Erdogan launches attack on Kurds’ stronghold in Syria
Turkey has launched an attack on a US-backed Kurdish militia operating in northwestern Syria after President Erdogan vowed to “tear down” the group’s border strongholds. Convoys of Turkish tanks are lining up outside Afrin, a small island of territory in Idlib province controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ahead of an all-out assault, the Turkish army is pounding the area with artillery from its positions inside Idlib. “Our preparations have been completed. The operation could start at any time, and then will come the turn of other regions,” said Mr Erdogan.
The implicit threat against not just Afrin but the swathe of northern Syria controlled by the Kurds — with US military support — could bring two Nato allies into armed confrontation. The US announced at the weekend that it is helping the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition dominated by the YPG, to set up a 30,000-strong border force to protect the area it has captured along its frontlines with Turkey, Iraq, and Syrian regime forces. The YPG, for its part, promised Turkey a fight. “The Kurdish people will rise up as a whole. It will be total warfare,” said Saleh Muslim, former head of the group’s political wing.
An assault on Afrin would be the biggest Turkish operation inside Syria since the summer of 2016, when special forces soldiers crossed the border to confront Isis. That brought the Turkish military and its rebel allies up against US-backed Kurdish forces in the same area, taking two Nato member states to the brink of battle for the first time since the 1974 Cyprus conflict......
Kurdish officials have told
The Times that they will not relinquish any of the territory they have won. Mr Erdogan, however, has grown increasingly pugnacious as it has become clear that the US will not be scaling down its support for the SDF. “Here is what we say to all our allies and friends: lower your flags on the terrorist organisation yourselves so that we won’t have to hand those flags over to you ourselves,” he said yesterday. “Rip your insignia off the terrorists’ uniforms so that we won’t have to bury them alongside terrorists.”
Until recently, the various state players involved in Syria’s conflict had taken steps towards peace. Turkey and Russia had agreed to guarantee ceasefires in four de-escalation areas, including Idlib. The details came through the Astana process, brokered by Turkey, Russia and Iran, which has overtaken the UN-backed Geneva negotiations as the main forum for dialogue between President Assad and the opposition. Turkey, which has supported the opposition and some armed rebel groups since the start of the conflict, has established military lookout points inside the province as part of the agreement.
However, that détente is now unravelling. The Syrian army, backed by Russia and Iran, is advancing into the rebel-held areas of Idlib province from the south, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing from their homes towards the Turkish border. That has breached the de-escalation agreement and provoked anger from Ankara. Binali Yildirim, the Turkish prime minister, warned on Friday that the assault could have “dire consequences” for the Astana process.
Russia, although opposed to the setting up of an SDF border force, has invited Kurdish representatives to peace talks in Sochi next month, a move that Turkey opposes.
“Erdogan might have thought the window of opportunity for an attack on Afrin might be closing if the Astana process fails. This is one of the main reasons he chose this moment to signal the operation,” said Guney Yildiz, from the European Council on Foreign Relations. “However, there isn’t enough international support for a Turkish operation against Afrin. The operation is also militarily extremely risky.”