Thanks for the reply FoxChaRomeo. I think your right. Any plan made to call people out of the pool if subject to massive change depending on people accepting or not. Which as you said they’ll only know when they start making the offers. Based solely on people you and I know, it does sound like a sizable chunk have moved on. But, it’s anyone’s guess.

Not involved in the pool myself so these comments are totally from an observer.

If I were "swimming" I would have every right to be quite annoyed with the situation. The selection process is not trivial and requires a large amount of preparation is required, which, one would assume would lead to a job with BA if successful. I'm glad the holding pool lifeline has been extended but if I were to "expire" I'd expect to be re-imbursed the costs incurred to attend the selection events. In other news I saw a flying pig the other day...

Hope you all get the call :ok:

The number of freeze waivers granted this year would suggest that the company has been proactive in filling LH vacancies by moving people off the 320 fleet early. That alone suggests to me that there will be limited if any LH DEP recruitment.

And from the hold pool update in January...

I agree. Not an accusation at any individuals but there appears to be a touch of 'institutional arrogance'...

"we are British Airways, so people will wait. We've had a better idea and can save some cash by only employing cadets, but if that doesn't work out, we can still go back to the DEP hold pool cos people still want to work for us"

Absolutely. I think this time round they may be quite surprised.

I bet they won’t be surprised 🙄

You'll be joining at 4100+.

In 2033 you'll be 3100 on present predictions.

SH LHS is about 2400, LH 1550 ish.

Do the maths.

Blimey, those figures are assuming an attrition rate of 66 pilots a year. Now that the retirements have gone back to normal I’ve gone up 183 places in 18 months. That’s almost double your figures so somebody isn’t doing the maths correctly.

Your figures would mean a new joiner of the age of 25 would only barely (by a year or so) achieve a long haul command by the end of their 40 years service!

The demographics of the retirement rate across all western economies is far in excess of any historical reference point; the data simply does not exist.

Given the impact on asset markets, health care provision and even considerations of tax I would treat any prediction of advancement based on any historical metric to be of limited value.

Governments the world over are struggling with an aging workforce they are simply concerned with tax and spend, not service provision. On all western economies measures they all begin a great stagnation for at least a decade commencing now and continuing country after country.

Agreed, Gents, the goalposts do move. But to those who aren't anointed, it's not the end of the world.

Rex,
Blimey’s figures for seniority are based on the seniority predictor spreadsheet that was created a year or so ago. It takes everyone’s age into account, but assumes retirement at age 65. It also doesn’t take standard attrition due to loss of licence etc. into account. Some years have significantly higher rates of retirement than others, but it only goes up as far as 2033. You cannot just extrapolate figures beyond 2033 to work out seniority in later years in the way you have done, because BA has some very definite age demographic variations at various seniority positions.

Also worth noting that LH RHS is down to 3540 ish (excluding forced bids off the 767), so the chances are that like most people, after your initial 5 year freeze on the Airbus is over, a Long Haul seat will be available to you.

If you're in your 20's or 30's and you want to have the opportunity to fly long haul at some point it's still a no brainer in my opinion. 5 years on the Airbus at BA or 30 years on the Airbus somewhere else... take your pick. Of course, I totally understand that for some people short haul is their preferred lifestyle choice and thats just as valid a decision on a personal level. It's certainly very difficult (impossible?) to make the argument to leave somewhere like easyJet if your ambition is to remain on short haul long term.

A large number of the “junior jets” are sitting on LH commands and are now in their mid to late 40’s. With part time options I think a good number of these will stick around to 60 if not 65. This is going to effectively stall natural progression. We all have potentially longer careers and some through circumstance have lucked out on pay point 24 with another 15 years or more to go. Each to their own but BA is a long game and a good assumption would be that not much is going to come quickly. Historically RHS LH was 5/7 years. A SH command about 12/15 and a LH over 20. Don’t wish your life away because it will be behind you faster than any of us imagine.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but part time options will meant that the seniority required to get on a certain fleet or certain seat will reduce, right?

It's surely a good thing for people lower down the pecking order to have people above them going part time? Rather than working 100% until the day they retire?

Two 50% part time skippers on the 787 for example are essentially taking one spot. Or am I being too simplistic? (Quite possible!:confused:)

I don’t think it will make much difference because those who would go “stuff it” and retire at 55 or 60 are generally now deciding to ease off the gas and continue working but part time. If you were on the top pay scale choosing your work and doing a few trips a month on which you can take your partner or kids why would you retire? People say the pension will be a big driver for retirements but that’s not the noises I hear.

On a positive note though. Gatwick slots, NEO’s arriving this year to replace older 319’s at LHR. IAG have slots which need flying, some aircraft they could keep hold of to slot sit and a pool of pilots. Despite what people say, in the short to medium term it will be a BA gig and maybe Level will have some later but who knows. That has to be the positive driver of recruitment.

I agree Bex. The PRIAM results just produced are now obsolete. These Gatwick slots could have just changed an awful lot of the strategy and I’d be quietly optimistic if I was in the hold pool at the moment.

For the sake of those treading water in the hold pool I sincerely hope you’re right and suspect you may well be. On the other hand, the PRIAM results were being sorted around the same time as these slots would have been negotiated. So was this part of the reason for the significant number of FW’s (excluding the required moves off the retiring 767 fleet)?

Who knows.

In any event, the effort required to pass the BA recruitment process is substantial and I really hope the guys and girls waiting for a start date will come off well from the forthcoming LGW expansion. They deserve it after such a long wait!

At about the time the PRIAM results were being produced, KPMG had lost their case in the courts and were deemed not to have the right to sell Monarch’s slots. They were appealing against the decision, but had not had it reversed yet. The question is do BAs pilot P&P and recruitment plans take the Gatwick slots into account, and based upon the above, I’m suspecting they don’t. After that, it depends whether they can meet the new requirement using just the FPP recruits, and again, I suspect they cannot. I should point out these are all just guesses as I have absolutely zero inside info on the subject.

The latest PRIAM results did not take into account potential LGW slots (and from that I 'assume' recruitment’s needs to date did not either). No news from network planning as to the likely requirement as yet.

That is all...

I don’t think we even know how many mince pie’s we need for Christmas let alone anything else.