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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:56   #3881 (permalink)
 
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Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:59   #3882 (permalink)
 
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Dexta

Highly unlikely.
The ATCO would have checked adjacent ATCCS to discover why the info had not been passed by them.
I cannot imagine that he would simply have accepted such a flight without investigation.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:59   #3883 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
Assuming the plane has flown straight. If it has flown zig-zag or circles that would not help.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:00   #3884 (permalink)
 
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Emergency Locators

Previous post removed about ELT.

I will tone it down.

Complete lack of any ELT, emergency locators, would mean that the aircraft is at the bottom of the ocean or landed somewhere but the crew subdued and not able to activate any of the beacons.

These of course could be used in the air but no evidence of their use.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:07   #3885 (permalink)
 
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Tailgating scenario

Those without any experience in tailgating are allowed to post whilst those with actual experience and politely skeptical are modded out.

Military radars are extremely sensitive and a B777 is a huge target compared to a stealth fighter. Tailgating would depend on slant range and it's unlikely that you would get across India via an air route without being detected by one of many military radars. You might get by an ATC radar that depended solely on transponders.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:07   #3886 (permalink)
tuj
 
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Malaysia PM: Malaysia Airlines probe refocusing on passengers, crew - CNN.com
Quote:
Air traffic controllers outside Kuala Lumpur said they lost contact with the plane on March 8 at 1:30 a.m. local time, about 45 minutes after takeoff. The Prime Minister said its last communication with a satellite was at 8:11 a.m. the same day, but its precise location at the time was unclear.
Investigators are using such signals to determine how long and far it flew after it went incommunicado.
Flew on for nearly 7 hours? Is this a red herring? The newest search box is HUGE...surely someone could narrow this down?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:08   #3887 (permalink)
 
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ANA1936

Of course, how stupid of me, just the IOR satelite!

So intersect that with a fuel/flt time arc from the last "known" point and, assuming the various pings suggest a constant track, it is indeed likely to be toward the western end of the northern arc.

But someone knows the arcs of each of those pings ... and the northern arc in my opinion would remain at roughly the same distance from the satelite whilst the southern could well vary in distance considerably.

Last edited by daikilo; 15th Mar 2014 at 12:14. Reason: more thought
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:09   #3888 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rory166 View Post
May I invite anyone who wants to post anything other than hard information to our new and exciting chat about MH370 on the spectators balcony.
It can be found here -> MH370 Chat and Speculation
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:11   #3889 (permalink)
 
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@ana1936:
Quote:
There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
You ought to add one more constraint: erase any portion of the shaded circles and arcs which would require crossing a known radar range. While we can't be sure the radar operator was alert and inquisitive on the night in question, we can be sure that data will be reviewed and analyzed the same way the Malaysian radar data was shared with investigators.

I personally would put my next paycheck on that analysis already being done by now.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:13   #3890 (permalink)


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Full disclosure: I have no relationship to planes so I bow down to you gods, I am but a lowly analyst who has studied threat groups as part of my work.

Quote:
Any organised terrorist group would have claimed their prize by now as not to do so would be unproductive in their misplaced eyes to their cause.
I wouldn't take this off the table so fast. In this day and age people seem to only remember the kinetic actions of these threat groups. Terror groups work on fear which by the looks of things this event has avoided. Maybe the passengers are now hostages who will be used as bargaining chips to trade for captured comrades. Maybe this could happen again which then would put people on edge.

Perhaps they are waiting to get into a secure location before making any comment or taking their next action. Particularly in the short term there is no rush to claim responsibility.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:18   #3891 (permalink)
 
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The Malay Peninsula is not remotely as covered by military radar as India, but I agree that there's some explaining to do in this case. I've flown over both places hundreds of times and there is no comparison. India is on constant alert because of certain neighbours and has a vastly bigger air force.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:21   #3892 (permalink)
 
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Thanks everyone.

I agree that the simple plan above to locate the plane does assume not many zig zags in the last 6 hours and it does not take account of a path needing to avoid radar.

However if you assume the plane goes fairly straight for the last six hours, covering say about 4000km from the Andaman sea, then there are only two final resting places on the red arcs/corridors.

They seem to be a northern one at 37N, 68E in northern Pakistan and a southern one at 25S, 91E about 2000km west of Perth.

The northern destination seems slightly more attractive but goes through Indian radar coverage.

The southern one seems a very sad place to end up.

Last edited by ana1936; 15th Mar 2014 at 12:22. Reason: typo
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:21   #3893 (permalink)
 
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Have only spent a little time around satellite but those arcs dont look like anything ive seen before. The inmarsat reports ive seen shows the bgan data going through a specific cell number not from some arc?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:24   #3894 (permalink)
 
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Apologies, has the actual amount of fuel on board at departure been confirmed?

As carriers often carry CAT B fuel to China so double the the normal amount.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:24   #3895 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
The Malay Peninsula is not remotely as covered by military radar as India, but I agree that there's some explaining to do in this case. I've flown over both places hundreds of times and there is no comparison. India is on constant alert because of certain neighbours and has a vastly bigger air force.
For which reason also, I find the "Tailgating" theory unpersuasive on balnce to get a silent 772 right over the sub-continent? The Southern route seems more plausible. If 1000 Km West of PER, wouldn't that already be getting tracked by Australian Military eyes? Quite apart from the huge Australian/NSA tracking station up on the Northern Coast of WA?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:29   #3896 (permalink)
 
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On JOTR and AC location near Perth

Quote:
philipat

In Australia maybe. Does not explain how a 772 could fly right across Peninsular Malaysia entirely unchallenged.
Given the spectrum allocations granted to JORN, the enforcement of that spectrum with Australia, especially north of the receivers and the publically understated capabilities of the system, it's safe to say that, unless JOR2 was down for operational maintenance at the time of the incident, then the aircraft was nowhere near the operational airspace at the time the incident occurred.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:29   #3897 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philipat View Post
For which reason also, I find the "Tailgating" theory unpersuasive on balnce to get a silent 772 right over the sub-continent? The Southern route seems more plausible. If 1000 Km West of PER, wouldn't that already be getting tracked by Australian Military eyes?
You can guarantee, they have already looked as soon as Military Radar tracking was mentioned & a radar plot discussed....at least I hope so
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:30   #3898 (permalink)
 
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That was 1000NM West of PER, not 1000km. A rather substantial difference.

If the aircraft went South, it would be because there was extra fuel uploaded to make Africa.

There's only two airstrips in the Northern Indian Ocean (besides DG) - CCK (8000') and XCH (6900').
Both of these are well-established Australian territories with top-class communications, and I'm sure we'd have heard by now if a stray B777 rolled up to either. Unless it was a weekend, of course.

Last edited by onetrack; 15th Mar 2014 at 12:44. Reason: addendum ..
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:34   #3899 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
tichy

Have only spent a little time around satellite but those arcs dont look like anything ive seen before. The inmarsat reports ive seen shows the bgan data going through a specific cell number not from some arc?
Inmarsat's BGAN network is on a different satellite platform than the one which provides backhaul for ACARS.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:36   #3900 (permalink)
 
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@onetrack

Quote:
That was 1000NM West of PER, not 1000km. A rather substantial difference.
Beg pardon and stand corrected. But the question remains the same. Would that area be controlled from Australia or Diego Garcia?
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