The Aussies are coming
 

Greetings my US friends

Just wondering if any of you had seen this discussion ongoing in the Australian forum and what are your thoughts on it

http://www.pprune.org/australia-new-...regionals.html

Looks like Jarryd Hayne is just the tip of the iceberg :E

I'm also curious about the reaction of American pilots.

To my knowledge, this would be somewhat of a new wrinkle for US airlines. I think Aussies would fit in quite nicely were they to come up here.

And, who is Jarryd Hayne ?

IIUC, here are the visa details:

http://www.uscis.gov/working-united-...nals-australia

I don't see a problem here, the numbers will likely be too negligible to have any real effect on overall "state of the industry", and if an Aussie is that anxious to come over here to sleep in crewrooms, more power to him.

One possible hiccup I see with a union carrier (which Skywest is not) is what seniority status issues might arise with pilots who are only employable "temporarily".

ike,

I'd guess you're right about the small(ish) number of Aussie applicants but what makes this story unusual, if accurate, is that any US airline actively sought expats. While I may have overlooked some event in history, I don't recall this happening before. Someone will no doubt correct my memory if needed.

The ad from the Skywest website seems to indicate a CPL is good enough to get the ball rolling if the applicant has the necessary flight time. Am I reading that right ? :

Pilot » SkyWest Airlines

It's more likely that younger expat applicants might have an FAA CPL than an ATP.

As for seniority, wouldn't the Aussies just drop off the list when their visas expired/weren't renewed ( to the pleasure of those junior to them) and go elsewhere ?

I guess this gets complicated.

The issue would be whether or not they would be full voting members while here. Would they be on the list at all? There would have to be a provision for such pilots, I would think.

This is a really bad idea. 3 reasons just of the top of my head.

1- the airline industry in the U.S. Is in the process of establishing equilibrium of supply and demand. The value of a Pilot is finally beginning to gain recognition. We don't need imported labor to continue the artificially low wages at the regionals.

2- these Aussies will ultimately gain residency/citizenship through longevity, marriage, etc. and will compete with American pilots for the coveted jobs. Who wants more competition for AA, UA, DL, UPS, FX....please raise your hands. I'm sure these folks have no interest in flying for regional making squat for the rest of their career.

3- When I lived and worked back home in the U.S., my perception of Aussies was, well, crocodile Dundee-ish laid back with a shrimp on the barbi style. Well, that can't be further from the truth. Ask anyone in EK or any other airline with a substantial number of them. Of course not all are the same and I've met some good guys but the overall majority are not easy in the cockpit.

Anyway, you RJ folk back home better get with your unions on this. Regionals need to start paying for its talent. Import labor will diminish this effort.

Oh my god, this statement cracked me up so much. :E

But anyhow, I don't think Aussies will stay in U.S permanently. I just don't see anyway of getting green card whilst being employed in US on E-3 via (visa of non-immigrant intent) unless they find some skinny American girls. Americans won't have any competition from Aussies when joining US majors. If I were to go there, I'd go to the states just to get free CRJ type rating and some hours and get outta there asap to work in Asia.

We do not even know 100% that Skywest actually has hired Australians. Does anybody actually have a confirmation?

This is another thing that shocked me when I gained some exposure. We Americans consider the Aussies, Brits, and canucks our brethren, friends and allies. The fact is they hate us just the same as the rest of the world does. The running joke around at my airline is......" whats the difference between an Aussie and an American?......The American know that we hate them....":} Unfortunately, that's just the way it is.....don't know why.

For the ones that think they will just bang in some time and leave for Asia. Well, once you figure out why the Asians are paying $300k/yr and still can't get enough punters, you will realize there is no better place for aviation than the US. Trust me, once you get a taste of it, you will park it. How can I be so sure. For the past 10 years I've flown for 2 Asian airlines, 1 European, and 1 Middle Eastern.

Don't take offense ya'll, Im just tellin it like it is.

While I do NOT see it likely that principal applicant/holder of E3 would manage green card through employment (airline), do not forget that their married spouse can work without restrictions and can later be the principal 'green card' visa or H1 initially, with right skills and employer/job.

Those who think USA is only fat females, need to actually stop watching movies taking place in SE US and go to NW US in person. True, past 30 it is less likely due to lifestyle, but get over that cliche. Nevermind the amount of Asian females that do not seem to inherit the 'fat gene' Native American and African descent people do.

cf680c2b,
why not going to certain Asian carriers to even out the crap regional pay? After all, once Aussies get to their domestic/regional, they get more take home pay for the cost of living/market than equivalent in US. The main issue for them is bridgeing piston GA to airline with the hiring/market as it is there. I met 1000hr+ guy with UK ancestry near London not long ago, talking 'space shuttle requirements' to join Aussie regional. So he went to UK to get some 737/320 time before going home.

We're talking pilots who can't get ahead due to silly job market/high criteria for jobs, who'd go for the E3 option, make the most of it for 2 or 4 years and then likely head back. Yes, not being apologetic regarding the T&Cs and need to improve them. Aviation is global and for the vast majority part the US pilots went to work all over the world, depending on coin and passports, of all sorts of experience when furloughed etc,

so please do not be so hypocritical 'defending own patch' when you've been conquering jobs successfully all over the world.

Why is newhire/junior-ish FO at regional more of an issue, moving countries, than experienced PIC or senior FO going out of US to work abroad? It'd not be more than tip of iceberg, as the 1500hrs (no other R-ATP would cut it for non ERAU, non US exmil pilots) are guys who already have worked in GA in Australia (or NZ, Africa, Indonesia etc, forced to relocate for early jobs). If anything, it'd improve newbie job market, vertical movement across Pacific - the job market is much smaller and those who actually venture on E-3 path, would be drop in ocean on US job market.

Spot on. :D This E-3 visa with regional opportunities might be my saviour. Holding FAA certs, been flying turboprop in South East Asia, can't go back to Aust because of the economy heading south. Being an ethnic Korean, it's gonna be either Korea or U.S. Bad T&C, never mind. Somebody giving me a chance with a regional CRJ job in U.S, I wouldn't think twice about it. It's the best place for flying.

Martin


I beg to differ on the assertion that aviation is global. Aviation has always been a protected realm and still is. Can I go work for Qantas, BA, Air Canada, Air France, South African, JAL (not alter ego JALways). No, I cannot if I do not hold the passport or the license (Now, what the Queen’s commonwealth do with each other, I’m not too sure about). There are small pockets within various regions that have opened their doors for foreign Pilot for one reason only, supply. Once they procure that supply domestically, guess what will happen to the expat?



That deficiency in supply has driven up the wages, which is the primary reason I ventured out. It was not to obtain experience. My presence did not cause the depression of wages nor did I take anyone’s job. In an aggregate, I was part a very small minority of American Pilots who left for overseas opportunities.


This leads me back to the #1 argument of my original post. For decades the US market had settled on an imbalanced supply side stagnating wages to poverty level making the ROI for Pilot certificates negative. Those market forces have finally caused a shift in the supply curve forcing airlines to struggle with the status quo wages. American Pilots finally see the light at the end of the tunnel and adding 1 drop in the bucket of the old structure is not in the best interest of the indigenous.


If bridging gaps in Australia is a big problem, perspective new entrants should take that into account and avoid. Only then, will that structural failure be rectified.

I'd be curious to know just how serious Skywest really is about this. Granted, the process seems much easier than the whole H-1B mess, but still it seems to me it would be hardly worth it to sponsor and train people most of whom will likely bolt at the very first opportunity. This is true of the natives also, hit at least they didn't need sponsorship.

I've heard that Pay-to-Fly with some form of bonding has been suggested.
Reminds me a little of this but without the layoffs...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us...ents.html?_r=0

The American Revolutionary war of 1775-83 notwithstanding, have we Brits ever upset the Americans??? We never seem to get these gigs. Apparently we're one of the few countries ineligible to play the green card lottery, just wondering why?:confused:

Reverserbucket,

"I've heard that Pay-to-Fly with some form of bonding has been suggested."

Suggested by whom and in what context ? This Skywest thing ?

I don't know if any have been hired yet, but so far there are none in any recent new hire class or on the line that got here under the E3 visa.

That's the thing. Until someone actually has a proof that Australians got hired by Skywest, this is at the moment, a complete utter :ugh:

Captbod,
The lottery is for countries that do not traditionally send a lot of emigrants to the US. If a country sends over a certain threshold number, then they're ineligible. A lot of Brits come to the States on employment preferences and as spouses, so there are enough to kick the UK out of the lottery. Northern Ireland is counted separately, and people from NI are eligible to apply.

You know it's funny what you guys are saying about American girls, way back in 1999 I was part of a group of 6 young CPL/FIs from New Zealand, who all went to flying school together. Times were hard finding jobs in NZ, so we all kind of simultaneously found ourselves with the same plan of going to the UK on "working holiday" visas (which are pretty easy for kiwis to get).

At the time, we all kind of had the intention of padding our logbooks for a couple of years and then heading back home down under.

But life happened as it does, and every single one of us ended up falling in love / getting married to a Brit. 15 years later we've all got British passports and kids now, every single one ended up flying heavy jets in the UK (although a couple have now moved on to Emirates and Cathay).

The reason the E3 visa bill was passed by congress was that Australia already had given the right for Americans in professions the right to work in Australia. The bill is reciprocating what is available to Americans, except the USA put a cap on the number of visas issued to 10,500. Australia does not have a cap. Australia will also issue a visa to a skilled technical trade (eg a welder), the USA requirement is college degree or equivalent.

Australian organisations have employed American pilots with this visa class even for positions that due to national security reasons would normally only be available to Australians.

There are Americans working for Qantas and Virgin. Many high paid defence support roles are also filled by Americans, not just flying jobs.

Please stick to the facts that you have direct knowledge of.

Eyes only,

"There are Americans working for Qantas..."

As cockpit crew ? If so, would you have any details about how ?

[I'm not job hunting...just curious]

There is no requirement in Australia to have an Australian passport, birth certificate, or citizenship to be a pilot. You can be American. There are still only four forces on the aircraft in Australia, money, bills, beer and sleep, in New Zealand the forces are different bro, money, bills, beer and sheep.

I would suggest that today as a flying instructor or pilot you can get a temporary long stay visa (Australian version of the E3), work in the industry, and then gain residency.

Why you would leave the US and go to Australia to fly is beyond me, unless it is to get yourself home.

I can't imagine any qualified foreign pilots coming to a US regional for 20 bucks an hour. For all but the PTF types, it is a pay cut. I do see lots of foreign pilots wanting to work at a major US carrier, starting at 50-60 dollars an hour, and getting on a seniority list of a major airline.

I think the solution that is coming, is the US majors will bring a lot of the RJ flying in-house. Then, and only then, will they be able to attract qualified pilots from around the world.

I think this is coming. All of the majors are hiring far more than they need for the replacement of retirements. I can't think of any reason they are doing this, other than bringing more regional flying in house.

Converting to an FAA license is usually much easier than converting FROM an FAA license, at least for Europeans. Aussies, I don't know.

This is a truly laughable statement. While I enjoyed my time in the US and have a great fondness for the country, it has a toxic aviation industry, at least in terms of the airlines. I am now happily flying for my national carrier back home in Europe; my first months pay cheque was as much as I made in six months at my last airline (yes, it was a regional). I have no desire to ever go back to fly, not even for a major. I love the country and the people, but aviation is a putrid business in the US.

EMB-145LR
 

Congratulations on finding your path.

I'm guessing you did a couple of thousand hours on the RJ ( not competitive for the U.S. majors), making you a good candidate for your national carrier. Now making the "big dough" :ok:

However, I'm pretty sure that putrid environment got you to where you are now. Right or wrong?

I do agree that it is not a savory business back in the U.S. in the lower tier. That is one of the points of this thread. The market is trying to adjust and guys like you coming in to build time induces an artificial stimulus to the imbalance.

Indeed it did, and I will always be extremely grateful for the chances afforded to me by the US. I got a job at BA with 3,000 hours total time. Not much by US standards, but by no means 'low hours', especially here in Europe.

However, something has to be done about the crippling terms and conditions on offer at the regionals. Hopefully the increasing shortage of qualified and willing candidates will put pay to the worst carriers. It was good to see the Republic pilots turn down the new contract, even though it effectively doubled first year pay.

However, while things are good for pilots lucky enough to be at a Major at the moment, both you and I know that history repeats itself. The US majors hire until they furlough. Although this industry is cyclical the world over, it is even more so in the US. During the boom years things are great, but look at the rates the L-UAL pilots were working under until just a couple of years ago. Senior Captains were making a little over $120 an hour on the A320.

The likes of Smisek (thank God he's gone) have made the industry awful in the US. Not just for pilots, but also for passengers. I was embarrassed to offer the product we had at my United Express carrier, and it wasn't any better at mainline. The industry seems to be one of the few in the US that has deserted one of the best aspects of America; great customer service. The whole industry needs massive revamp, and ALPA protectionism isn't going to do much to save it.

It is no accident that out of the most hated brands in America, United was in the top five, with American not too far behind. At least Delta is making some forward progress, but the Middle East Big Three are breathing down their necks.

I agree. However, the current demographics may negate historical precedence, theoretically. Only time will tell.

I believe, the pressure from the ME3 is a good thing for the U.S. Legacies. Competition breeds innovation and dynamism. They will step up to the plate once they consolidate and solidify their structure after the recent mergers. Delta got a head start hence the notable progress. AA still doesn't have single list. UA, well, you said it best...

Aussies moving abroad to get jobs ???

Mmmm... Where are gone the days where the Aussie pilot community was outraged at 457 sponsored pilots who were coming to take over the local pilot jobs...?
But an available E3 non immigrant visa is now just SO right?
I seem to remember the rage ...A very short memory from down under.

No jobs available anymore at home : "mate" ? Times are getting harder at home "mate" ?

Still not happy to take a $20job/hour ? Not good enough for an Aussie ?
Just wait, you might be begging/crying for it soon.

discus2,

There are lots of Americans working in Australia on 457 visas, how many of the 3000 Boeing employees in Australia do you think are on those visas ? Northrop Grumman, Lockheed, GE, PW, IBM ? The aerospace/defense industry is full of them, on wages way above the Australian average.

Across all industries, 457 visa holders earn 34% more than local staff on average. With an average annual base salary of $94,000, the average 457 visa holder sits comfortably above the 75th percentile of Australian full time salaries.

Please stick to the facts.

None. E-3 visa is only for Australian citizens.

There ya go. :E

You're either joking, detached from reality or poorly phrased it. I work for SkyWest, we are losing many, many RJ pilots a month to the majors. Friends at other RJ operators are reporting the same.

I emailed them
 

Skywest replied that they aren't sponsoring pilots for visas at this time.

West Coast,

"... I work for SkyWest, we are losing many, many RJ pilots a month to the majors. Friends at other RJ operators are reporting the same."


Exactly !! With the demand only increasing at the legacy level. The peak of the mandatory-retirement bell curve doesn't come until 2028...and remains strong for years after 2028 but with decreasing annual numbers.

Which is why it wouldn't have surprised me to find a regional sponsoring expats. I'm a bit surprised to find they apparently aren't doing that after all.

Oh well...

flyboyike,

I have no idea what it'd take for a regional to set up this process. Perhaps just some time with an immigration attorney to set up the company process for advertising for candidates and processing their visas ? Maybe then a knowledgeable secretary could run it from there using intermittent contact with the attorney thereafter for snags ?

zondaracer seems to have seen this from the inside and reports no such activity.

oicur12.again, the person who kicked this off in the Aussie forum with some pretty definitive statements, and pilotchute, who just heard from Skywest directly, tell rather different stories. I'M NOT INCLINED TO DOUBT EITHER ONE OF THEM.

After all, they were both talking to a regional HR department, so...

The proof is in the pudding; if Skywest aren't availing themselves of a process likely to turn out a number of applicants, perhaps they're not all that hard up (yet ?).

[I get the impression Expressjet is hard up and yet clearly states they want nothing to do with sponsorship. They're not losing pilots...they're bleeding pilots.]

And, "...(discrimination claims ?)..." ? Surely you aren't suggesting that our beloved Imperial Federal Government would devise and implement a plan that could later be deemed discriminatory by its very structure ?

Fun to watch...still wouldn't surprise me if some regional started using this process to circumvent the damage done by the vote trollops in DC. We'll see...

ike,

You're probably right...

I've tried not to contribute to thread drift since I think this thread (and it's companion in the Aussie forum) is pretty interesting. But, I remembered I've got a link to an academic study of the US pilot shortage issue that may (or may not) be relevant to the conditions that prompted this thread.

It's written as a PhD thesis, I believe, and is therefore strictly a data-based treatment of the subject by an apparently impartial author.

Being a hardcore cynic, I view any study of the US pilot supply done by a person or party with even a remote chance of financial and/or political gain from seeing the data show one conclusion or another as suspect at least. This makes studies done by government, labor groups and industry representatives have potential bias.

Here's the link:

Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation | RAND

Click the button in the upper right to download the PDF. The study is a bit long with lots of charts and data but worth your time if you've a bit of a geek like me.

The author pointed out to me in private correspondence that his data runs out for about 15 years +/-.

Interesting study, bafanguy. wading thru some of it now. One minor detail which jumped out at me, in section 2 the author reviews other previous related studies. In the discussion of a MITRE report he notes that the MITRE report cites 8000 pilots who were issued an ATP in the US and are now working abroad as a potential source of pilots for US airlines. The RAND paper dismisses this explaining that they are foreign pilots who came to the US for flight training and thus not potential pilots for US airlines.

I think that they are mistaken here. I don't know what the criteria was in the MITRE report, but I do know the there are a lot of US citizens flying for airlines in Asia and the Mideast. Not sure hoe any, but I don't think that their numbers are inconsequential. I would imagine that many of them could be persuaded back to the US with decent pay and conditions.

From a General Accounting Office report referenced in the RAND Report.

Cliff's notes: Airlines are paying less and less. Astonishingly, pilots are less willing to work for decreasing wages.

A Squared,

Yes, I think I remember that number also. I don't see how one gets a clear breakdown of how many Americans are working in the expat world since there's no central collection point for that data...or their age demographic since that'd be a critical factor in their employment chances with US legacies in the broad scheme of it.

Who can say whether that 8,000, if employable here, would want to leave an expat captain slot, come back here and be a junior MD80 FO, in a crash pad and on reserve in NYC covering 3 airports...at a fraction of what they were making ? A handful of anecdotal opinions here won't answer that question, I'm afraid.

I sure don't know how anyone can begin to answer that particular question.

I've heard a very knowledgeable American guy say he put the number of US citizens working in the expat market at 1,000+/-. He wasn't making a definitive pronouncement but rather an educated estimate.

Many of that 8,000 probably are foreign nationals who aren't candidates for US carriers due to citizenship issues...probably...

In any event, even 8,000 won't solve the problem (if it is a problem) of replacing legacy retirement attrition. Delta alone is aging out 8,000 pilots between Jan/2014 and Dec/2028. The annual numbers peak at the end of 2028 but continue at a pretty good, but annually-declining clip after 2028.

UAL and AA have similar circumstances (UPS and FedEx are also losing people but not such large percentages).

Hiring a bunch of 50+ y/o people from the expat market would help but to a limited extent as they'd age out about the time the attrition peaks. What then ?

I've been watching this stuff since the late 60s..and still don't feel I have a grip on it.
Mike McGee's study is a really good one.

My opinion, on the other hand, is worth exactly what you paid for it !!