about 1070 pilots ahead of him/her.
Nov -16 / 955 ahead
Nov -15 / 575 ahead
Nov -14 / 440 ahead
Nov -13 / has about 350 FO's more senior.

Realistical conclusion is practically nil upgrades 2019, 100-120 upgrades 2020 onwards.
Half of the guys joining between nov-13 and -nov14 will see their upgrade 2020 and the other half 2021 setting the time to command to about 7 years.
It'll stay pretty constant for a few years to slowly increase to 8 around 2023 onwards.
That's based on current fleet plan, rate of people leaving and upgrade policy.

Someone joining 2019 will wait 8 years++ for a command on B777 factoring in senior FO's leaving and an increase in numbers of CPT's leaving.

Common arguments:

"there are many locals in that list that is far away from upgrade".
True and false, There are about 190 UAE nationals with staff numbers <430000 that is included in these numbers.
However, around 100 of them have staff numbers <399000 meaning they'll be up for command fairly soon

"my buddy that joined 6 month before me just got his command on the 4 year mark so I should be up pretty soon"
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.

"a lot of FO's have missed out on their upgrade and are permanent FO's"
About 50

On a side note:
Total number of EK pilots:
Nov 18: 4231.
Nov 17: 4200
Nov 16: 4215
All-time-high was February 2017 with 4250

You can scramble numbers to hide the truth but never the opposite!
thenumberpilot is offline  
Old 20th Nov 2018, 09:48
  #10 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,630
That a good recap . I'm sure @ the same on the 380. Would be surprised to see 777 x options become the 787 hence no measurable fleet increase for 5-8 years. Capt upgrades purely due to attrition both fleets.
fatbus is offline  
Old 20th Nov 2018, 10:13
  #11 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Pretoria, South Africa
Posts: 156
Thenumberpilot, interesting numbers- thank you. Would this suggest that EK have reached it’s capacity as an airline in terms of it’s offering in the global airline passenger market? No further/ immediate room for expansion in terms of passenger demand for what it offers? Does FZ’s offering play a role in this or is there not much conflict in the different offerings?
Springbok614 is offline  
Old 20th Nov 2018, 13:29
  #12 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Travelling East
Posts: 255
Does anyone know what will happen to the 787 orders? At RTGS the managers are planning for them coming, so if that happens, (and they don't end up with flydubai) the numbers will change, a lot.
skyvan is offline  
Old 20th Nov 2018, 15:39
  #13 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: SZR
Posts: 57
777 fleet shrinking. Blah blah blah it's true.

What's all true is the 380 fleet orders are for replacement and expansion.

40 x 787's also on order.

Commands aren't slowing down anytime soon. Especially not with the attrition rate which has no signs of slowing down.
seven3seven is offline  
Old 20th Nov 2018, 15:40
  #14 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Kot Addu
Posts: 1,163
EK have been given permission to fly A380 to Islamabad.
newscaster is offline  
Old 20th Nov 2018, 17:56
  #15 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Bonvoy Marriott
Posts: 77
Heard the rumour EK is going to outsource the cargo biz. Any truth in it?
SaulGoodman is offline  
Old 21st Nov 2018, 06:42
  #16 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Below the tropopause
Posts: 381
Originally Posted by skyvan View Post
Does anyone know what will happen to the 787 orders? At RTGS the managers are planning for them coming, so if that happens, (and they don't end up with flydubai) the numbers will change, a lot.
Those 787's will NOT end up with flydubai. If anything they'll opt for the 797 from 2025 onwards but flydubai will transition to purely an all 737 MAX fleet.
High Energy is offline  
Old 21st Nov 2018, 08:12
  #17 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Asia
Posts: 42
Originally Posted by seven3seven View Post
777 fleet shrinking. Blah blah blah it's true.

What's all true is the 380 fleet orders are for replacement and expansion.

40 x 787's also on order.

Commands aren't slowing down anytime soon. Especially not with the attrition rate which has no signs of slowing down.
Commands on A380 may continue as normal but for the B777 it has slowed down a lot already and is getting even longer day-by-day
kcar is offline  
Old 21st Nov 2018, 09:13
  #18 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: SZR
Posts: 57
Originally Posted by kcar View Post

Commands on A380 may continue as normal but for the B777 it has slowed down a lot already and is getting even longer day-by-day
Really? You sure? Because the brand spanking new 777 captain I flew with this week did 4 years as FO.
seven3seven is offline  
Old 21st Nov 2018, 09:22
  #19 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: lost
Posts: 86
Expectations vs reality.
lower your expectations to defeat disappointment.
thats one thing i learned from EK .
desertcamel is offline  
Old 21st Nov 2018, 10:24
  #20 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Asia
Posts: 42
Originally Posted by seven3seven View Post
Really? You sure? Because the brand spanking new 777 captain I flew with this week did 4 years as FO.
Read "thenumberpilots" post again.

Originally Posted by thenumberpilot View Post
"my buddy that joined 6 month before me just got his command on the 4 year mark so I should be up pretty soon"
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.
kcar is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.