One day after this 'pandemic' social distancing will have gone... So yes, the 25 min turnarounds will be back!

Give it an year and half +/-, a working vaccine, some virus normal weakening&people immunity and memories erasure process and yeap, indeed... No doubts about that.

Peoples memories are short, absolutely, but you still have to have money to travel especially for holiday travel which is entirely discretionary. The world wide wealth destruction that has occurred in the last month is unprecedented. For most average people it will take years to regain the financial position they had in January and many may never get back.

There are a range of possible outcomes and my guess is a good as yours, but the possibility of a permanent reset of the airline industry to a smaller footprint dominated by a few major players with near monopoly pricing power is definitely one of the possible outcomes. My personal opinion worth exactly what you paid for it, is that this is what I think is the most likely outcome.

Hope you are right - but here we are 40 years after the HIV virus and no vaccine found yet .... so I have my doubts about your comment.

You can’t compare HIV to a corona type virus, it’s a completely different type of virus. Just do a little bit of reading at least. If nothing else you’ll learn something new.

CP

And of course hope that the rent a car was properly disinfected..

There’s no vaccine for HIV, but big pharmaceutical companies make a load of money with the antiviral drugs that treat the disease though....make of that what you will.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/ai...RZ854znrCdZQrE

Air France will need 7 thousand million euros, will start to "release" staff with voluntary/mutual accordance and wont expect to return to normality at least within 2 years from now...

Or perhaps people should make some research before jumping to conclusions?

Here's a link highlighting the problems scientists are having with HIV:

https://www.healthline.com/health/hi...e-we#obstacles

This is particularly interesting as some seems to think finding a corona vaccine is going to be equally hard to come up with as it is with HIV.

"Most vaccines protect against viruses that enter the body through the respiratory or gastrointestinal systems. More viruses enter the body in these two ways, so we have more experience addressing them. But HIV enters the body most often through genital surfaces or the blood. We have less experience protecting against viruses that enter the body in those ways."

"Vaccines protect against disease, not infection. HIV is an infection until it progresses to stage 3, or AIDS. With most infections, vaccines buy the body more time to clear the infection on its own before disease occurs. However, HIV has a long dormant period before it progresses to AIDS. During this period, the virus hides itself in the DNA of the person with the virus. The body can’t find and destroy all of the hidden copies of the virus to cure itself. So, a vaccine to buy more time won’t work with HIV."

This last quote is talking about latent provirus (virus genome integrated into the DNA of the host cell) reservoirs in the CD4+ T cells. This is one of the huge challenges with finding a vaccine and a cure for HIV.

Finding a vaccine for the COVID19, and similar virus, on the other hand is routine work for medical professionals and scientists today. They just need time and from what I can see we are talking about 12-18 months before we have one (or more) available for mass distribution / vaccination.

Don't let facts ruin a good story though. ;-)

CP

CP, we do not even know whether someone who has fully recovered from this disease has any reasonable immunity to reinfection. We also do not know whether immunity to one strain (if that is even possible) gives immunity to another. Many teams are having a go at finding a useful vaccine because finding one is probably our best solution to this problem, but success is by no means a given.

Yep, well said. Doesn't seem to me like this is "routine work" and all we need is "time".

Going back to the ot.

I think more than a few people are trying to predict what’s going to happen based on common logic, previous economy patterns etc.

The thing is, this is not a case of which company is richer, bigger, older. This is a case of which companies can get money and credit lines from governments, shareholders and banks.
There is simply no way any private air transport business can survive something like this.

Just look at which group any given airline belongs to, or who are the shareholders, or if it’s backed by their governments and you’ll have a pretty accurate idea of who has a chance.

In a (not so) extreme example, nothing would stop all private airlines being wiped from the globe, and starting from scratch in a couple of years with new, debt free companies. Just saying.

Commercial aviation is vital to any country’s economy. VITAL. So in a couple of years time it will probably be almost normal. Between now and then, what I said before.
Good luck to all of us.

Rather unpleasant outlook but it's the same for many if not all industries and trades it seems. It looks like Corona crisis will not just take some months but maybe this entire year - at least. So we need strategies to return to normal before we in fact are back at (new) normal.

Very worrying times for the industry. No exit strategy means a complete impossibility to plan any recovery. Then this nugget appears today:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52439405

It appears some with an agenda are using this crisis as an opportunity to hit the aviation industry hard under the "Climate Change" banner. "Protect the NHS" is the UK Govt's strapline. Many seem to not understand that no economy = no tax income = no NHS. Aviation is a key economic pillar.

Whether we are aircrew, air traffic, engineering, ground support, manufacturers or any one of the plethora of related trades that make up this industry, we are all suffering here. Together we must stand. Stay safe all.

When the NHS hero-worship groupthink descends into resentment because of delayed diagnosis, delayed surgery, grannies not getting ventilated etc, at least we'll have videos of clapping and high-fives. Should be of comfort to those of us when the emails concerning litigations start coming in from the trust.

Completely agree that the long-view needs to start being taken, it hasn't to date.

Very true - with todays news, if the 50,000 jobs in the UK that rely on Airbus are lost along with million other jobs that depend on aviation that is a going to be a big hit to the ability to pay for things like the NHS.

Worrying indeed as it is exactly the same issue in France, Macron needs support from the ecologist parties ( green parties) to govern and win the next elections . His own Environment minister has declared this morning on a radio program that the Government will ensure that public money granted to help AF will be met by assurances that CO2 emissions will be drastically reduced , and that domestic flights will be restricted to favor SNCF high speed trains .
Ben Smith ( CEO AF) has apparently agreed to this and is reported to have also declared that it will take at least 2 years to get out of the current crisis .

Knowledgeable people down the pub used to explain to me why inflation was a good thing. I never did get the hang of it, despite being cushioned by it for a large part of my life. I'm not very proud of that by the way.

I hear Acme Air is expanding. What's the job situation? Just swap Acme for a slew of names and you'll know what I've been hearing for most of my flying life. Expansion is a company necessity, right? It's part of a model that can't function as a stable entity. I never understood why.

A neighbour of mine owned a lot of the town. I asked his advice about leasing office space. "The future rent will reflect the new value of the property. Investors expect that." Councils seem to have similar notions about rates. I understood unstable business models that so closely emulated greed.

I've never really understood why a world can't be run on cooperation and kindness, and nor it seems has a major nation, since such concepts could get one lynched. And now we've arrived at a point that we're ill-equipped to handle. Oh, we're making the right noises, but the truth of the situation has been spelled out in posts above, and for this reason we, that is all nations, shouldn't expect to go back to the pre-virus life we led. It is simply too dangerous - and that's trading and fiscal danger I'm talking about. We know about the risk of patchy Covid-19 flare-ups, but the danger of a second, or third quick-succession virus is statistically too real. The entire world needs to be braced for at least one added pandemic.

Talk of 'getting back to normal' fills me with unease, primarily because in so many people it feeds feel-good circuits in brains that are not seeing a history-altering danger any more clearly than they can see virions.

https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/de...t-27042020.pdf
Eurocontrol forecast issued yesterday . very optimistic on both scenarios if you ask me , (but they did not :) ) because this is not what I hear when talking to people around me .
The so called Chinese recovery cannot really be transposed in Europe and private airlines will not fly empty aircraft around to please their Governments statistics....
The medical people everywhere are now preparing for a second wave as restrictions are lifted too early for political reasons . Then the effects mentioned by Loose Rivets on his post above might slow down even more aviation as we knew it .

The UK 2 week quarantine for arrivals doesn't seem to be fake news; absolutely insane but they really are actually proposing this.

If that goes ahead, then all UK operators (and most international businesses) may as well board up the windows and turn off the lights.