ROUTE SPECULATION

[wallp]

How about some more destinations from LCY (Yes, I know some have been tried before but that doesn't mean they can't work & this is speculation)

LCY - TXL
LCY - CPH
LCY - MAN
LCY - LIS
LCY - VIE

[marko1]

Here's what I wish from Brs :-

Oslo and Stockholm
Tallinn and Riga
Athens Mykonos
Istanbul
One of the big middle eastern 3
New York
Cancun
Orlando
Toronto
Seville almeria
Banjul
Lyon Biarritz
Cologne
Zurich

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Looks like it irks some people that Wizzair use Liverpool, indeed expanding at Liverpool an obscure airport that Czech Airlines also use.

The UK-Poland market represents around 6 million pax per annum. MAN is woefully under-represented in this market, hence calls for services by Wizzair and others from there in particular. I have not noted any calls on here for Wizzair to leave Liverpool; there is a defined market for both airports. Please note that my posting did not label LPL as an obscure airport. Perhaps you think it is? Either way, its catchment area for Eastern Europe overlaps that of MAN but does not duplicate the majority of it. By the way, the same also applies to DSA and BHX ... you appear to believe this is some kind of LPL v MAN issue?

Liverpool is cheaper and half an hour down the road.

Half an hour down the road from where? This depends on one's individual location and preferred mode of transport. Early morning LPL departures and late evening LPL arrivals mean a costly hotel nightstop for me and I'm located in the MAN area. All LPL flights imply much higher ground transport costs from my location also. The customer proposition presented by using the two airports is very different (and of course this applies both ways). Densely-used routes such as those to Poland require exposure from both airports, but certainly more than the current ten weekly departures offered from MAN.

As for LPL being 'cheaper', can you tell us exactly how much cheaper than MAN it actually is (since you seem to know?). Do you suppose Ryanair are paying big bucks at MAN? I suspect that the difference paid by ULCC's at the two airports is very small indeed, and remember that airport charges at one end of a route represent a tiny proportion of the overall cost of providing a scheduled service.

[mwm991]

Its not a Brussels/Charleroi Glasgow/Prestwick big area small area comparison. Liverpool and Merseyside is a decent sized market of it's own. People seem to think its merely a pawn for Manchester and no more. There probably is a market at MAN for WIZZ but not at LPL's expense and based on their geographical diaspora in regions with multiple airports they seem to favour either one or the other. In the NW its LPL at the moment, in the same way with LTN over STN in London, DSA over LBA in Yorkshire and GLA over EDI in Scotland. They are prepared to go for the cheaper option if it means they are still centrally located to a population base.

[adfly]

SOU/BOH

I may as well throw in my 2 pence:

BOH-MAD (FR)
BOH-PSA (FR)
BOH-CIA (FR)
BOH-WAW/WMI (FR/Wizz)
BOH-KTW (Wizz)
BOH-HER (TOM)
BOH-LCA (TOM)
BOH-CCS (FR)
BOH-INN (OS)
BOH-TSF (FR)
BOH-DUB (FR)

SOU-FRA (BM/BE)
SOU-CPH (BM)
SOU-ZRH (BM)
SOU-IBZ (BE/TOM/TCX/Volotea)
SOU-MAH (BE/TOM/TCX)
SOU-VCE (BE/Volotea)
SOU-BCN (BE/VY)
SOU-FCO (VY)
SOU-TFS (TOM) (Would need a 757)
SOU-ACE (TOM (as above)
SOU-NCE (BE/HOP!)

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Liverpool and Merseyside is a decent sized market of it's own.

Agreed. Note that my postings support this view.

People seem to think its merely a pawn for Manchester and no more.

Who exactly? Is this a chip-on-the-shoulder problem?

There probably is a market at MAN for WIZZ but not at LPL's expense

Again, nobody here has called for a switch from LPL, only for the addition of MAN flights as well.

based on their geographical diaspora in regions with multiple airports they seem to favour either one or the other. In the NW its LPL at the moment, in the same way with LTN over STN in London, DSA over LBA in Yorkshire and GLA over EDI in Scotland.

Its not a Brussels/Charleroi Glasgow/Prestwick big area small area comparison.

You can't really argue these points in parallel. Are LPL/MAN fighting for broadly the same market as per BRU/CRL, GLA/PIK or not? My view is that there is sufficient disparity between the MAN and LPL catchments for Eastern Europe to justify provision of services from both airports.

They are prepared to go for the cheaper option if it means they are still centrally located to a population base.

People presume far too much weighting on the cost of airport charges at one end of a route as a proportion of the overall expense of providing a service. Strip out fuel, salaries, aircraft financing, insurance, nav charges, costs at the reciprocal airport and you will appreciate how small a deal this really is. Some special-case airports such as LHR and LCY levy much higher fees than their peers due to unique circumstances, but this is not the case at LPL or MAN. Both airports offer terms which have proven conducive to a substantial ULCC presence. So we cannot glibly claim that MAN is "expensive" and LPL is "cheap". Ryanair appear quite at ease with the deals offered by both airports ... can there be such a chasm between comparative charges levied at the two?

Note also that LPL is centrally located to a different area of population than the one to which Manchester is centrally located.

[tigertanaka]

North East wishlist:

NCL-LCY - I know the train is quick but East London to NCL is nearly 4 hours when you factor in the tube ride. BA are creaming it on the LHR-NCL route at the moment judging by what I have paid for flights and the load factors I have seen.
NCL-LGW - I know Easyjet couldnt make it stack up last time but with LGW becoming more connection friendly it might work again. A code share with BA to access their LGW routes would be ideal.
NCL-FRA - I know NCL is connected to the KL/AF & BA hubs but being connected to FRA would hugely increase my options, especially for getting to the more niche airports in Europe. I have to go to LNZ in a few weeks and I am forced to fly out of EDI and returning to LCY to avoid 2 airport changes.
NCL-OSL - Ideally it would be NCL-ARN but there is no chance of that happening. I have always been very impressed with Norwegian.
NCL-IST - lots of speculation on this over recent years. EK seem to be doing well out of NCL so I guess if they do not go to a double daily flight then TK or QR might be tempted.

Anything from MME would be brilliant but I do not hold out much hope.

[VentureGo]

NCL

To add to tigertanakas comments:
NCL to Stavanger & Bergen from Norwegian or other LCC (Braathens had a daily 737 service to Oslo,Stavanger & Bergen inmid 2000s before SAS takeover, so a low cost operation would surely bring in volume. Wilderoe exiting SVG end of this month. Maybe Airport would want to attract Full service operator to maintain a equal split and better Airport margin on revenue.

Add Berlin & Milan (MXP)

Gatwick may work with connecting to Alliances as well as BA, but these tend to be fed into larger hubs: Star via Lufthansa/EW, Skyteam via AMS/CDG.
Low cost carriers could feed into all airlines if agreements are successful. Gatwick Airport are also launching a connecting agreement which compensates for missed connections, but does not arrange through ticketing/baggage.

David Laws (Newcastle Airport CEO) recent article - Route plans about 4/5th through article:
Monday interview: David Laws, chief executive of Newcastle International Airport - Chronicle Live

Double Daily to Dubai and Leisure service to Las Vegas on his radar!

Quite a few people from our region also do Orlando either via Manchester with Virgin or via LHR (VS,BA/US Airlines) May be theres an opportunity for another service to Orlando from NCL as well as TOM (TOM and TCX used to compete/serve Orlando at least twice a week not so long ago)

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

The MAN-JFK/EWR market is one which has seen substantial growth ex MAN in 2015. The figures (per Scotty Dog of SSC) are as follows:

JFK: an increase of 119,033.

-2014, 112,996 were carried on the route.
-2015, 232,029 were carried on the route.

EWR: a decrease of 2,878

-2014, 114,317 were carried on the route.
-2015, 111,439 were carried on the route.


I think I am right in saying that United are the only operators of the EWR route for both 2014 and 15. I am not entirely sure who the new entrants to the JFK route were, but it may have been DL and TCX.

In broad terms, the route has shown the ability to prosper and grow rapidly. The issue as has been alluded to are the flight times which are all bunched in the morning. I doubt BA will use their own metal to serve this but I would not put it beyond AA to introduce an evening departure (although I assume all flights are morning departure/arrivals for good reason).

[AvGeek1]

Are there any other routes that you think Iberia/Iberia Express could operate from Madrid?

Also are there any routes that Vueling are still to add from their Barcelona hub? Any big markets that they are missing?

[davidjohnson6]

Dobbo - if a flight leaves Manchester about 10 am local time, it arrives in New York around 1 pm local time, leaving plenty of opportunity for passengers going elsewhere in North America to catch onward connecting flights.

Change that 10 am departure from Manchester to a 7 pm departure, allow for a couple of hours for immigration and changing plane and the number of onward connecting short-haul flights leaving New York around 11 pm is pretty small. Spending a night at JFK is not a particularly popular option amongst those who are time-poor, cash-rich and travelling business class - i.e. the most profitable customers.

London can manage an evening departure to New York because the number of people travelling just between these two cities is so large. Manchester doesn't have this luxury.

Now factor in that an aircraft leaving Manchester around 7 pm probably has to arrive in Manchester about 5 pm to have a decent chance of offloading passengers, clean the aircraft, load catering, new passengers, luggage, and allow a margin for small delays. That means the aircraft has to have left New York about 6 am local time. Domestic flights within the USA would have to arrive in New York about 4 am to give a fair chance of making the connection - i.e. really not popular with most connecting passengers, never mind any night noise rules the airport might have to obey.

Barring any special holiday events, flights from Manchester to New York run on a commercial basis pretty much have to leave no later than UK lunchtime to be commercially viable.

[Dobbo_Dobbo]

Thanks David - understood. There must be suitable window for a later departure/arrival time. I admit I have not given it too much thought. But something timed around a 5-7pm departure from MAN Id have thought would be popular.

Do we know anything about VS/DL plans for MAN? I know the BS to ATL route has been doing well, as has DL to JFK. VS are often mooted (as in this thread) as possible operators of a SFO and/or LAX route. I don't know what presence DL has at these locations but it would likely be relevant to any decision.

[davidjohnson6]

Dobbo - the only flights I can see leaving Europe around 6 pm to go to NYC are on aircraft operated by a European airline departing from one of their very large hubs with all the benefits of feeder traffic. Thus Air France form Paris, KLM from Amsterdam, Scandinavian from Copenhagen, Swiss from Zurich, etc...
The only proper exceptions to this rule in all of Europe seems to be at London which has the advantage of linking the commercial capitals of North America and Europe with all the senior management of major global corporations travelling back and forth willing to pay big bucks for a flight ticket. London has almost 30 flights per day to NYC - yes almost 10 times as many as Manchester

If British Airways were to base several or more long-haul aircraft in Manchester *and* re-open a hub at MAN, an early evening flight to NY might be feasible. Until then, daily 6 pm flights from Manchester to the USA would certainly be popular with Mancunians but terrible on profitability and are thus looking really quite unlikely to happen.

[Mickey Kaye]

EMA - AMS

KLM the operator

[MANFOD]

MAN-NEW YORK TIMINGS.

But something timed around a 5-7pm departure from MAN Id have thought would be popular.

As DJ6 points out, this would not really work for pax connecting on in the US.
However, given the increase in capacity to New York and that flights appear to be well used, it would be interesting to know how much of the traffic is purely O&D, (or is p2p the correct term?).

For transfer pax going on to say the west coast, the 3 hour time difference does provide some help. Nevertheless, I would suggest the latest timing to connect to say SFO would be a 13.30 departure from MAN arriving New York about 16.15. Both United and American have flights to SFO from EWR/JFK at 18.30 for dates I checked in June, arriving 22.10. Later flights at around 20.30 arrive after midnight so hardly ideal.

Looking at summer schedules, it appears Delta's JFK flight from MAN is now later at 12.45 with a 15.25 arrival, so there is some spread of options from 09.25 UA and 10.15 AA.

[AvGeek1]

I was thinking about the possibility of Ryanair opening a CWL base, and they could maybe operate these routes;

Cardiff-London (Stansted)
Cardiff-Amsterdam
Cardiff-Dublin
Cardiff-Alicante
Cardiff-Edinburgh
Cardiff-Malaga

Thoughts on these routes? Any other routes that could be realistically operated from CWL?

[wallp]

Originally Posted by AvGeek1

What an excellent list wallp! I definately agree that there should be more Italian routes from Luton. Also that easyJet should provide some more sensible times on the Luton-Prague route in competition with Wizz.

Also Gatwick could have many more long-haul destinations than it currently has and I think more US routes like Miami could definately be on the cards!

The Wizz timings to PRG are appalling. Am not entirely sure who they're aimed at which is why I think EZY or even Wizz could do well offering daytime departure/return on what is a popular route. Am amazed no one has seen the potential of the route.

I've been wondering also about some other destinations

Luton - Kraków (easyJet or Ryanair)
Luton - Dubrovnik (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Seville (easyJet)
Luton to Verona (easyJet)
Luton to Antwerp (VLM)
Luton to Brussels (VLM)
Luton to Tirana (Wizz)

[All names taken]

Can anyone explain to me the difference between Route Speculation (the title of this thread) and Wild Fantasy Lists (not the title of this thread)?

I don't think we're far off someone suggesting Cardiff to China because there are a lot of Chinese chippies in the area and therefore any airline would make a 'killing'. Or perhaps a Newcastle to Mexico City route because someone was talking to some Mexicans in a nightclub and they were complaining about hard it was to get to Newcastle.

Perhaps as a rule of thumb, before posting these fantasy lists, posters might ask themselves: would they launch such a route using their own money, (as opposed to expecting someone else to do it with their money) would they expect a profit from doing so and more importantly how would they expect to make a profit?

[SWBKCB]

Blimey, wish I'd read this before I gave all that money to those Spanish speaking blokes down the Bigg Market.

They reckoned we'd make a killing on Newcastle to Mexico with a couple of 767's and we'd get a good deal for cash....

[AvGeek1]

Originally Posted by All names taken

Can anyone explain to me the difference between Route Speculation (the title of this thread) and Wild Fantasy Lists (not the title of this thread)?

I don't think we're far off someone suggesting Cardiff to China because there are a lot of Chinese chippies in the area and therefore any airline would make a 'killing'. Or perhaps a Newcastle to Mexico City route because someone was talking to some Mexicans in a nightclub and they were complaining about hard it was to get to Newcastle.

Perhaps as a rule of thumb, before posting these fantasy lists, posters might ask themselves: would they launch such a route using their own money, (as opposed to expecting someone else to do it with their money) would they expect a profit from doing so and more importantly how would they expect to make a profit?

As the leader of this thread, I always say in my posts can anyone think of any routes that would be realistic and successful, but some people do go off on a tangent. I can't really do anything about people's imaginations going wild I'm afraid, just do what I do and ignore their posts!