Retro: I think it's been done to death, here and elsewhere, and ultimately 4468 says it all: its a massive unknown.
Ellan: look in the comments to a previous thread on there. Not the most recent one. Can't remember which. Expect the "uproar" when the June and onwards plan is released, if my understanding is correct.
Re freezes - it really doesn't mean anything - if one was unfrozen, and one's fleet was more underestablished than first anticipated, there's nothing to stop LH DEP taking place to protect the choke point. Didn't we see that 2 years ago?