Originally Posted by
GTC58
I think 15-20 years to command for new hires is very optimistic. There are approx. 230 2007 pilot hires on the seniority list. I believe none of those are on command course. Considering 10 command courses this year and who knows how many in the coming years the math is quite simple. If we consider around 80 command courses a year (from 2019 on) this would result in that an early 2007 hire can expect now a command course at around 11.5 - 12. 5 years and a late 2007 hire can potentially look at 15.5 years to command.
This does not take all the CAT A'd pilots into account who deferred their command course and who are waiting for a B777 course.
I believe there were no new hires in 2009 and only a limited amount in 2010. So time to command for 2008 hires would increase, worst case up to 18 years, while 2010 hires see a decrease in time to command and from then on time to command would increase again.
Also to consider is that CX hired (since approx. 2005) more pilots per year then offering command courses per year. Sometimes by a factor of four if taken an average of 80 command courses per year into account.
But maybe I am wrong and CX is able to offer 200 command courses per year and time to command will come down.
I think your math is quite accurate. I have looked at this big hiring cluster from 2006-2008. It’s massive, and they haven’t offered a single 2007 hire a course, to my knowledge anyways. Late 2007 and 2008 hires are looking at several more years in the right seat.
Also, many more senior FOs whom have bypassed command waiting for a 777 course or other personal reasons are taking courses now on the Airbus. With the all the A350s coming, the fleet isn’t nearly as bad as it once was. Yet, if you’re a captain stuck on the 747, tough luck! Didn’t you know you were hired by Connie Pacific?