Uncertain times for Darwin based Cobham Crew

[Rated De]

Originally Posted by Berealgetreal

Rated De, there will never be a shortage of 18 year olds willing to do the job. In the US the situation changed after Colgan.
i think if Colgan happened here it would be business as usual after the Captain had been tarred and feathered to the point that the ratings on Today Tonight begin to decline.

Whilst the context you refer to has been the case worldwide for 30 years there is one small caveat to apply: Ceteris Parabus

Airline recruitment models and indeed response have been predicated on all other factors remaining constant.
As such, 18 year old cadets would ordinarily fill the gap.

What is at play is isnot a constant and therefore the model is ill equipped to deal with the new paradigm. Candidly you only need look at ABS data in Australia, or the ONS in the UK to tell the story; retirement rates will outstrip replacement labour in all western economies with little lag difference inside the next decade. For an industry with a narrow skill set availability and a long lead time it is rather ominous.

That is the retirement rates are beyond anything ever encountered and are largely attributable to the post war generation who are now increasingly retiring.

It is small consolation to those affected, but in Europe pilots from failed airlines are readily and rapidly absorbed by other carriers with little dislocation.
The Australian context is a little different given the dominance of the incumbents, however Asia is a short distance away.