Are the Halcyon Days of Private Flying Over?

[fireflybob]

I recall asking my father in the late 50s how much it cost to fly - his reply "A bob a minute" - that was £3 per hour. In those days on a nice Sunday afternoon there would be circa 12 (yes thats twelve) a/c in the circuit (incidentally ALL non radio!).

Given the astronomical rise in the fuel prices and the punitive taxes imposed the HM "Government" and the ever increasing amount of bureaucratic nonsense what do you think the future of Private Flying and General Aviation will be in the UK?

[TheOddOne]

what do you think the future of Private Flying and General Aviation will be in the UK?

It'll be whatever people really want it to be. Even with the recent sudden rises in fuel costs, flying an SEP is relatively cheaper than it was when I started 26 years ago. There was only one school at our airfield, now there are 2 and another outfit doing a good business in post-licence type conversions. There is demand to keep all these businesses going.

When I'm flying, I can't help but notice all the farm strips that have sprung up in the past 15 years or so. Plenty of literally 'grass-roots' flying there, too. You can still take off, fly around and land without having to seek or recieve permission from any official or even talk to anyone on the radio. I don't hear that anyone is planning on changing this. You can't have much more freedom than that, surely!

Don't want to fly SEP? Why, just look at the myriad new VLA types, not to say the very capable microlights, in fact the edges around all these types is blurring.

Of course, there will always be people who seem to take a perverse satisfaction in being doom-sayers who enjoy nothing more than saying
'there, I told you so!' Just don't be one of those, retain a positive outlook and we'll be flying for just as long as we want to.

Cheers,
TheOddOne

[Rod1]

Now let me think…

Rod1:}

[fireflybob]

The OddOne, thanks for the reply.

Even with the recent sudden rises in fuel costs, flying an SEP is relatively cheaper than it was when I started 26 years ago.

Really, is that true?

[IO540]

I am sure flying is no more expensive than it was say 30 years ago.

Fuel, adjusted for inflation, costs no more, and I bet you that the same goes for general operating costs.

The circumstances have of course changed massively. These days most people in GA are looked at as anoraks (and it isn't far wrong) so I guess that while "I am a private pilot" might have been a good line at a 1970s party, it is less advisable today (if you are trying to pull) :)

The machinery has hardly changed. I have a photo I took of my local airport from 1979. The only change is the perimeter fence. The planes are exactly the same. Back then many must have been nearly new; now they are decrepit old heaps of junk. This suggests there was a lot more money around back then - how many people do you see buying new Cessnas or Pipers (or anything else new) today?

There are significant regulatory dangers to "utility" flying i.e. anything under IFR. There is pressure from airlines who would universally like to totally kill off GA. Not necessarily kill it off directly, but kill it off through equipment requirements which cannot be met in a GA plane. I don't think this will happen, because of ICAO obligations and pressure from pilots.

But I think purely-VFR "sports" flying, without a purpose, outside CAS, has a very secure future, and will be served by a vast choice of Rotax engined plastic buckets.

As for "halcyon days", those ended about 1946.

[Crash one]

If flying cost £3 an hr in 1950, what was the average wage then?
I was at that time still at school but in '55 I got £5 a week working in a garage, So flying at 60% of a 15yr old's weeks pay per hr, how does that compare today? I think it's a lot cheaper today.

[IO540]

Today's 15 year old will spit at anything less than the NMW.

You need to offer double that if you want him to take the Ipod plugs out of his ears :)

[Crash one]

Exactly my point! so the little sh1t could prob afford 5 times what I could in them olden days.

[Mike Cross]

vinegrette is a slight mis-spelling of what I put on my salad. A vignette would be nearer the mark.

In 1974 I paid £10 an hour for dual in a Pup 150.

[S-Works]

In 1974 I still thought breasts were for food........ :p

[Dan Dare]

You can still fly Noddy (http://www.afors.com/index.php?page=adview&adid=8530&imid=0) for a bob a minute (5 pence a minute for you youngsters) :)

[eharding]

You can still fly Noddy for a bob a minute (5 pence a minute for you youngsters)


The heater is crap though.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5285620872175100859&q=Noddy+snow&ei=t95eSJzODoPijAKgvtC7CQ

[jabberwok]

Really, is that true?

Yes. In 1972 our (new) Aerobat was 6.50/hr and I was earning about 75 quid a month. At 120 quid for a tired C172 these days it's proportionately less for hiring the aircraft - but other costs may narrow the gap.

[IO540]

In 1974 I still thought breasts were for food.

I didn't!!!

[Fuji Abound]

Either a slow developer or a young whippet then? :)

[Mike Cross]

Bose, I do hope you weren't the inspiration for this!
Harvey and Jane arrive at Harvey's parents house, and he introduces them to his girlfriend. They begin to get on well, when Harvey complains that he is hungry, and wants "bitty". His Mother initially refuses, saying that "bitty" will spoil his appetite, but eventually gives in. She unbuttons her blouse, and Harvey crawls on her lap and begins breastfeeding.
http://www.davidwalliams.com/full/lbseries2/ep1/PDVD_110.jpg

[Rod1]

“Don't want to fly SEP? Why, just look at the myriad new VLA types”

I would just like to politely point out that a VLA is an SEP (or both are group A if you prefer)

If you want to fly VFR on a budget then the LAA/BMAA is a very strong option. In the 70’s there were fewer than 1000 permit aircraft flying. Now the number is above 6000 and another 2500 ish are under construction. This is a huge change compared to the 70’s. Current c of a aircraft (SEP’s) are around 7000 (excluding CAA administered permits). Approximately 50% of the aircraft at my strip are of designs which did not exist in the 80’s let alone the 70’s do the hardware has changed significantly.

Rod1

[IO540]

Has the hardware actually changed? Apart from the Rotax which wasn't around back then.

The fibreglass technology is pretty old.

The low weight has been achieved by cutting corners everywhere, from the safe business of stripping out all possible sound/thermal insulation, to the more dubious practice of very flimsy control linkages. A lot of the ultralights are "hang glider construction" standard, with a cockpit to keep the bulk of the rain out.

To get down to say 750kg, you don't get something for nothing. Short of building every bit of the whole ship out of carbon/kevlar (which would make it cost £200k+) .

[dont overfil]

Oops. I can see a thread split starting!
DO.

[Fuji Abound]

Well here is my view.

We all know the economy is fragile.

For most flying is a leisure activity - and these are usually the first to suffer.

In addition, many other leisure providers are able to reduce their fees to encourage participation. For example, you will hardly find a golf course now that charges a joining fee. However, most aviation providers are already living close to the margin so there is very little scope for reducing their rates any further.

Whilst some the changes proposed by EASA may reduce the regulatory burden, regulatory changes in any industry produce uncertainty and an initial increase in costs.

In many parts of Europe GA is almost dead. For example Calais has two aero clubs - both have ceased to trade. Their is only one active club on the airfield which operates microlights and even then "active" is a relative word.

For these reasons and others in the short term I would conclude the future is not bright.

[IO540]

I agree Fuji, though I would say that leisure activity budgets fluctuate wildly according to how well people feel about their financial security generally, and right now (property values declining, etc) not many people do fell all that well about theirs.

Give it a few years and things could well be very different.

Look at the absolutely massive downturn in GA in the 1970s. Activity went down by (of the order of) 5 to 10 times in the USA and elsewhere - as did new aircraft sales.

Today's decline is nothing compared to that.

[Fuji Abound]

Well you are also correct and it is important to remain positive.

There is an ongoing shift of wealth in the UK. There is little doubt the fraction of the population that has large disposable incomes is growing and will probably continue to grow as the economic climate deteriorates.

Of course it is up to GA to attract as large a number of pilots from that fraction as it can.

The danger is that aviation is a minority "sport". Ten wealthy individuals will not keep an airfield solvent, whereas ten wealthy individuals and twenty less wealthy individuals will.

We may see the intermediate sized airfields as vulnerable as well as the larger maintenance organisations that are totally reliant on GA. We may also see the schools that rely solely on ab initio training as vulnerable.

On a wider issue it will be interesting to see what the future holds for the price of fuel. There are those that say the days of "cheap" fuel are gone forever. At the moment the tensions in the ME between Israel and the Arab world and in particular Iran are unlikely to go away in a hurry. Other producers are not minded to increase production and / or are capable of doing so.

The world order is changing. No longer are the Americans the dominant super power. Their influence is diminishing, even if they are kicking and screaming about it. Unfortunately we have even less influence now that we ever have.

I am not sure I would want to be starting out today but then again you certainly would not be short of a challenge or two!

[Rod1]

“To get down to say 750kg, you don't get something for nothing. Short of building every bit of the whole ship out of carbon/kevlar (which would make it cost £200k+) .”

The all carbon aircraft cost about 50K all in and come in at about 230 – 270kg. Mine is 253kg and passes CS-VLA (ie it is not going to fall apart). This is the situation as of today, not some theoretical guess of what might be.

From an LAA / BMAA perspective we have many more strips than at any time, we have much more capable aircraft, much lower fuel and maintenance costs. For the fun flyer life has never been so good! :ok:

Rod1

[Fuji Abound]

From an LAA / BMAA perspective we have many more strips than at any time, we have much more capable aircraft, much lower fuel and maintenance costs. For the fun flyer life has never been so good!

Yes, and their is no doubt in my mind that is where leisure aviation is going.

You shed a load of regulatory burden, you have the capability to operate out of grass strips and / or accept you dont need or want all the support services that go with larger airports and therefore the ground infra structure costs diddly squat to operate.

In my mind (irrationally I know) safety remains an issue. The record is in fact very good but IO mkaes some sound points about the often all to flimsy construction of some LAA types. However, I forsee the use of BPS becoming far more common and rightly so.

Moreover I suppose as the Italians may be about to demonstrate it is still possible to produce a very light twin using Rotax engines with the associated safety "advantages", even if they will not qualify as LAA types at the moment. That said who is to stop someone fitting a Rotax in the front and back of an LAA type or a contra rotating engine on the wing to avoid most of the asymetric issues which give twins a bad name and yet still get some where near the weight allowance for aircraft of this type.

Moreover as numbers increase the manufacturers will respond. We are already seeing the likes of Garmin producing versions of their G1000 system specifically designed for LAA types. As the market responds so are Garmin likely to respond in pricing the product to suite the market.

In almost every way LAA types make heaps of sense for the future of GA in exactly the same way as the new electric Smart car will for every commuter journey even if old habits die hard.

[Wessex Boy]

I paid £65-85/hour in the mid-late '80s for C150 and C172s I pay £103/hour for a Warrior now, it is much cheaper comparatively now.

also as a Comparison, as soon as I passed Air Loadmaster Ground school and my pay doubled (£6k-£12k) in October '88 I went out an bought a new Seat Ibiza 1.2 for £6,700 (They had the best deal and most interest in selling to a 19 year old) the same/better spec car is now £8,995, not much of an increase in 20 years!

[Rod1]

“G1000 system specifically designed for LAA types”

Much better non certified stuff available at a fraction of the price.

Rod1

[Captain Smithy]

Interesting points being made on this thread. Personally I think General Aviation will continue to survive, despite what is currently going on (high oil prices, economic woes, environmentalism). Whilst I'm not old enough to remember the troubles of the 70s looking at history it does seem to draw parallels with today's problems... in the 70s there was tension in the Middle-East, oil prices went through the roof, economies were collapsing etc. Although as has been said it seems like today is small fry compared to what happened over 30 years ago.

For me it's hard not to draw the conclusion that this seems to be a cycle which is repeating itself again. Flying will unfortunately never be cheap, it never has been - it's not something which can be made cheap. Perhaps in 10-15 years' time we shall be looking back on today at the doom-and-gloom and wondering what we were all worrying about. There aigain perhaps I will be wrong!

Fuel prices I think are the main overriding concern for aviation as a whole, not just GA. Will oil continue to rise in price forever more? Are the days of "cheap" oil gone forever? It would be foolish to make a judgment now but I can't help but feel we have been here before in the 70s.

Personally I look forward to the future to see what it will bring... PPLs instructing; Corporate Aviation expanding rapidly; glass cockpits in light singles; I am keeping a watchful eye on developments with an open mind to see what the future brings for GA.

[Mike Cross]

To get down to say 750kg, you don't get something for nothing. Short of building every bit of the whole ship out of carbon/kevlar (which would make it cost £200k+) .

Shome mishtake shirley?

My 1948 Luscombe has a MAUW of 1400 lb and as far as I'm aware carbon/kevlar hadn't been invented when it was built.

450kg perhaps?

I agree with you, the paring down of what in the marine world are called scantlings to get under an arbitrary weight limit is worrying. Yes, the stress calcs will work and the test airframe will pass the load tests but you end up with something like the performance figures.
A test pilot in a brand new aircraft will be able to achieve a certain performance. That doesn't mean that Joa Soap in a twenty year old one can do the same.
In the smae way the fact that a carefully constructed prototype passed the load tests does not necessarily mean that every example thereafter is built to the same standard or that its strength several years later is the same as when new. You need to allow a bit of leeway for variations in build quality.

[Fuji Abound]

Much better non certified stuff available at a fraction of the price.

What?

Garmin's new offering is the G900X

https://buy.garmin.com/shop/shop.do?pID=419&tab=g900x#

based largely on their certified G1000.

Ignoring the price, what systems are currently available that are as capable, well proven and have the clarrity of display and robustness of the Garmins?

Moreover, can you be as certain that the company will still be around in a year, two years or five years from now.

I have not been able to find anything so I would be really interested in what is better or what is nearly as good.

[PompeyPaul]

According to http://www.measuringworth.com/ppoweruk/index.php

£3ph in 1950 is £75 today
£6.50 in 1972 is £61.81 today

So compare that with today's prices and aviation has exploded in it's expense.

[Rod1]

Have a look at the MGL Stratomaster Odyssey. This is only one of 10 or so similar systems, but it is a long established company. I have an Engine moniter called an E2 from them, which has been very good.

Rod1

[Humaround]

The prices on that site are based on the RPI, and are rather misleading. Some parts of the economy inflate far more than others.

According to that measure, the 3-bed semi in Cheltenham I bought in 1979 (and sold again 3 years later) for £12000 would today be worth £43,740... Actual price (even allowing for recent falls) is probably nearer £175,000 - £200,000.

Petrol in 1971 was £0.33 per gallon, according to RPI that would be £3.36 now. If only...

[IO540]

There is nothing uncertified which I have seen which gets anywhere near the comprehensive functionality of the G1000 - though I have not seen (with my own eyes) stuff available for the U.S. Experimental market, which I have seen in catalogues, and much of which is utterly impressive and at prices c. 1/5 of certified products.

However, as a visit to any European GA show shows, there is a lot of "glass panel" stuff out there, and some of it is very good - along the lines of the Avidyne product i.e. no integrated GPS or autopilots.

My 1948 Luscombe has a MAUW of 1400 lb

Yes Mike but you can hardly call that a tourer :) Nobody denies that a lightweight plane can be built using WW1 technology. But you still end up with a very basic construction. Flying along and you feel the cold draught going up your leg from some orifice somewhere... Anybody can do 750kg or less if they make such compromises.

[Fuji Abound]

Rod1

Thanks for the link - on the basis of the information on their site I would agree that Garmin now have some competition!

It is good to see others producing systems that have a sensible sized screen and dont look like they will fall apart in five minutes. I shall look forward to seeing that system in the flesh!

[Rod1]

Not sure we should not start another thred for the glass side of this?

The kit I am talking about has an integrated GPS, full support for a range of autopilots, full remote control of radios (from the gps database), full solid state horizon and compass, 3d vision (similar to the G1000 perspective) and full engine monitor. I am sure there are things which the G1000 will do that this will not, but at a starting price of £1295 up ( I would expect to pay about £5k for a full dual screen solution) it is very good value. C of A aircraft are of course not allowed to fit them.

Rod1

[S-Works]

Yes Mike but you can hardly call that a tourer Nobody denies that a lightweight plane can be built using WW1 technology. But you still end up with a very basic construction. Flying along and you feel the cold draught going up your leg from some orifice somewhere... Anybody can do 750kg or less if they make such compromises.

Not everyone's idea of touring is like ours where we get a kick out of the compex planning and high speed. I know you don't seem to understand this but to some people touring is about the journey not about spending 7hrs at 18,000ft with a cannula up your nose and a juice bottle to pee in just so you don't have to stop somewhere en route....... :p