Aircraft Crash in Moscow
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This is all endless speculation.
The crew+a/c hit mostly a snow lined concrete wall and the impact was unsurvivable.
Period.
I also saw the interview, widely diffused on russian TV
(go question the wisdom and credibility instinctively!).
I challenge anyone to bang their head against the remains of disintegrating (car/aircraft/boat/) without a helmet, decellerating from 90mph+, & remember anything worth anything.
They did roughly the same thing for the (ONE) survivor of the Jaroslavl Yak42 accident.
I think this kind of media intervention is blatent disrespect for the deceased.
The crew+a/c hit mostly a snow lined concrete wall and the impact was unsurvivable.
Period.
I also saw the interview, widely diffused on russian TV
(go question the wisdom and credibility instinctively!).
I challenge anyone to bang their head against the remains of disintegrating (car/aircraft/boat/) without a helmet, decellerating from 90mph+, & remember anything worth anything.
They did roughly the same thing for the (ONE) survivor of the Jaroslavl Yak42 accident.
I think this kind of media intervention is blatent disrespect for the deceased.
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A lot of speculation on this forum.
However that is human nature. We all want to know. What interests me is will the Russian authorities come up with a true and honest report eventually?
However that is human nature. We all want to know. What interests me is will the Russian authorities come up with a true and honest report eventually?
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Big country, long holidays
Russian only today opened for business after the New Year and subsequent Orthodox Christmas holidays. It's unlikely that much analytical investigation activity (as opposed to immediate evidence gathering) has taken place so far.
EDIT: Indeed, the party lasts even longer that I thought. Jan 9th is the first working day of the year 2013.
EDIT: Indeed, the party lasts even longer that I thought. Jan 9th is the first working day of the year 2013.
Last edited by kaaremi; 8th Jan 2013 at 12:38.
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- End of long holidays (first working day) will be tomorrow.
- MAK have no less than 30 days for report - 15 for evidence gathering and 15 for composing report.
- WHAT was done is already known and there is amedment for FCOM about that (no indication of reverse deployment - immediately put RCL to OFF).
- WHY that was done is still unclear.
- MAK have no less than 30 days for report - 15 for evidence gathering and 15 for composing report.
- WHAT was done is already known and there is amedment for FCOM about that (no indication of reverse deployment - immediately put RCL to OFF).
- WHY that was done is still unclear.
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The nature of the damage - the fuselage splitting into 3 pieces - looks to me like it was caused by vertical forces, during the bumpy ride down the hill into the ditch, as opposed to the airplane slamming into something head on.
There will be a quick and dirty summary of the accident sent to the operators which someone will hopefully leak, once Russia is open for business again.
There will be a quick and dirty summary of the accident sent to the operators which someone will hopefully leak, once Russia is open for business again.
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I would not rule out some NU prior to impact with the downslope, perhaps due some lift from the wings. With tail impact, the nose would have dropped with force, and rebounded, perhaps allowing the front of the aircraft to 'hurdle' up and plant the fuselage pointing upward, rather than collapsing at impact directly into the roadway.
All guesses, but the general discussion is a good one.
All guesses, but the general discussion is a good one.
Hotel Tango, suspect Vovachan has been watching all this with great interest from the beginning, as most of us have.
I think most of us are wondering at the dynamics of the sled ride down the several levels of embankment and how speed influenced the final outcome. Several posters' studied comments indicate a speed of less than 80 knots, which might be suggestive of the nosewheel hitting, in quick succession, descending levels of embankment and exerting an upward moment before finally breaking the fuselage just above or just behind the nose gear. That might help to explain the main fuselage coming to rest pointing up - or it could be that, once the nose had broken off, the new aft CG was sufficient to accomplish an upward slant; the motorway clip focusses on the cars and highway debris and doesn't show how the fuselage reacted.
The bottom-upwards compression of the nose section itself: as the fuselage fractured, one can imagine it being leveraged nose-up as the fuselage cracked, just prior to hitting the final wall. Whether survivable or not, Kulverstuka's photos of stowed shoulder straps make you want to cry.
I think most of us are wondering at the dynamics of the sled ride down the several levels of embankment and how speed influenced the final outcome. Several posters' studied comments indicate a speed of less than 80 knots, which might be suggestive of the nosewheel hitting, in quick succession, descending levels of embankment and exerting an upward moment before finally breaking the fuselage just above or just behind the nose gear. That might help to explain the main fuselage coming to rest pointing up - or it could be that, once the nose had broken off, the new aft CG was sufficient to accomplish an upward slant; the motorway clip focusses on the cars and highway debris and doesn't show how the fuselage reacted.
The bottom-upwards compression of the nose section itself: as the fuselage fractured, one can imagine it being leveraged nose-up as the fuselage cracked, just prior to hitting the final wall. Whether survivable or not, Kulverstuka's photos of stowed shoulder straps make you want to cry.
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Converging speed
Machinbird,
That's a good point... the aircraft is indeed moving to the left in the camera field of view. However, the "fixed position in the camera" argument only applies when the relative distance between the closing objects is much larger than their closest separation.
The aircraft hits the edge of the roadway over 3 seconds ahead of when the car passes the same spot, having been visible previously for only 2 seconds, so I don't think that argument applies here.
Assuming these time gaps, and a 20-degree field of view for the camera, I get a plane speed is about 0.65x the car speed.
According to Google Earth the lampposts are 40m apart.
The car covers 4 gaps in about 7 seconds, so travels at 23+-5 m/s, about 45 knots.
That would make the plane speed then only 30 knots, which seems low, but about the same as the well-determined speed of the wheel, which is still plausible.
Edited - well, given MAK now say 190kph off the end, I must have been counting the grossly wrong bit of the aircraft past a mark.
That's a good point... the aircraft is indeed moving to the left in the camera field of view. However, the "fixed position in the camera" argument only applies when the relative distance between the closing objects is much larger than their closest separation.
The aircraft hits the edge of the roadway over 3 seconds ahead of when the car passes the same spot, having been visible previously for only 2 seconds, so I don't think that argument applies here.
Assuming these time gaps, and a 20-degree field of view for the camera, I get a plane speed is about 0.65x the car speed.
According to Google Earth the lampposts are 40m apart.
The car covers 4 gaps in about 7 seconds, so travels at 23+-5 m/s, about 45 knots.
That would make the plane speed then only 30 knots, which seems low, but about the same as the well-determined speed of the wheel, which is still plausible.
Edited - well, given MAK now say 190kph off the end, I must have been counting the grossly wrong bit of the aircraft past a mark.
Last edited by awblain; 31st Jan 2013 at 21:52. Reason: Result was a pile of nonsense
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Interesting to evaluate the swath of cut down lights/localizer/fencing/towers, marks on the downhill side, gouge entering the lowest canal, and significant compression damage prior to fuselage separation:
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(forumavia)
Photo made at VARZ (AviaRepair)
©
Lucky:
First-hand information from a person who was at the scene within a few minutes - there was no trace of the wheels on the ground before the edge of the pit.
First-hand information from a person who was at the scene within a few minutes - there was no trace of the wheels on the ground before the edge of the pit.
©
Last edited by Kulverstukas; 9th Jan 2013 at 10:42.
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Alas, nothing in this article that was not mentioned/discussed in this thread. Nothing that we can take as "confirmed facts, not leaks" also (landing speed, CVR/FDR readouts etc.)
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Metaphorically, an uppercut to the chin can knock you out as fast as a punch on the nose. Vertical or horizontal, the force was....enough.
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Prior to Machaca's three catches, the a/c was well right of the roadway, and still in the :23 stamp. Of more interest would be all the :23 catches, for reference' sake. It is assumed by the damage that the zone of the last 100 meters has seen rapid decel. (any still that shares a time stamp with another is the same catch, until deciphered in the camera?) "A full second later" not necessarily....
Still looking for wheel tracks on the apron above the terraced drop off.
I see the locals are preserving the scene by parking heavy trucks on it....
For the four years I have been posting here, Machaca has been responsible for supplying exquisite photography of all kinds...
Many thanks to you, Sir.....
Still looking for wheel tracks on the apron above the terraced drop off.
I see the locals are preserving the scene by parking heavy trucks on it....
For the four years I have been posting here, Machaca has been responsible for supplying exquisite photography of all kinds...
Many thanks to you, Sir.....
Last edited by Lyman; 9th Jan 2013 at 16:01.