What is more of concern here is
the intent.
Clearly Qantas and the other protagonists will not telegraph intent.
Consider the impact of a prolonged shortage on airline strategy. No use playing checkers when the opponent is playing chess.
Using Qantas as the example:
- Qantas has open enterprise agreements with (from our understanding) both their domestic and international pilots.
- Qantas is acutely aware of the prolonged and extended shortage.
- Qantas is desperate to hold unit cost where they like it ( so pilot remuneration stays where it is)
- Union acquiescence? Not known.
- Line pilots agitating for improved terms and conditions (remuneration) as they are also acutely aware of the shortage.
- Inept federal parliament of either persuasion, will continue to mutter about wage growth, then rather quickly grants exemptions to employer groups (for the previously well established reasons) Employer groups love immigration as it holds labour wage claims to near zero in real terms.
IFF this 'program' provides substantial applicants, it is highly probable that the applicants will be moved to entities like Network with A320, or Qantaslink, even through to JQ. It is probable that the Qantas mainline pilot recruitment numbers will be the last to feel the effects of the shortage, thereby buying time. (From reading the press releases, it isn't clear how much airline's want!) In other words, this is not for a definite time frame. Consider carefully, that Qantas does not say until 2020 when our 'pilot college' trains XXX pilots. The agreement is likely open ended.
Having an alternative workforce in place, whether from fair means or foul, is extremely important. This is precisely what JQ provided for a decade. As former CEO Gregg testified to your Federal parliament, that JQ provided 'competitive leverage' against labour unit cost. (The decode was transfer flying until Qantas people give up wage claims!)
Returning to the first bullet point.
If Qantas IR/HR delay 'negotiation's will the unions force to arbitration or indeed proceed to undertaking protected industrial action? (This is unknown!)
Delaying negotiations and playing for time is precisely what they (IR/HR) need with their fingers crossed they hold the line long enough for a 'strike breaking workforce' to be in place.
It seems axiomatic when viewed from afar that
time is what airline managements in Australia need. With a Federal election due this could be of relevance too.
For the pilots reading this post, can your management be trusted to deal in good faith?
The market for pilots will clear. The problem for airline management is that will do everything to avoid market rates (unless of course that direction means a reduction in salary)