The number 1 on the seniority list is on the Embraer so it's largely irrelevant. If you are looking at DEC then the chances are quite slim, if you are looking at first officer positions then you never know. If you don't get in straight away then you will probably realise your bid reasonably quickly dependant on attrition. If the industry goes on lockdown then forget it. As for sim seat filling, it's irrelevant where you're based, if you're on standby and they need you then you'll sim seat fill. It's not that common an occurrence using the same person over and over.