As late as the 80s the Badgers of the Smolensk Air Army penetrating Baltap and making ASM attacks on the ADGE sites was seen as a likely threat. Backfires flying round the top could do one mission per day, through Baltap they could do too. Similarly Blinders could attack the southern North Sea.
A couple of us noted the difference in Badger assignment between the SNAF and the Air Force. IIRC the SNAF Badger tankers would probably have been used to extend the range of the ASM carriers. There were fewer tankers available to the Air Force. We assessed that their Badger ECM aircraft were fuel limited and would benefit from the tankers more than the bombers.
As you said, Fencers of the Legnicia Air Army could reach USAFE bases in East Anglia, I can't remember how far they could reach.
One NATO Intelligence assessment disagreed with the BALTAP theory and favoured a single penetration probably on the 2/4ATAF boundary. This penetration corridor could be exploited by Fitted aircraft broadening and deepening the front achieving local air superiority with Hawk sites shot out or knocked. Then the NATO rear could be interrupted and a corridor open to UK and France.