BRISTOL - 4

[bristolflyer]

DoorsToAutomatic, I can't see them extending the runway. There is no business case for it. BRS have been incredibly successful in building a comprehensive lo-cost network. That is the business model and it works. Realistically how many long haul destinations could be served from BRS? New York was tried and failed. Potentially it could be served again now the economy is on the up, but apart from that Dubai, with Emirates, is the only other destination that springs to mind. Apart from those two there would be Orlando, Mexico and Goa as package destinations. The airport also believed that the next generation of aircraft 787/A350 could use the airport without restriction. The interesting question is where do they go after 10mppa as MV points out? The site is one the smallest of any UK airport and they are doing a good job maximising the space, but once the current development is completed there is nowhere else for them to go. A small second terminal could be built on the GA site opposite, but it wouldn't add much.

[Doors to Automatic]

Thanks for the heads up Merchant - I would think that a 389m extension would allow all the ops described above on aircraft like the 787 - the destinations listed by bristolflyer would surely make it worthwhile?

I seem to remember that the former EWR service was weight limited as 6500ft is tight for transatlantic ops even on a 757.

I would have thought that given the rich catchment and economic upswing the following are possible:

Scheduled
EWR, DXB, IST (unrestricted) and possibly a secong DXB or DOH/AUH

Charter/Seasonal
MCO, GOA, BGI, LAS, YYZ

[MerchantVenturer]

The BRS master plan is still the one published in 2006 in response to the then Labour government's earlier white paper. Many things were not anticipated in the master plan (and in fairness could not reasonably be expected to have been), not least the dreadful recession that visited the world in the next few years.

To that extent then the master plan cannot be relied on completely as a guide to what might now transpire, although the period 2016-2030 was only ever set out in outline form.

The 'forecast' for the period up to 2015 has turned out to be somewhat optimistic with, for example, a projected 8.1 mppa at the end of this year (around 6.6/6.7 mppa will probably be the actual total). BRS is not alone in this: neighbouring airports at CWL and EXT suggested over 4 mppa and 1.5/2 mppa respectively for 2015 in their master plan projections which were prepared at approximately the same time as BRS's.

As bristolflyer mentions, the airport put its hopes in the new generation of aircraft such as the B 787 and the A 350 as a means of overcoming some of the limitations of its runway. Whether that will turn out to be justified remains to be seen. After withdrawing the B 767 on the summer routes to Sanford and Cancun two years ago there was disappointment that TUI did not operate the B 787 on transatlantic charters, especially as MD Chris Browne said publicly in 2010 that BRS would be amongst the first UK airports to operate the Dreamliner. Whether this is a commercial or operational decision is not known.

In its master plan the airport said that passenger forecasts (then) showed there was limited demand for long haul scheduled routes and the airport identified four: New York (then being operated - to EWR), Washington, Dubai and another US destination that it suggested might be Atlanta. However, it did see further demand for long haul charter services.

Apart from the size of its site, BRS long-haul scheduled potential does suffer from its proximity to LHR which is the default choice for many local business people, and with electrification of Brunels' main line plus a spur into LHR access will be easier from the Bristol area in the forseeable future. One of the reasons cited by Continental for its axing its BRS-EWR flight was the poor take-up in business-first. Overall passenger numbers met and exceeded the airline's publicly stated target in the beginning, although the recession undoubtedly took its toll later on.

I wasn't aware of Continental's B 757-200 being weight-restricted by passenger numbers at BRS. It began as a 172-seat aircraft and later increased to 175 seats. BRS sees very little cargo to/from anywhere according to CAA stats.

[bristolflyer]

DTA, I agree with MV. I'm afraid charters to Vegas are pipe dreams. There have been occasional one off charters to BGI for cruises. I would love to see the return of a direct flight to NYC. I used the service on a number of occasions and it was fantastic to land at 8.30 and be home by 9.30, but sadly I don't see a return. Continental did not have access to LHR at the time it started flights from BRS, but it does now it has merged with United. The business model was sound in that they tried point to point to the UK regions thus taking traffic from LHR. BHX,MAN,BFS,EDI and EDI are still served. Bristol is just too close to LHR, especially if you live to the north of the city. You are right that there is an affluent catchment, it is that affluence that supports the extensive EZY network, but legacy carriers need repeat business traffic not rich tourists. As for DXB I believe a Gulf carrier would struggle to fill 250+ seats per day, let alone 500+ over two aircraft. There is a limited market for longhaul, but I can't see the cost/benefit to the airport in extending the runway to truly cater for it.

[globetrotter79]

First experience of dep lounge extension: to be honest a bit disappointing.

The main (first floor of terminal building) level seems smaller than anticipated and although they have fitted handy phone/tablet charging points in the seating area therein, even in a fairly quiet time of the day every single one of them was being used / so clearly they've totally underestimated demand for this facility.

Also, the much lauded new roof terrace remains closed...

Let's hope the much needed refurbishment/extension to departures security works out better!

[MerchantVenturer]

Eastern terminal extension - rooftop garden

In its press release of 2 July the airport said,

..............with a rooftop garden featuring quirky sculptures expected to prove popular. Along with a second executive lounge, this will open as part of phase two within a few weeks’ time.

'Within a few weeks' time' is a bit vague and no reason was given for the delay.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

There will never be a runway extension. I have that from the horses mouth. Which actually guffawed at the amount of money BHX has just completely blown on their extra Tarmac.

Successful airports spend wisely and runway length would be nothing but vanity.

WWW

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by Wee Weasley Welshman

There will never be a runway extension. I have that from the horses mouth. Which actually guffawed at the amount of money BHX has just completely blown on their extra Tarmac.

Successful airports spend wisely and runway length would be nothing but vanity.

WWW

I think you're probably right - BRS has an extremely successful business model offering a mix of leisure and business orientated services to Europe. Unlike at BHX, where there was already a basis of long haul operations (with Emirates, United, PIA, Turkmenistan plus charters) BRS has none. Even with that, it will take many years to recoup the investment in the runway extension there.

BRS is playing a very canny game businesswise at the moment - why try and be too clever?

[Alvechurch]

Yep, Bristol Airport is indeed playing a canny game and has done so for years.
So canny, that unlike BHX it manages to avoid paying Corporation Tax which of course is quite helpful.

[andrew1968]

Bristol Airport Stats

Bristol Airport publish June 2015 airport statistics

Another great set of results, CAA stats published but Bristol not included in the first release.

June 2015 Pax

Total..............................705,925.....UP 9.18%

June 2015 Movements

Total..............................6,875........UP 9.63%

YTD 2015 Pax

Total..............................3,091,050...UP 6.97%

YTD 2015 Movements

Total..............................32,197.......UP 6.89%

Bristol Airport Website Link

Facts & Figures | Bristol Airport Passenger Numbers | Bristol Airport

[heading 125]

Originally Posted by Alvechurch

Yep, Bristol Airport is indeed playing a canny game and has done so for years.
So canny, that unlike BHX it manages to avoid paying Corporation Tax which of course is quite helpful.

I am sure they pay corporation tax. They make a hugh amount of profit and are very successful. That would be an unfair advantage on neighbouring airports if they didn't and they would effectively be subsidised by the tax payer. So cannot see that happening as they don't like the thought that Cardiff airport is owned by the Welsh Assembly.

[MerchantVenturer]

I don't know the current corporation tax position re South West Airports Limited (SWAL), the holding company that owns Bristol Airport for its sole owner, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.

The Stop Bristol Airport Expansion group (SBAE) - they no longer seem to be active on the Internet having once had a significant website - publicised the fact that in 2007 SWAL had made a profit around £25 million but had paid no corporation tax because (according to SBAE) the profit had been written off to repay shareholder loans.

In 2007 SWAL's shareholders would have been Teachers and part of the Macquarie Group.

I have no reason to think that whatever they did was illegal, otherwise the taxation authorities would have been on to it; whether the practice has continued at SWAL since then I don't know.

[JaffaCake]

The only way BRS would build an extension to the runway would be if the major operator (i.e. easyJet) were to state that in order for it to expand further it needed a longer runway for destinations not currently served (such as SSH).

Given EZY seem to be making loadsadosh from the current network range, there would never be a sensible economic argument from either side, not now or the future, particularly as modern aircraft are ever-improving their power-to-weight potential.

[MerchantVenturer]

Wizz Air

Wizz Air to Launch 4 New Flights from Sofia in March 2016 - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency

Wizz to commence a 2 x weekly service to BRS (Mon and Fri) from Sofia from next March. It will be their second route from BRS after Katowice began in June this year.

This will be the first scheduled route from BRS to the Bulgarian capital although there have been weekly ski charter flights for many years.

[speedbird_481_papa]

Hi merchant I trust you are well? I have said all along that Wizz will just test the water with the Katowice route and will expand very quickly if that route was to prove sucessful, which it has done.

Right from the 1st flight they have been running about 95% loads. I can see wizz becoming almost as big here in BRS as they are currently at Luton.

Apparently Sofia is the first of about 6 routes still to be announced from BRS and they want to compete directly with the routes currently served by Ryanair and others not currently served from BRS

[MerchantVenturer]

Wizz Air

Fine thank you, speedbird, and you I hope.

Ryanair currently flies to Warsaw Modlin, Poznan, Wroclaw, Rzeszow, Gdansk, Budapest and Kaunas in the old 'Eastern Bloc' (Modlin and Budapest at 3 x weekly, the remainder 2 x weekly).

You will know better than me , I'm sure, that all the Ryanair BRS 'Eastern Bloc' routes enjoy monthly load factors in excess of 90%, often in the high 90s%, at least in the summer. Winter can be slightly less and not all the routes operate then.

But then so did Katowice and Bratislava but Ryanair axed these, presumably because the yield was not to their liking.

The only other former Eastern Bloc routes from BRS are easyJet's Krakow, Prague (both mainly 4 x weekly) and Berlin Schoenhof (mainly 6 x weekly).

I really wonder whether any of the above routes would stand competition. I'd like to see Wizz tackle some routes not currently flown. It would be a shame to have two airlines competing on a route that satisfied neither with the result that both pulled out.

Looking at the Wizz bases Riga stands out in terms of evidence of a market. Ryanair used to operate it with summer monthly load factors over 90% but pulled out in early 2012. Wizz took on Katowice after Ryanair decided it was not for them (and quickly added a third weekly rotation) so maybe Wizz would look at Riga.

Capital cities not served from BRS but sites of Wizz bases are Belgrade and Bucharest. If Sofia shows promise with bookings perhaps we might see one or both of these.

I suspect the airport would be pleased to have some more non-based aircraft operating in to spread the load. There can be nearly 30 departures before 0800 in summer.

[MerchantVenturer]

Wizz Air

A poster on another forum who is well informed on BRS matters is saying the announcement of another Wizz route from the airport is imminent.

[MerchantVenturer]

Wizz Air

Further to my previous post, the Wizz Air booking engine is now showing Bristol-Kosice (Slovakia) 2 x weekly (Tues and Sat) from October.

Ryanair's Bratislava route generated high load factors but seemingly not the required yield and was axed, although Kosice is in the east of the country.

[Seljuk22]

Kosice twice weekly from 10th October
https://wizzair.com/en-GB/about_us/news/wizzen340

[Bristol_Traveller]

Everyone stand by to deal with lots of very bemused visitors arriving at BRS and trying to work out how to get to Weston-super-Mare.

Dismaland

I wonder how many people will try and use the 121 bus?