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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:49   #3881 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
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"If they can lose a 777, it doesn't bode well for them picking up a bomb laden hostile fighter."

And we all know who lost FOUR medium jets in their backyard at the start of this millennium, don't we???!!!!

The sheer and utter arrogance leaves me bemused if not slightly annoyed!!!

Last edited by BARKINGMAD; 15th Mar 2014 at 11:49. Reason: Lousy spelling
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:51   #3882 (permalink)
 
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Possible alternative

Not sure if this is possible (only fly domestically) if this was well planned, couldn't the pilot/hijacker have already entered a flight plan into the system earlier that day, then when at the cross over from one FIA to another, turn off the xpndr, change course and altitude, then fly along for a bit (with all other communication turned off) then at another FIA boundary call along the lines of "xxx centre, this is embraer 107 at FL290 for xxx, we are experiencing xpndr issues..." The controller looks up the flight plan and pilot flies along giving position reports etc under the previously entered flight plan call sign? Would the new controller check with the previous region? The best way to hide a tree is in a forest, they simply became another flight with a malfunctioning xpndr (unless they can mod the hex code or just run mode c) and proceed normally. What other flight plans or flights just happened to be going the same direction on the same day and time?
As good a theory as any or completely off the mark?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:52   #3883 (permalink)
 
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Going back to reports of mobile phones ringing - maybe that was when the aircraft was still airbourne, over land and after it was overdue at destination?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:52   #3884 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
We may never know what happened on board this plane. If somebody can switch off the ACARS and Transponder then they may have the ability to switch off the CVR and FDR.
They can't (Easily) do that BUT the CVR only records 2 hours and the DFDR may simply tell us, roughly, what we already know.

So we may never get to the facts of what actually happened and why??
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:54   #3885 (permalink)
 
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Comms with Ground - Debunking and Spectulation

Quote:
MikeBanahan

If there is a conspiracy involving collaborators on the ground, it has already been pointed out that satellite phone contact would probably work from inside the plane, especially near a window. A small hand-held VHF set would be problematic and give very restricted reliable range of miles or tens of miles unless you were lucky.
I respectfully disagree - I've operated scanners on commercial aircraft and received VHF/UHF simplex @5W from hundreds of KM away. I understand that the aircraft implies some challenging RF attenuation characteristics, but it would be entirely possible to establish simplex VHF using a small dipole attached to the window of the flight deck.

I cannot, however, disagree with the fact that it would be possible to establish communications using a satellite phone from the flight deck.

There are a few choices of satellite phone providers: in a theoretical scenario where the person or people operating the aircraft after its disappearance communicate with ground crew using satellite technology, only a few providers become applicable:

Iridium: Iridium operate a large constellation of satellites in low earth orbit - if the parties in question used Iridium to communicate, it is highly likely that the phone was in visibility of multiple satellites. The number of satellites in the Iridium constellation would make it an excellent choice for someone who NEEDED comms with ground crew.

Thuraya: Thuraya operate a number of satellites in geosynchronous orbit, meaning that establishing a link from the flight deck window would require the satellite to be positioned correctly, or for the aircraft to be maneuvered into a position where line of site is achievable.

GlobalStar: GlobalStar has been plagued by network problems and have operational issues. They would be a poor choice for ground communications and anyone who needed communications for successful completion would be unlikely to choose GlobalStar.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:56   #3886 (permalink)
 
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Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:59   #3887 (permalink)
 
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Dexta

Highly unlikely.
The ATCO would have checked adjacent ATCCS to discover why the info had not been passed by them.
I cannot imagine that he would simply have accepted such a flight without investigation.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:59   #3888 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
Assuming the plane has flown straight. If it has flown zig-zag or circles that would not help.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:00   #3889 (permalink)
 
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Emergency Locators

Previous post removed about ELT.

I will tone it down.

Complete lack of any ELT, emergency locators, would mean that the aircraft is at the bottom of the ocean or landed somewhere but the crew subdued and not able to activate any of the beacons.

These of course could be used in the air but no evidence of their use.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:07   #3890 (permalink)
 
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Tailgating scenario

Those without any experience in tailgating are allowed to post whilst those with actual experience and politely skeptical are modded out.

Military radars are extremely sensitive and a B777 is a huge target compared to a stealth fighter. Tailgating would depend on slant range and it's unlikely that you would get across India via an air route without being detected by one of many military radars. You might get by an ATC radar that depended solely on transponders.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:07   #3891 (permalink)
tuj
 
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Malaysia PM: Malaysia Airlines probe refocusing on passengers, crew - CNN.com
Quote:
Air traffic controllers outside Kuala Lumpur said they lost contact with the plane on March 8 at 1:30 a.m. local time, about 45 minutes after takeoff. The Prime Minister said its last communication with a satellite was at 8:11 a.m. the same day, but its precise location at the time was unclear.
Investigators are using such signals to determine how long and far it flew after it went incommunicado.
Flew on for nearly 7 hours? Is this a red herring? The newest search box is HUGE...surely someone could narrow this down?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:08   #3892 (permalink)
 
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ANA1936

Of course, how stupid of me, just the IOR satelite!

So intersect that with a fuel/flt time arc from the last "known" point and, assuming the various pings suggest a constant track, it is indeed likely to be toward the western end of the northern arc.

But someone knows the arcs of each of those pings ... and the northern arc in my opinion would remain at roughly the same distance from the satelite whilst the southern could well vary in distance considerably.

Last edited by daikilo; 15th Mar 2014 at 12:14. Reason: more thought
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:09   #3893 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rory166 View Post
May I invite anyone who wants to post anything other than hard information to our new and exciting chat about MH370 on the spectators balcony.
It can be found here -> MH370 Chat and Speculation
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:11   #3894 (permalink)
 
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@ana1936:
Quote:
There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
You ought to add one more constraint: erase any portion of the shaded circles and arcs which would require crossing a known radar range. While we can't be sure the radar operator was alert and inquisitive on the night in question, we can be sure that data will be reviewed and analyzed the same way the Malaysian radar data was shared with investigators.

I personally would put my next paycheck on that analysis already being done by now.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:13   #3895 (permalink)


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Full disclosure: I have no relationship to planes so I bow down to you gods, I am but a lowly analyst who has studied threat groups as part of my work.

Quote:
Any organised terrorist group would have claimed their prize by now as not to do so would be unproductive in their misplaced eyes to their cause.
I wouldn't take this off the table so fast. In this day and age people seem to only remember the kinetic actions of these threat groups. Terror groups work on fear which by the looks of things this event has avoided. Maybe the passengers are now hostages who will be used as bargaining chips to trade for captured comrades. Maybe this could happen again which then would put people on edge.

Perhaps they are waiting to get into a secure location before making any comment or taking their next action. Particularly in the short term there is no rush to claim responsibility.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:18   #3896 (permalink)
 
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The Malay Peninsula is not remotely as covered by military radar as India, but I agree that there's some explaining to do in this case. I've flown over both places hundreds of times and there is no comparison. India is on constant alert because of certain neighbours and has a vastly bigger air force.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:21   #3897 (permalink)
 
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Thanks everyone.

I agree that the simple plan above to locate the plane does assume not many zig zags in the last 6 hours and it does not take account of a path needing to avoid radar.

However if you assume the plane goes fairly straight for the last six hours, covering say about 4000km from the Andaman sea, then there are only two final resting places on the red arcs/corridors.

They seem to be a northern one at 37N, 68E in northern Pakistan and a southern one at 25S, 91E about 2000km west of Perth.

The northern destination seems slightly more attractive but goes through Indian radar coverage.

The southern one seems a very sad place to end up.

Last edited by ana1936; 15th Mar 2014 at 12:22. Reason: typo
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:21   #3898 (permalink)
 
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Have only spent a little time around satellite but those arcs dont look like anything ive seen before. The inmarsat reports ive seen shows the bgan data going through a specific cell number not from some arc?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:24   #3899 (permalink)
 
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Apologies, has the actual amount of fuel on board at departure been confirmed?

As carriers often carry CAT B fuel to China so double the the normal amount.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:24   #3900 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
The Malay Peninsula is not remotely as covered by military radar as India, but I agree that there's some explaining to do in this case. I've flown over both places hundreds of times and there is no comparison. India is on constant alert because of certain neighbours and has a vastly bigger air force.
For which reason also, I find the "Tailgating" theory unpersuasive on balnce to get a silent 772 right over the sub-continent? The Southern route seems more plausible. If 1000 Km West of PER, wouldn't that already be getting tracked by Australian Military eyes? Quite apart from the huge Australian/NSA tracking station up on the Northern Coast of WA?
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