Bear in mind that a substantial chunk of the traffic (especially of the higher-yielding traffic) originates in Antwerp and therefore expects a morning departure. The core of the VLM schedule is a morning and evening rotation facilitating day trips:
ANR 0700 - 0710 LCY
LCY 0740 - 0940 ANR
ANR 1750 - 1800 LCY
LCY 1830 - 2030 ANR
This requires an ANR-based aircraft to work - if the first departure from ANR is only (for example) at 0930, it will be too late for a good chunk of the prospective passengers. Similarly, for an LCY-based aircraft, a departure from LCY at say 1700 would mean a departure from ANR at about 1930, so again you'd have lost a fair share of the UK business day-trippers to BRU or the Eurostar.
Someone like flyBE
could always operate the route with an LCY-based aircraft, but it'll be on a compromised schedule and is unlikely to be sustainable. A carrier like Sun-Air could theoretically operate the route from the ANR end, but if it's not sustainable with a fully-depreciated F50 flown by the Antwerp hometown carrier, why would it work with a more expensive aircraft? I don't think the benefits of the BA code would overcome the adverse economics, especially given LCY's charging structure which penalises smaller aircraft by setting a minimum PLS charge level equivalent to 45 passengers, irrespective of aircraft size. (See
LCY Fees and Charges).
I have to sadly agree with
01475:
Originally Posted by
01475
Might we have to conclude that just because the route has almost always existed doesn't mean it necessarily should? It doesn't seem to have brought, in recent years, happiness to those who have operated it. Further, flying those sorts of distances to that sort of size of airport in those sorts of sizes of planes is now almost extinct.