NATO vs Russia
What are the odds against chinese troops appearing in Crimea or captured territories, or even Belarus? The chinese bailed out NK in the 50s - would they bail out russia now? what would Ukraine and the West / NATO do if that came about?
Vanishingly small, I do not think there is that much love between the two nations such that one would fight and die for the other. They are no longer kindred in terms of political system and as far as I know, there is no treaty obligation. Moreover, if the situation were that bad, it would be reinforcing failure at the end of a very long logistic and communication chain. In fact, a weakened Russia would be to China’s advantage so it would have to be a hell of a good offer by Russia.
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Perhaps Putin has had to promise Xi that this time he will personally force through the pipeline from Lake Baikal to China.
The Chinese have a long memory. They remember the humiliation by the imperial powers in the 19th century. It's in their interest to keep the US and the West in a constant state of war. China will use everything at its disposal to wear the free world down. I reckon, communist Chinas longterm goal will be to walk into Taiwan before its 100's anniversary in 2049.
It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?
The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.
It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?
The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.
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The Chinese have a long memory. They remember the humiliation by the imperial powers in the 19th century. It's in their interest to keep the US and the West in a constant state of war. China will use everything at its disposal to wear the free world down. I reckon, communist Chinas longterm goal will be to walk into Taiwan before its 100's anniversary in 2049.
It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?
The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.
It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?
The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.
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The Chinese have a long memory. They remember the humiliation by the imperial powers in the 19th century. It's in their interest to keep the US and the West in a constant state of war. China will use everything at its disposal to wear the free world down. I reckon, communist Chinas longterm goal will be to walk into Taiwan before its 100's anniversary in 2049.
It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?
The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.
It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?
The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.
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The Chinese have three military bases world-wide. This is the same as those superpowers Netherlands & Saudi Arabia. They don't want (or need) to get into other folks fights. They certainly don't see themselves as any sort of "policeman". And even in Mao's day relationships between China & USSR were pretty fraught. China will involve itself in adjacent areas - NK, Vietnam, S China Sea, Himalaya's, Burma but will not interfere directly further away - at least not in our lifetimes.
People talk of `Nato expansion` as a threat, in the same tone as they would talk of Hitlers intentions towards Europe.
Nato is a response to a threat, lets not forget that. A threat from Russia after the end of WW2 when Russia started to divide up Europe starting with Germany.
Since WW2 Nato has not threatened another country. Non Nato countries have threatened Nato countries.
The biggest expansion will be in response to Russias aggression.
Nato is a response to a threat, lets not forget that. A threat from Russia after the end of WW2 when Russia started to divide up Europe starting with Germany.
Since WW2 Nato has not threatened another country. Non Nato countries have threatened Nato countries.
The biggest expansion will be in response to Russias aggression.
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Of course, we won't see Chinese soldier fighting in Ukraine. China has border disputes with basically all its neighbors. They have enough on their hands to deal with. Let proxy Russia and others fight for its overseas interests. Weakening the West.
Plus the large area of what was northern Manchuria, including Russia's important Pacific naval port of Vladivostok has only been in Russian hands for less than 150 years, and many in China would like to see it back to being part of China.
Pootin and his cronies heading to China last week with a large tub of Vaseline in hand for the shafting they are going to get as part of any deal with China likely shows how desperate they are getting, and China will be happy to accommodate for what it get out if it. With western sanctions, Russia has already turned to China for new cars/trucks etc and they'll see supplying Russian with fake' luxury goods plus all the cheap tat that might no longer head to the west.
Who would that be? Certainly not me.
OK, there's your strawman, now go and set it on fire.
And in the future, try not to tell Granny how to suck eggs.
My general reservations about NATO enlargement had to do with working inside of NATO, and seeing what a nightmare it was to get anything done with 16 nations.
Still, a few things got done here and there.
As you grow that club, and the "all or nothing" model continues, it becomes more unwieldy as each new member joins the club.
It's getting to be like the UN, bloated and top heavy. (The recent addition of Finland and Sweden was an unexpected boon).
The 16 nations, collectively, chose (explicitly at Madrid, 1997) to grow rather than fold the circus tent now that the circus (the Cold War) was over.
That they made that decision collectively is significant.
Like I said, not everyone was for NATO enlargement, but it eventually happened.
in the same tone as they would talk of Hitlers intentions towards Europe.
And in the future, try not to tell Granny how to suck eggs.
My general reservations about NATO enlargement had to do with working inside of NATO, and seeing what a nightmare it was to get anything done with 16 nations.
Still, a few things got done here and there.
As you grow that club, and the "all or nothing" model continues, it becomes more unwieldy as each new member joins the club.
It's getting to be like the UN, bloated and top heavy. (The recent addition of Finland and Sweden was an unexpected boon).
The 16 nations, collectively, chose (explicitly at Madrid, 1997) to grow rather than fold the circus tent now that the circus (the Cold War) was over.
That they made that decision collectively is significant.
Originally Posted by some stuff that arose in Madrid
The result of the summit was that Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic were invited to join NATO. Fellow Visegrád Group member Slovakia was excluded from this invitation. Slovakia had held a referendum on NATO membership in May 1997, but turnout in the referendum failed to achieve the required 50% of eligible voters and government sabotage was blamed, which in turn was viewed as one of a string of undemocratic measures taken by Prime Minister Vladimír Mečiar.[size=675px] [/size]A majority of NATO members reportedly supported France's proposal to also immediately invite Romania and Slovenia as members, but this was strongly opposed by U.S. President Bill Clinton, and even an "iron-clad guarantee" that they could be invited in two years time was watered-down in favor of an "open door" policy for new potential members.[size=675px] [/size]A main concern for the United States was the cost of potentially raising the military standards of the new Eastern European members. Estimates put this cost at as much as US$10 billion, which participants worried could lead to the treaty recognizing the new members being rejected by the Republican-held U.S. Senate.
Many, many years ago I had a chat with an intelligence officer at an RAF Base. He suggested that, t understand the Russians you had to look at the world from their point of view.
To the West, NATO. To the South, China. To the North, over the Pole the USA. In their eyes they are surrounded by enemies of the Communist system. Treaties mean little to them: think about the Germaon-Soviet non-aggression pact of 1939, then what happened a few years later.
I don't say I agree with their viewpoint, although, sometimes it does help to see the world from the other guy's point of view.
How will this tragic war end? At some point there must be negotiation, and some form of reparations made. Any treaty must be credible, and the signatories trustworthy. Would you trust Mr Putin?
To the West, NATO. To the South, China. To the North, over the Pole the USA. In their eyes they are surrounded by enemies of the Communist system. Treaties mean little to them: think about the Germaon-Soviet non-aggression pact of 1939, then what happened a few years later.
I don't say I agree with their viewpoint, although, sometimes it does help to see the world from the other guy's point of view.
How will this tragic war end? At some point there must be negotiation, and some form of reparations made. Any treaty must be credible, and the signatories trustworthy. Would you trust Mr Putin?
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The Russians are paranoid, have always been paranoid and will be paranoid into the future. You only have to look at their rhetoric about the War in Ukraine to understand that. Their stance on NATO reflects this and no amount of Kremlin propaganda changes the fact that NATO was never, has never been and will not into the future be interested in invading Russia.
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The whole argument about feeling threatened is moot with nuclear weapons. Who in his right mind would attack a country which is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons? Russia would not hesitate to use them if its statehood would be on the table. The same can not be said for our Eastern European partners. E.g. there is no way the Baltic countries could defeat a Russian onslaught on their own.
Russia is still mourning the loss of its empire. It's super power status. The war against Ukraine is all about restoring its former standing. If Russia is successful other countries will be absorbed in due course.
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"China has border disputes with basically all its neighbors."
I'm not sure that is true. They currently have no beef with N Korea, Russia, Mongolia, the 3 Stan's, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Burma, Thailand & Vietnam on land.
They have a land disputes with India & Bhutan and the offshore islands with Japan and with everyone in the S China Sea (including Vietnam).
from WIKI
" Many of these territorial disputes are almost identical to those that the Republic of China (ROC), also known as Taiwan, has with other countries. Therefore, many of the subsequent resolved disputes made by the PRC after 1949 with other governments may not be recognized by the ROC.[size=8333px] [/size]
According to academic Swaran Singh, China's generosity was likely motivated by the security concern of reducing foreign support for disgruntled groups within China's southwest border.]In Central Asia, the newly-independent following the dissolution of the Soviet Union inherited the border disagreements with China, which had themselves been inherited from Tsarist Russia and the Qing dynasty. China negotiated bilaterally to resolve its borders with these conflicts.[35] Ultimately, China obtained Central Asian territory significantly less than what it had originally claimed. Resolution of these disputes on territorial terms generally favorable to the Central Asian countries created goodwill for China, avoided conflict, and also resulted in recognition that the czarist era borders were imposed unjustly on China.[size=8333px]"[/size]
I'm not sure that is true. They currently have no beef with N Korea, Russia, Mongolia, the 3 Stan's, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Burma, Thailand & Vietnam on land.
They have a land disputes with India & Bhutan and the offshore islands with Japan and with everyone in the S China Sea (including Vietnam).
from WIKI
" Many of these territorial disputes are almost identical to those that the Republic of China (ROC), also known as Taiwan, has with other countries. Therefore, many of the subsequent resolved disputes made by the PRC after 1949 with other governments may not be recognized by the ROC.[size=8333px] [/size]
According to academic Swaran Singh, China's generosity was likely motivated by the security concern of reducing foreign support for disgruntled groups within China's southwest border.]In Central Asia, the newly-independent following the dissolution of the Soviet Union inherited the border disagreements with China, which had themselves been inherited from Tsarist Russia and the Qing dynasty. China negotiated bilaterally to resolve its borders with these conflicts.[35] Ultimately, China obtained Central Asian territory significantly less than what it had originally claimed. Resolution of these disputes on territorial terms generally favorable to the Central Asian countries created goodwill for China, avoided conflict, and also resulted in recognition that the czarist era borders were imposed unjustly on China.[size=8333px]"[/size]
NATO is getting closer (which is not least a result of their past and current own behaviour but it is a fact) passively aggressively from their POV. By indirectly encouraging people in Countries to join 'the West' (not so much by sending their democratic vales but more by seeing the wealthy Western Countries and looking at one's own misery). And Russia is struggling to find a way to prevent this. Economically they can't. They gave up on this long ago. Ukraine was a different attempt which went t*ts up for the most part but I guess they still try to make an example for other Countries in their sphere. They see their empire futher eroding and haven't found a way to stop this or turn it around.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Polish “East Shield”.
https://archive.ph/2024.05.20-020954...ssia-3vqb2sgwm
Poland announces £2bn border defence project ‘to keep out Russia’
The East Shield scheme will make the Polish border ‘impenetrable’ to potential enemies, according to Donald Tusk
https://archive.ph/2024.05.20-020954...ssia-3vqb2sgwm
Poland announces £2bn border defence project ‘to keep out Russia’
The East Shield scheme will make the Polish border ‘impenetrable’ to potential enemies, according to Donald Tusk
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Report in Norwegian but with English subtitles. Interview on @NRKno about the maritime sea cable that was cut on 9th May right ourside Vesterålen.
The cable is a sensor that can also detect submarines, which could give Russia a potential advantage by increasing the uncertainty about the location of these submarines.
Geir Pedersen from Havforskningen and Tom Roseth - associate professor in Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Defence University College give comments.
The cable is a sensor that can also detect submarines, which could give Russia a potential advantage by increasing the uncertainty about the location of these submarines.
Geir Pedersen from Havforskningen and Tom Roseth - associate professor in Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Defence University College give comments.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Nine people arrested in Poland over alleged Russian sabotage plot.
The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.
https://kyivindependent.com/nine-peo...sabotage-plot/
The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.
"We currently have nine suspects detained and indicted, who have been directly implicated in the name of Russian (intelligence) services in acts of sabotage in Poland," Tusk said.
The individuals were Polish, Ukrainian, and Belarusian citizens. Tusk also suggested they may have been recruited from criminal circles.
Acts of alleged sabotage include "beatings, arson, and attempted arson," not just in Poland but also in Latvia, Lithuania, and possibly even Sweden.
Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania….
The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.
https://kyivindependent.com/nine-peo...sabotage-plot/
The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.
"We currently have nine suspects detained and indicted, who have been directly implicated in the name of Russian (intelligence) services in acts of sabotage in Poland," Tusk said.
The individuals were Polish, Ukrainian, and Belarusian citizens. Tusk also suggested they may have been recruited from criminal circles.
Acts of alleged sabotage include "beatings, arson, and attempted arson," not just in Poland but also in Latvia, Lithuania, and possibly even Sweden.
Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania….
"Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania…."
Jeeez how will Europe cope against such outrages?
Jeeez how will Europe cope against such outrages?
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