Might be some info here too. See "The military paths":

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/c...ml#post2733299

They do, except that in spite of the shortage, the antiquated promotion system forces them to either kick out pilots or offer early separation if any particular year group exceeds a target size.

Part of the solution is to completely throw out the entire concept of promotion "zones", and also quit pre-selecting O-5s and O-6s 10+ years prior based on DP to O-4 and/or in-residence school slots. The air university and AFPC promotion boards already got busted (finally!) for pre-selecting O-5s with the SOS DG designation, but they merely tweaked a few things instead of eliminating the inherent problem in the system that discards 80% of the officers in their first 7-10 years of service as being forever B-team. As if those officers can't possibly offer anything beyond 14 years of service and will never learn anything about leadership after their SOS instructor or third-ever commander decides that they shouldn't do ACSC in residence.

Offer a realistic career growth path for all officers instead of one-shot in the zone make or break points, and I think many more officers would choose to remain in. The reserves will happily promote a qualified 20-year O-4 to fill an open O-5 billet in a flying squadron, so why is the active force so stuck on stupid that they can't do the same thing?

In the same 3 year stretch at Sheppard AFB, I saw retired O-5s get returned to active duty, O-4s get RIFd, and a reserve squadron put 7 23-year O-4s into leadership positions in order to get them promoted to O-5 before they got kicked out at 24 years. There is something very badly wrong/stupid at AFPC when that kind of stupidity not only happened, but is STILL happening while they whine about "shortages". Eliminate the promotion zone and chuck out the year-group waterfall charts that forces RIFs when there are shortages in other year groups, and half the problem goes away without a single dime spent on ineffective bonuses.

USAF Academy. Hands down the highest percentage chance of getting to pilot training after graduation. Nothing else comes even remotely close, running the numbers.

One thing people don't realize is that you can keep applying to the Academies until age 22 or 23, and multiple applications while succeeding in ANY college program shows that you really want to attend AND graduate, which can make the difference between acceptance and rejection. If you want to go to a service academy, tell your nomination source (House representative usually) that you intend to apply every year until you're too old, and then you plan on applying for both admission and the required age waiver. Then every year while you're applying, work to pad your application with activities. Anything with a leadership role. Sports. Aviation clubs. Volunteer activites. ANYTHING that shows dedication to a military service career. I think you can even already have a college degree and still go, although I'm not 100% certain about that. I do know that you can get accepted to the academies even if you have a few years of college completed already, since it improves the chances that you'll actually complete the program and graduate.

Of course, you need to consider the 30%-ish washout/dropout rate at the Academy prior to graduation, and the 50%-85% UPT selection rate for graduates depending on whim of the AF. But it's STILL the best odds of getting a pilot slot, even when UPT numbers are cut back. In 1993/1994, 225 USAF academy grads out of approx 800 medically qualified new 2Lts went to UPT. In those years for ROTC - 50 graduates from the entire nation got UPT slots and I don't know if there were any OCS grads accepted to UPT for those years. I was one of those 225, damn glad I went to USAFA instead of ROTC because there's no way in hell I would have been competitive for one of those 50 nationwide UPT slots.

No question, USAFA is the best odds of getting a pilot slot, and you can keep applying until you hit the age limit and each time you apply you'll just look better and better to the admissions board. And don't forget to butter up the nomination source. There is usually a staffer in charge of managing the academy nominations, and you need to get well acquainted with that person so you can impress on them your unwavering intent to keep applying every single year until they say you can't even apply anymore, because that's how much you want to be a USAF officer.

Another tip - Get good enough at an NCAA sport that an Academy coach will blue chip you. Live on the west coast? Do some swimming or learn water polo, play on a community college team. That can help in a BIG way and some teams are chronically short so they'll blue chip almost anyone who has a legit claim at varsity skills or previous collegiate sports experience. All it takes is one phone call to the coach's office to see if they need you or not, and you don't have to limit yourself to one sport either. You never know what might make the difference and making the effort to check can pay off huge.

Yea, and they're smart enough to keep buying the best front-line equipment too :) Super Hornets, C-17s, etc etc. They have newer stuff than the USAF and USN does and while like everyone else they're gonna eventually get the F-35, they didn't buy into the "stealth or nothing" hype so they've got new aircraft on the ramp while US fighters literally fall apart inflight.

Well, I guess it's at least something:

Last May, the service announced a major expansion of the VRRAD program, and said as many as 1,000 recently retired officers could return.

But far fewer retirees have applied, according to statistics provided by the Air Force. Of the 125 total applicants, 50 are pilots.

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/y...o-lend-a-hand/

Get 'em while they're young:

"the program is 'an inclusive' "

"increased diversity"

"in a holistic manner (i.e., beyond aviation knowledge)"


"character development"


Pipistrel Alpha To Play Key Role In USAF Training Program | Aero-News Network

"Australia has an Airforce?"

Its New Zealand that you are thinking of with that comment.

ethicalconundrum, the USAF doesn't have any WOs - the last one retired back sometime in the early 80s while I was still on active duty.

WOs are a good idea though, I think, which probably ensures that they will never return . . .

It would actually make sense to not require a degree.

First, if a pilot has a degree, then they're going to have more employment opportunities than someone who doesn't, and they'll be less likely to remain in the military.

Second, if you grab a kid fresh out of high school, he (or she) is much less likely to have a family than someone four years older. If they don't have a spouse and kids to drag around the world/be away from for extended periods, then they're more likely to stay in.

Problem solved:

Air Force Believes It Has Pilot Shortage Under Control | Aero-News Network

I was just being a wise guy. :)

Is that allowed here?

Interesting DoD report on pilot supply across services. Twenty seven pages might be more than you'd care to read but the Executive Summary will give you the gist which has been touched on in previous reports:

From the Executive Summary:

"The Department of Defense (DoD)now faces a pilot shortfall in excess of 3,000 pilots, which has been several years in the making. While the severity and dynamic of the shortfall varies among the Military Services, all Services are experiencing pilot shortfalls due to several years of underproduction in pilot training and reduced aircraft readiness. These shortfalls have been exacerbated by higher than average attrition among experienced aviators."

From the Conclusion:

"While the Military Services continue to mitigate current shortfalls, the Department simply cannot afford to continue losing experienced pilots at the current rate."

https://prhome.defense.gov/Portals/5...%20release.pdf

An update on military pilot supply. Looks like they've still got their work cut out for them.

Navy

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/navy/...llenge-begins/


Air Force

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-p...ilot-shortage/

Not making all that much headway apparently:

"Top Air Force leaders have said since at least 2017 that they were facing a roughly 2,000-pilot shortfall, indicating the situation has not improved — and in fact, may have gotten a little worse."

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/y...lot-shortfall/

iirc there is no such thing. You must not be 27 by the 1st of July the year you graduate. No waivers as it is in the Constitution.

The problem is not that there aren't enough candidates for UPT. The problem is that the Air Force is bleeding trained pilots who go on to make way more money flying for the airlines. WOs or enlisted pilots who will earn even less are even more likely to run away after getting some flight time.

None of the US military Academies are even mentioned in the Constitution, let alone specifying age limits.

Wait ... back in August, they said they had it under control ... now they don't? I'm so confused.

Might've got my sources wrong.

Anyway, I know that the age-restriction is pretty much unwaiverable except for some extremely rare prior-enlisted cases.

Maybe the USAF needs a pilot officer program. Recruit 18 year olds out of high school. (I believe the Israelis start flight school at 18.) You can have a year of higher level math and science training, 40 hours of flight school, etc. over a 12-month period. Successful candidates go to flight school as Pilot Officers and get commissioned upon graduation/wings. Then, after several years of flying they can be offered a chance to complete a degree. Without a degree they are not desirable for the airlines. Generally only about half a degree is required for a commission.

The Navy Reserve does a very good job of integrating Reservists into active duty squadrons - so I've been told, no first-hand knowledge. The USAF's reserve component flies almost all the tanker missions. Perhaps a longer reserve commitment would keep people around. They can fly a few days a month. The Air National Guard once had an advertisement with the claim they flew 40% as much as the USAF at 10% of the cost. That's only because the AF provides the schools, the airplanes, and the broader infrastructure, but there's merit.

I disagree with the "up or out" policy we have w/in DoD. Some Army Captains are great company commanders, but no cut out to be the Ops Officer for a battalion. Let someone do a career as a captain. Change the retirement system. Sometimes you need crazy ideas if you want radical changes.

Not having a degree isn't much of an impediment for an airline job these days.

AxA,

And one might even postulate that it's an advantage at some levels. There are a couple of pretty good LCCs here that are allegedly very touchy about being used as a steppingstone to the legacies. If the legacies continue to be unwilling to forego the degree requirement, a person without one might look like more of a long term prospect as an employee at a LCC.

Just a theory...

Yeah, probably some truth to that.

Well, it appears the military pilot deficit has been solved...probably for several years. I suspect people are trying to get back in.

Yeah, was just following a conversation on this elsewhere. You know that somewhere, someone is going to be saying *look, the stuff we did to improve retention is working !!!! "

AxA,

Yep. Chairman Barack's Myrmidon-in-Chief, Rahm Emmanuel, famously said:

“President Obama’s chief of staff Rahm Emanuel famously said in 2008, ‘You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. I mean, it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.’”

The application of this principle is utilitarian and universal. Sometimes we get to laugh but mostly we don't.

https://www.lexingtonchronicle.com/b...risis-go-waste

Looks like the USAF has come up with a new idea:

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-w...138945.article

Air Force needs some more ideas:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/y...tors-gao-says/

I suppose everyone is having to guess these days :

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/...o-keep-pilots/

Seems nothing has changed:

https://ibb.co/xX7QV8k

The USAF has a new program to streamline the route to a pilot position:

https://www.jsfirm.com/job/Pilot-Fix...s/jobID_901669


https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Disp...makes-history/

Not much has changed apparently:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/y...ious-position/