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Three Lions - Just to explain, my comments about the 200 hour cadets were not to say that we do not have them but rather you cannot run an airline with them. By that I mean you need experienced captains and training captains in particular. You can make up the demographics of the FOs how you like, although you would be very unwise not build in the possibility of promoting them as time goes by. Low-houred cadets will not be promotable for some years and that may stunt your growth later on.
As others are pointing out here, Vueling could yet be the saviour of NAS in providing crews at the right time for their Airbuses. The problem with that is that Vueling are now an appendage of British Airways, who are attacking the low cost market themselves in a big way through them. The players fighting it out are basically easyJet, Ryanair, Norwegian and Vueling. Everyone has a a price and if Norwegian gets that right they can pick the pocket of Vueling and get whoever they want. The problem is that BA (Vueling's backers) have two massive incentives to stop that happening - their own desire to be top dog in the market, for which they require experienced captains and the need to prevent Norwegian expanding. Both can be achieved by preventing the flow of key pilots (experienced training captains in particular) leaving them through their own inducement packages. (I just hope easyJet do the same!) This is a competitive industry and all players in the game must pay the market rate to get the goods and services they require. If you require some very experienced pilots on type, and everyone is basically looking for the same people, then that puts up the price - the wonders of supply and demand. If there is a glut then the price goes down - simples! Just have a look at some of the salaries A320 captains can command in China right now to see what supply and demand does. Frankly, I can only rejoice at the situation and hope we all benefit. |
AdM,
Most of us have been waiting for the pendulum to swing the other way on "Supply&Demand" for a L O N G time. Unfortunately, every time we thought we were "nearly there", someone else conveniently (for the Beanies :mad: ) went bust, and the status quo continued. I admire your optimism, and cross my fingers it is well placed. :D |
For example, that little white bump on their 737 fuselage with all the wi-fi gubbins in it would cost around 1% in a fuel penalty - that is a catastrophic loss for any airline given the margins. But every 738 of theirs carries ~20% more passengers than an Orange 319... So even if you reckon their smart uniforms will only account for persuading 1% of their punters they're a better outfit than EZY, they're still generating 20% more revenue per flight for an equal ticket price. What is refreshing about the Norwegians is that they are nowhere near as cynical as the English. No doubt Kjus is a maverick and I think their expansion will slow but its laughable to suggest they're losing money. They're making boatloads of it. However, the share price is under sustained attack for all sorts of reasons, many mentioned on the board already.... NAS can always, in the final analysis, retreat to Scandanavia, but my guess is that isn't about to happen soon. |
SR71 - there is no doubt that a 738 is a good size, but the only thing that matters is the cost/seat. When easyJet bought the A319 more than 10 years ago it was a deal they could not say no to. The future of easyJet is the A320 (180 seats) and the A319 (156 seats) will gradually disappear. The reason Ryanair have maintained their No 1 position at taking the most passenger is having a 189-seater aircraft, when for years easyJet had a 156-seater as competition. Although I always doubted the wisdom of the A319 (Hamburg-built), at the time the order was made there were no production line slots available for the A320 (Toulouse-built). Therefore easyJet got a fantastic deal, which at the time was the best in Airbus's history. I am told this latest deal is actually an even better one, although the details are very secretive, as you might expect. Norwegian currently have 73 738's (186/189-seater) and in Nov 13 easyJet had 64 A320s, but that changes month by month in favour of more A320s. Norwegian have taken a big risk by signing up to massive expansion plus a split fleet of Airbuses and 737s - something considered absolutely opposed to a successful low cost model. As I have said previously, they have decided to go for massive expansion directly into the territory of easyJet, Ryanair and Vueling - some might say fools step in where angels fear to tread. You can argue who has the lower costs, but no sensible low cost airline wants to complete directly with another one rather than go for the easy pickings of the legacies. Everyone who goes on Norwegian say it is a great service, and I have no doubt that is the case. Where my doubts lie are in the sustainability of direct competition against far more established carriers who have been able to negotiate better deals at more favourable terms. There is no doubt their crew costs are better due to their policy of employing contractors and non-unionisation. They could prove me wrong, but right now I do not believe that they will have the long-term survivability of Ryanair or easyJet.
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ADM
Quick facts about Norwegian:
Number of aircraft: 87 Number of routes: 413 Number of destinations: 128 Pax 2013: 20.7 million Pax Jan 2014 1'530,441 Of these 87 aircraft 84 are 737's and another 13 are due this year, two delivered already, plus another 4 787, the reason for ordering both have been explained elsewhere, the Neo has lower fuel burn than the NG the MAX will have lower fuel burn than the Neo and Norwegian can not get more aircraft from either supplier more quickly than going down the dual supply route, plus it screws others up from getting aircraft with lower costs earlier. The difference in uniform cost will be a €400 or so, but when you wear one and walk past some other airlines crews you know you belong some where that values quality. Just read the reviews on Skytrax (non long haul) which is very positive and although the reliability issue with the 787 have without doubt hurt, it will recover once the 787 fleet reaches a critical mass, especially if they get hold of the cancelled Lion air order for 5 with delivery due in 2015. The principal share holder is 67 and can't/won't wait 20 years for it to grow. The various performance packages on all new build aircraft more than offsets the 1% (if that is what it is, I think it might be higher?) for the hump, and all new aircraft are 500kg lighter due different interior trim anyway. 25m is more than achievable this year, but that still a long way behind easyJet, let alone Ryanair who have out grown easyJet year on year until of late. Vueling pilot salaries are one reason why IAG have ordered 60 airbus for them to play with, but Norwegian have not been over impressed with the CRM demonstrated by some Spanish applicants, so i don't think you will see wholesale Vueling recruitment in the way that Ryanair pilots are joining Norwegian In 6 years they plan to be at 220+ aircraft, in the mean time its good to see more job opportunities |
SR71. So even if you reckon their smart uniforms will only account for persuading 1% of their punters they're a better outfit than EZY, they're still generating 20% more revenue per flight for an equal ticket price. Are they? |
Kick the tyres
I doubt if You will get an answer to the cost per seat mile from anyone NAS undoubtedly know this down to the last decimal point..... as for EZY my experience indicates they are unable to count the number of seats on an aircraft to sell !
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kick the tires - the operating costs of an easyJet A319 are substantially lower, but of course they take less punters. Without wishing to ignite the Airbus v Boeing debate, both companies would claim their operating costs are less when comparing a 320 to a 738. Even more difficult to know the truth over are the costs of operating a 737 Max v the A320NEO. Norwegian have taken the decision to hedge their bets and do both - not sure that has efficiency written on it, but that is the game plan. I accept the production slot argument (the same one that made easyJet by A319s instead of A320s). Nonetheless, it is simply not low cost 'best practice' to run two fleets with all the duplication of effort that entails, not to mention the reduction of flexibility in terms of cross utilisation of crews. Anyway, that is their decision, and we will see who is right.
LNIDA Thanks for that info. The 738 figures I quoted I think are actually correct as the rest are 300s or similar. I am not aware of any Airbus recruitment being started by them yet, but however they do it they will have to attract TREs and the like - my view is that without a substantial inducement that will not happen. I am not planning to go there, but any upwards pressure on salaries is good news for us all. The big 'boom or bust' decision by Norwegian is to reach 220+ aircraft in 6 years. That will prove to be either amazingly insightful or a complete disaster - I am not at all sure it will be a smart move but we shall see. Low cost airlines run on amazingly tight margins and even the decision to de-ice can destroy the profit for a flight. Therefore 1% fuel burns, wi-fi, video on demand etc is all added cost that is again totally opposed to the low cost traditional model. Have Norwegian got it right? I personally do not think so, but I may yet be proven wrong. There is no doubt they are making a big splash but, being a cautious individual, I would not be betting my house on their ultimate success. |
Norwegian have to succeed
The Ryanair and Easyjet led quest to minimise costs as far as possible including the secondary action of flooding the market with as some one stated "200 hour wonder kids" for the good of the industry it has to end. Quoting the minutiae if 1% gains due to wifi humps on fuselages et al - Wake up and smell the coffee. Ryanair and Easyjet in the bulk of Europe and Wizz air in Eastern Europe are actually driving the whole industry downwards forcing high quality operators to follow suit simply to stay in business. I'm sure some of the posters on here wouldn't be so complimentary should they be unfortunate to lose their job. And finding it incredibly difficult to secure work even with 1000s of hours experience on type whilst witnessing wave after wave of the so called "200 hour wonder kids" been pushed into the bottom of the structure. It's immoral the only winners are the accountants at the locos and the shareholders at one or two "linked training providers" Norwegian appear to be lining up to inject some much needed humility and respect back into the mix. It's already rubbed off on Michael OLeary long may it continue. Norwegians success over the next few years are absolutely critical Norwegian seem to view the loco operation with much higher regard for a whole raft of areas and not just cost. Airline pilots wearing plastic coats and anoraks... Whatever next donkey jackets with orange trim or a yellow harp in the back? |
The Ryanair and Easyjet led quest to minimise costs as far as possible including the secondary action of flooding the market with as some one stated "200 hour wonder kids" for the good of the industry it has to end. I fail to see how RYR and EZY are 'flooding' a market with 200 boys and girls... Surely it's absorbing said market which already exists... largely due to flight schools with slick marketing who tell the kids they'll walk straight into [Insert national carrier here] |
A d M you don't think between all the crews in Norwegian it might be possible there are TRI and TRE s that maybe just maybe flew other aircraft before they came to NAS? And that maybe just maybe some of them where flying airbus or even TRE s on Airbus before? I know it seems out there but who knows?
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I fail to see how RYR and EZY are 'flooding' a market with 200 boys and girls Wood, trees, see, from, the, can't (rearrange at will) |
If you fail to see it try looking a little harder. It isn't difficult to see tiempoby
Two schools in particular with more than just slick marketing ploy in operation Ryanair have chosen to ignore the health of the industry as a whole something which Norwegian with their approach don't appear to wish to follow. Easyjet have followed Ryanair down this ridiculous path. While Ryanair and Easyjet. And Wizz air for that matter continue to pump "200 hour wonder kids" into an industry while there are many experienced guys either out of work or for some carrier based in Outer Mongolia there is no hope for the industry. Good for the economics of the particular operator on a short to medium term basis. Bad for the industry as a whole long term. Most, if not al Flight training schools do tell cadets what they want to hear. But this isn't the danger area, nor for that matter is P2F which actually doesn't appear to exist in UK since about 2009. A couple of "flight training organisations" they believe they supply a good quality "product" (they were called cadets people or pilots long ago) are the ones in reference in this thread. It is time a few feathers were ruffled. MOL has spotted the threat from Norwegian so that in its self can't be a bad thing. A change is definitely required. No more no less. The current direction is dire. |
Frankly, we don't want or need Sleazy TRE's... Especially if they're gonna instigate/participate in the 'gang-rape' of our T&C's and of 200 hour cadets, with those vultures at CTC.
There's a lot of experienced guys at NAS, and amazingly, some have even flown the scarebus too. Who'd of thought it! :ok: |
When's NAS DEC onto the A320 likely to start?
My CV: EASA ATPL: 25,000 hours total. 9,000 hours P1 A320 & current. 5,000 hours P1 B737. 5,000 hours P1 BAe 146. 5,000 hours P1 F27 etc. No desire to be Based in LGW thanks ;) |
Nightstop, dont do it! ;-)
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Ryanair have done a fantastic job of training all their wonderful type rated 738 pilots, they are a breeze to fly with, very professional and extremely well trained.
They know that the grass is greener, but appreciate it. If the scare bus comes along, then i have no doubt that we will have plenty of applicants from across the globe, including easyJet pilots, perhaps not as many as Ryanair pilots but more than enough, if you work for easy jet and spend the amount of time that ADM spends on what is a Norwegian thread, then you are either worried or interested, otherwise why bother, i don't give a FF what easyJet are up to??:cool::confused: |
Nightstop
Do it ! You will enjoy working for an airline that treats its employees as adults.
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The Crusaders are back!
Dear all.
John Smith mentioned that the management of FR at the end of the day only answer to the shareholders and the manegment of the money. Wrong. As an former Postholder I was ultimatly accountable to the local CAA , the Board of Directors and the Company finaly. As Postholder Head of Training. Diffrent century, same general rules, intension of the law! .? Now for Norwegian. For arguments , lets forget Long Haul,: Boom or Bust. Norwegian is going to kill FR, why , Fr are an Irish born :mad: funded by us owners subridised by Seatle and so scaread they do not even have row 13 in the cabin. It is a pure gamble , a bet, and the inhumane owners and managment are so scared of Murpey they do not even have a seatrow 13,,, children. To them its all a game, Nevertheless, Bjørn is in town. The Polar Bear, Yes he is cosy, But. :... He is All Buisness: Former Norwegian Paratrooper , F 5 and F 104 fighter pilot norways fastest law Degree. Partner in Law firm in Oslo ,spesialicing in merchant marine law, ( yes we stil are the fifth biggest in the world) Bjørn Kjos , Norwegians owner and President is going to employ some French armory to take back what is ours. We founded Dublin, and we shall close it. Normandy is named after ,,, . Stanford Bridge was a blunder, . 40 % of all oil inported to the UK in 1939 to 1940 was on Norwegian keel. We are comming to claim our right. With a super product and Airbus at our side. Merchants we allways , good sailors we allways find. |
Thanks A & C, I can't wait. I've flown as a pax on NAS and was very impressed, no endless condescending PRAMs, no hard sell, nice interior, good wi-fi connection en-route.
Kick the Tires, unless you've got webbed feet, I can't see the attraction of operating out of the UK. Nos vemos pronto de nuevo en la soleada Espana :ok: . |
Nightstop
I agree ! I would still be at a Spansh base if it were not for some (tragic) personal circumstances and UK business interests.
The Spanish base provided a great lifestyle working with a lot of very good people, if my decision was on working conditions alone I would still be in Spain. |
How does the basing policy work for a new joiner guys?
say I wanted to join in order to be based in MAD, is it clear from the beginning what base they give you? and can they change your base any time? |
John Smith, thank you for your timely injection of common sense.
I've read this thread and there's a lot of talk about NAS saving the industry or words to that effect. Wake up guys!! Whether you like it or not, it's about making money and that depends solely on your costs versus how much you can sell tickets for. The difference in uniform cost will be a €400 or so, but when you wear one and walk past some other airlines crews you know you belong some where that values quality the problem for EZY is that RYR are aiming to squeeze the bottom end of the EZY customer base and Norwegian are squeezing the top end with a superior product at a comparable price.........interesting times ahead Norwegian has gone down the road of offering high class refreshments delivered promptly to the passengers and that is what the passengers seem to like, rather than what they see as the bullying tactics of RYR ( and to a lesser extent EZY) that just makes them shut their wallets. I wish NAS the best of luck because I think they're going I need it. To me, something doesn't add up. |
It's a rather sad reflection of the industry when having a half decent paid for uniform can be considered p1$$ing money up the wall, and that having one is seen as a bad thing.
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Thats what they call Envy i think :)
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WHYEYEMAN
It is the unrelenting sales PA's that seem to never stop on some airlines a that are refreshingly absent on NAS that I was referring to.
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The only has to be one winner in this, or?
First EZY discovered they could win over more customers by offering more and better service, closing the gap to the legacy carriers. Then RYR discovered their rotten treatment of customers was actually moving them backwards, so they now try some late chance gimmicks with seating and x-tra small carry on bag, to try to get some positive publicity. Recently I took a flight with with NAS, early morning flight from LGW, first there was no rush and stand 1.5 hours waiting for boarding. Boarding announcement, everybody walked to their allocated seating. I would say the boarding was faster then the free for all you see at some RyR flights. As I was with my daughter, we was both tired, we took of dimmed down lights, and during cruise, guess what, not those bright full on cabin lights, to make you have the most possible unpleasant experience, the lights was dimmed down, so if you wanted to relax / sleep, you could do this. With the other LoCo's, as soon as they go into cruise, it's full lights on, announcements about one thing after the other, it does your head in. I actually bring ear-plugs and sun glasses in, so I can stay in :mad: peace. Because the way they treat me, I am less likely to want to purchase anything, because these companies make me the passenger annoyed. With NAS, I felt respected and I did purchase some things for breakfast for my daughter and me. RyR a little late are discovering what they have been doing have been upsetting customers, however have had little or no competition on their routes. People / customers, are willing to pay a little more, to have these extra services and comfort. Not talking about legacy prices, but within reasonable range of say example RyR. Also it does depend on what level profit margin the companies settles for, of course you can do like some companies do, squeeze the maximum from customers, employees and services, to make the maximum profit in shortest possible time, or are you in it for the long term. Let's make another point clear, what happens the day government wakes up and discovers how LoCo's like Ryanair have been avoiding their social responsibilities for their employees and contractors. Will RyR have enough capital to have to back pay for this? The social dumping model, that these corporations are dealing with is very dangerous and fragile, and there is no doubt that this is heading towards a brick wall. I know NAS have a very different approach to this, maybe not perfect world either, but definitely much more tidy than all the other LoCo's in Europe. The fact is that the difference between example NAS and SAS is much less now, SAS standards gone down, NAS gone up, and it seems NAS is targeting a market where people appreciate quality in addition to good value for money. EZY have themselves discovered that this is the only way forward, and RYR are waking up, but what the future will bring for these companies depends on what the customers want. The current trend is that customers are not happy with RYR, and believe me after flying with NAS, you would never return to RYR unless you had no other options. In addition if you can treat your staff good, I guess NAS is probably the closest any European LoCo has come to the original of Southwest. Personally I would not classify NAS as a LoCost company. |
767200ER, I can assure you that uniform envy is not something I suffer with. If I really wanted to, I could use some of the free shares that I have been given by my employer to buy a top of the range, diamond encrusted Gucci rain coat. I do, however, have better things to do with my money, and so does my employer.
A and C, I'm sure that people far smarter than me, have figured out that making those PA's increases sales. So as those sales are an important part of ancillary revenue, the PA's will continue. They don't work on you, they don't work on me. But they work, and that's what matters. I think business people might be prepared to pay a little extra for the civilised atmosphere on board a NAS flight. But as anyone in any airline's commercial department will tell you, the majority of people will just go with the cheapest option. So, if NAS are going to price-match EZY and Ryanair but have higher costs then there can only be one result. One thing's for sure, it will be interesting to watch, as NAS have certainly put the cat among the pigeons. |
Interesting to watch for sure
No doubt ryr ezy crews and oaa ctc willing NAS to fail. Everyone else willing NAS onwards. |
I am sure DY has a good product at the moment but never the less it is known that DY compared to FR and EZY is the one with the least capital in hand and some claim there are some serious problems ahead for DY and their cash-flow.
I have never flown with them (yet) and I keep hearing of their free wifi and the non existing (in flight) high sale pressure technique by the cabin crew. It is worth however having a look at the fuel price that has dropped some +6% in the last 12 months and now DY has just announced a need to increase baggage and allocated seat selection by 33%. Unlike what many on this thread believe DY is not considered a big threat by EZY. Not yet anyway? The main threat for EZY is Vuelling owned by IAG and we may in the future see BA short haul LGW being replaced by Vuelling planes and a base on very bad terms and conditions making it very competitive against EZY and that includes DY as well if they are still based in LGW by that time. Regarding wifi it is believed that it will be on all EZY planes by 2017. I wish DY all the best but I seriously think they have got too many balls up in the air trying to compete against everybody and it can easily be the end of them no matter how many planes they have got on order. |
I think this also depends on what is your main customer base. I do know many who detest companies like RYR that they rather stay at home than fly with them. This is no longer a small minority group.
Customers attracted to Norway and Scandi-land are also of a stronger financial resource than many of RYR's main customer base, no taunt intended, but the social structure and financial strength of Norway vs example UK, can't even be compared. Norway is one of the richest countries in the world, with a very advanced social structure. UK with regards to average population can't compare in financial strength of their customer base, and probably will find more customers not able to afford better than RYR. But also in UK, as soon as you go to the mid-level income and upwards, they are equally detested by RYR. If you check EZY's new ideas from 2013, you can clearly see they are moving away from this LoCost model. It is better to fill the AC 120 PAX that are willing to spend their money, rather than 180 PAX that all bring their own lunch package from home, not spending a penny onboard, because they have already exceeded their budget on booking their tickets and £50 per extra luggage. Considering this example the tickets for the 120 PAX will have cost the same as RYR's 180 pax total. RYR have cheaper tickets and cheaper clients, with less spending power. Of course you still have many countries where they have no other option, where they still can not afford more, so they have to bring their own lunch and drinks. Value the customers, make the customers feel like they are valued, and they will be coming back for more. Get robbed 40 Euros for each kilo overweight, or 200 Euro for not printing your boarding card in advance, and the publicity over time will kill your business. |
Norway may indeed be one of the richest countries in the world but:
Population of Norway : 5 million Population of the UK: 63 million As far as the uniform goes no way it would cost 400 euros more. The Ezy uniform cannot cost them more than 70 quid all in, half of that being administration and delivery. It is cheap, it feels cheap, it is demoralizing and it reminds us everyday of what the company thinks of us. I think it is extremely bad value for money considering what a uniform is meant to achieve in the first place. There are always people that don't care what they wear in the same way that we see people going on holiday in January with shorts, a t shirt and flip flops. I would say that for most of us is pretty depressing. Specially that nylon winter coat. The NAS uniform must be a lot better but I bet it doesn't really cost that much more. You must remember that EZY is very very good at saving that extra 10p that will cost an extra 5 pounds in the long run. Personally I hope NAS does well and bring with them a more human way of doing business. I fear that they are late to the party and they will need a very very large load of cash to take market share from the incumbents. "Orders are vanity, profits are sanity" |
The Viking hordes
The Viking hordes have returned
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The uniform and all the gear that goes with it(there is a lot) is not even close to 400 euros. Try doubling it and then add on a bit.
All provided by the company. I quite like the warm and fuzzy feeling as well. |
WHYEYEMAN
The sales thing is a lot more subtle than you think and very much aimed at the culture of those you are trying to sell to, what works with a family of chavs won't work with the Scandinavians or the British lower middle classes so you have to play to your audience to make the most of the on board sales.
The interesting thing about NAS is the passenger comments when leaving the aircraft, two or three times I have heard " glad you are doing this route, I won't have to use easy jet". But the best was after BA canceled a flight and NAS picked up a few passengers most of who commented that the aircraft and service were as good as BA and the price was so good they did not mind paying for the (much better) refreshments................. And all of them love the WIFI...it must be remembered that the WIFI not only connects to the Internet but also to the aircraft entertainment system. The fact of the matter is that NAS are not only stealing the top end of the LOCO market from EZY & RYR bit they are also getting a chipping away at the BA & SAS economy passenger base............ These are all people who will spend more money on board than your average chav. |
After a while on these threads we can all pick up the 'party line' each of us is going for. I would be accused, probably correctly, of backing easyJet because I work there and really like it. A and C, for whatever reason is very anti-easyJet and this is fine too. Both of us could be accused of having rose-tinted spectacles in our assessment of the situation, but at this juncture I am sticking to my view that Norwegian are doing a great job at taking on the lo-co companies but will fail in the end. Time will tell who is right and who is wrong.
Regarding BluSdUp's post, I have to say it is a little 'out there'. He claims to be a former post holder at Ryanair I think but is now clearly very anti. It has the slight air of the lift not going to the top floor and much more like listening to an Eric Cantona press conference than a rational view on the world. I frankly could not follow the logic at all, but Bjorn appears to be the man - I am sure his employees (are they not all contractors?) just love him. |
but at this juncture I am sticking to my view that Norwegian are doing a great job at taking on the lo-co companies but will fail in the end DY has been around longer than EZY, has gone about doing what it is good at slowly but surely and can ultimately retreat to a region of the world where you can only get from one end of the country to the other by air (not quite true but....). Doesn't strike me as a recipe for failure? Nobody needs to go by air in the UK....unless you're trying to get to Cornwall. :} But you'd be forgiven for thinking some of the contributors to this board were accountants not pilots. Wishing DY success in reversing the decline that FR and EZY have foisted on pilots T&C's here in the UK is surely desirable? As for the myopic "only the shareholders views count", thats one of the reasons our country suffers from chronic short-termism, whether it be the pensions industry, infrastructure spending, mortgage provision, re-balancing our economy etc etc Frankly, its pathetic. Big institutional gains are the ordinary populations loss. Channel 4 news yesterday....RBS GRG Group purposely driving small businesses into the ground. :yuk: We need to be doing whats good for ALL of us not just powerful shareholders, especially in an international world. Meanwhile, the Norwegian SWF is the largest in the world.... |
Reversing the decline? Maybe you should read up a bit on the employment tactics DY would like to introduce...
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Reversing the decline? Maybe you should read up a bit on the employment tactics DY would like to introduce... It doesn't take much to wish them (both the Unions and the airline) success from behind your keyboard does it? Sucking pilots away from Europe's largest LOCO shows a proportion of the population voting with their feet.... I'm not one for going life as if its always a fait accompli. :uhoh: |
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