Originally Posted by
highcirrus
Either of the above solutions, of course, as Dr. North says, would only be possible following a negotiated Withdrawal Agreement after which UK would become a "third country" and enter a transition period to 31 December 2020. A "crash out" Hard Brexit with no Agreement and hence no transition period, would lead to Aerospace/Air Transport Armageddon. The full blog text is well worth a read for anyone interested in the immediate (perilous) future of our industry.
I think you're missing the most critical point from his blog which, in my eyes, is the following:
However, we are also aware that, without such agreements and in the absence of a transition period, UK parts fitted to EU-registered aircraft will no longer be validly certified, the aerospace industries and airline operations of the EU Member States will be as badly affected as UK enterprises.
This clearly shows that the impact to aviation would be immense, not just from Britain but across Europe as Airbus aircraft cannot be flown as UK manufactured parts become no longer certified. Therefore it's not just Great Britain which has an interest in ensuring a deal is met but also Europe. If the impact was
just Aviation in Great Britain, I would anticipate the EU allowing us to stew but as the issue has the possibility of major disruption across Europe, you can guarantee a resolution will be found. Heck, imagine MEPS in Brussels actually having to use the Bus home, instead of an Airbus......