Growing Pilot Shortage
 

Always the same :mad:

In certain parts of Asia corners are being cut in training.

Many Thai student pilots are being issued with English
Proficiency Level 6; Expert!

However English language skills are generally poor.

I was told that if they do not achieve this level in Bangkok, they can go to Malaysia
and obtain certification at Level 6 there.

Clearly there is some corruption involved...

Or worse flipping aircraft over, due to the additional fatigue of a second job.

Every time there is a shortage of pilots, it is quickly followed by an economic collapse- I recommend everyone liquidate immediately!

Not bad wages in 1960.


In 2017, that's absurd.

We're good here...'til we run outta Aussies. ;)

Pilot Job - SkyWest Airlines - First Officers

Not sure how many flying jobs currently pay under $20K in the US. They did within recent memory but that's no longer the case for the majority of positions I see advertised. Entry level spots don't/won't/never did pay at stellar levels.

$20,000.....not bad per month.....oh hang on :E

The financial risk of the pilot education must change. Airlines should pay for it altogether or give them a good loan and a firm job. If you screen the guys before and select the best you can pump pedestrians through the pipeline within two years that are usable FOs. No smart young guy pays some ATPL at full risk for himself without job guarantee. Just bring that back.

If it was true, then just let expats in. (And yes, sign me up on the list of people who would like to go there but can't because I don't have a green card)

Dont forget about the 1500 Hr TT Rule ;) .

For the moment, even now in Europe Ryan Air Pilots are striking.
That says something, because last decade they were nowhere near the position to do so.

Seem to remember this mantra pretty much throughout my career. Still had the usual company closures, airline closures, generally at inconvenient times like the arrival of a new child.

Be nice for the up and coming crop of young pilots though. Choice of jobs and possibly better salaries.

The problem gets worse with less and less jumbos in the air. Slightly smaller twins means more aircraft (and pilots) to take up the slack.
I say push the unions to fight better Ts and Cs while we have the Airlines by the neck ;)

I hope cadets finally get the proper sponsorship they deserve. 100k+ debt, albeit to bank of Mum and Dad, isn't right.

There's a pilot shortage when the US start offering visas to suitably qualified captains. Instead we have a deluge of Eastern European bottom feeders offering rubbish money to 737 and 320 skippers...and no shortage of willing candidates. Hull loss on the way, sponsored by EASA.

WoW, Aer Lingus, SAS Ireland, Norwegian LH and SH, DHL, TUI, EZ, Wizz, Ryanair, Virgin, Flybe?, Titan, Jet2, Level, ASL, Turkish... and others all recruiting in the last few months or ongoing. I don't know what a shortage would look like if not this.
I know a few poor souls that just got made redundant at monarch. Most of them had to turn down multiple offers there were that many.

No, thats just a sign of more capacity in the market, that already has quite an overcapacity. In fact, carriers are trying to fight an overcapacity war. That has nothing to do with a pilot shortage.

A pilot shortage means better T&Cs as airlines actually fight for pilots. That is not happening in Europe. In fact, Lufthansa mainline just signed a new CLA deal where the total T&Cs shrink by up to 15% for the next 5 years and that completely gives up their scope clause.

Yes, having been made redundant, well I’m actually still employed, just without a salary and therefore living of benefits, i do have quite a few offers. Those at home are insanely bad, with the exception of easyjet, and on first glance, ryanair. Financially interesting offers are without an exception in Asia, the US is after all a closed market (as is the UK currently for those with a german medical).

Lol that’s what I am thinking.
It does seem to be more of a ‘real’ shortage than the last two ‘pilot shortages’ I have witnessed though.
Is it possible that Europe is going to be the last to feel it because they are practiced in putting 250hr pilots in the right seat of jets ? Does that mean it hits a year or two later when upgrading becomes an issue?
Just wondering why Europe seems to be the exception regarding T’s and C’s increasing.

What we have likely experienced together is a cyclical wave. This follows the business cycle. Interesting airlines have historically added capacity at exactly the wrong time, including the pilots. There are several theories and a bunch of research into why the industry tends to do that. To my mind the most plausible is that the cost of cost of capital is lowest at the peak of the cycle.

As such it 'signals' management that the weighted average cost of capital is a cyclical low, hence the greatest margins are evident. Airlines therefore could well add capacity beyond the optimum reacting to this signal.

What has governments in most western nations perplexed is the demographic element which will a far stronger signal than that of the business cycle. The retirement rates will impact tax and welfare spends, aged care provision, the stock market and everything else as those boomers retiring become less of an accumulator and draw down on savings to fund retirement. The suppression of interest rates has feedback loops here also, as the retiree has interest on funds invested at historical lows. It is also likely that those financial planners/advisors who built their retirement plan used assumptions of 6.5-7%

Structural shortages are evident in many industries not just aviation, primarily where barriers to entry (money,time and even acumen) allow the demographic rate of retirements accelerating without a commensurate replacement rate.

There are airlines recognising the real problem this could generate for their business continuity.

I think what a lot of people are missing here is that the amount of people wanting to fly is only going to increase and therefore the amount of a/c and pilots will have to increase.

However, in the long run I don’t think this will help pilots. I think when you couple the cost of aircrew to the airlines and the length of time it takes to train pilots; airlines will probably push quicker toward fully unmanned a/c thus removing the need for pilots.

I'm not convinced that the amount of people wanting to fly commercially will increase. I think the idea of it being a glamorous lifestyle with high salaries for not doing very much has been well and truly crushed. The youth of today will surely have realised that there are far more rewarding and well-paid careers out there.

I think he means the amount of passengers wanting to fly not pilots....

And why would modern yoof want to be pilots when you can make £12m in a year as a YouTuber playing video games and sharing tips..?

They’ll never be a shortage of 200 hrs guys unfortunately, I don’t think

When Singapore Airlines starts recruiting DEFO's then you know it's a real pilot shortage. They haven't done this since the mid 1990's.

Pilots

Ah yes Meester, I see that now.

cross posted from the Pilot Shortage thread in Australia and NZ forum, from the only remaining broadsheet in the country, The Australian page 1, so this is getting national coverage.

pay offer looks pretty pants though mindful of Singers living costs.

FYI Ryanair and EasyJet are in the top 5 largest airlines in Europe and have had great increase in Ts and Cs this year - take home pay mainly. I understand Jet2 has just been given some very nice increases in pay and Monarch before they got canned.
Just depends what you interpret as better Ts and Cs.

I don't know details of the Lufthansa reduction. If its just based on reducing their pension to Contribution instead of Benefit, that happens to all career airlines (Aer Lingus, Alitalia, BA and TUI) because the Benefit pension model is unsustainable. Personally, I do not count that as reduction in terms indicative of pilot supply.

My opinion - It hasn't been so easy to get a jet job in Europe since before the Americans gave multiple mortgages to strippers and Brown sold the Gold in a trough. :}

@hargreaves99: Nope there IS a shortage of WELL TRAINED 200 hour CPL/IR holders able to operate to AIRLINE STANDARDS... That is the big issue, don't get confused by the screamers with 200 hours and that is it..

There is and always will be 200 hour girls and boys that never should have been trained or who should have smelled the coffee themselves before starting training and a fair number of them make a lot of noise but I have seen too many 200 hour guys and girls during gradings whom I would not trust to handle a job in a burger joint let alone a multi million pound aircraft.

Who is to blame for that? Lack of proper selection by FTO's, lack of proper airline programs, bank of mum and dad too eager to get his or her career of the ground (pun intended).. A lot.. But I can tell you: a well trained 200 hour guy or girl will get a job in a heartbeat in the current market.

This statement will piss of a number of guys and girls because they don't have a job "while I have all the papers so I am as good as any" but the lack of preparation for their first job of a lot of these new colleagues is shocking...:mad: There is plenty of good programs out there to brush them up but they expect to be aviation finest from day one and be treated like that...

So STOP saying that there is 1000s 200hours without a job: they are NOT and the 100s that are left all have a reason why they don't have one... :rolleyes:

RANT OVER

Because it is cheaper.

A lot of companies, most (!) companies, in Europe have the problem that they are not running a healthy business, with proper margins, that allows them to increase pay and other benefits for their staff. If they were to offer decent terms and conditions (pay, holidays, pension, proper lifestyle rosters and not where goal is max FTL etc) they would go bust immediately. This is one big reason why we are not seeing improvements in general T&Cs. Another one is attitude. There is a general attitude in Europe that pilots and cabin crew are already overpaid and many companies would rather slow down or cancel expansion plans completely than increasing T&Cs.

Companies like EasyJet, BA, AF, LH, Virgin etc will always get enough people as they at least have the financial ability to increase T&Cs as and when necessary to stressat enough people.

If we get to a point where Small Planet and the other bottom feeders are really hurting and they start scaling back or going bust, the downward push on T&Cs in the “better” companies will start again.

Europe is toast while the EU and Euro exist....always will be. The only continent on earth still deep in the global financial crisis.

Rest of the world moved on years ago. When companies can still advertise for 500 hours on type, reject turbo prop guys with 1000's of hours, reject jet pilots for jobs because they dont have THAT particular jet rating even though they may have 1000's of jet hours then you know things are bad.

Try bonding a guy in the US or asking for 500 hours on type. You will be bankrupt before you know it.

Europe is light years behind when it comes to providing a top performing aviation industry!

That's a stretch in logic IMHO......

Take just the UK case > galloping house price inflation > remortgaging/bank of Mum and Dad/ (i.e. easyish Money)/ regulators benefitting from a light touch/ Unions not able or willing to impose a limit on supply of cheap pilots (cf. the UK's BMA) / legislators aware that doing anything to regulate the providers of cheap fares will be seen badly by the voters............

But if you want to blame the EU and the Euro then fill your boots...

We live in a world where the people in the middle are being squeezed more than ever. It’s the same in every industry in every western country. The people at the top of society are getting richer and more powerful everyday, the minorities at the bottom of society are getting more and more for less and less contribution. The middle class, which pilots are part of, are the suckers bank rolling it all through harder work for less money, combined with higher cost or living and taxes. IMHO, it’s a waste of time voting for policiticians these days as they are all more of the same.

In summary, this is why I think there is so much downward pressure on salaries and wages these days.

As things stand, there will be a continued reduction of new pilots training as the business case for aviation as a career is has become untenable. Cost out way the benefits and the quality of life of the work life balance isn’t there. Earn better elsewhere and have a more stable home life. At to this the spectre of unmanned aircraft in the future(don’t see it myself but airbus and Boeing do)then what’s the point.
Bosses in aviation seem to be some of the least friendly to work for as well.

That’s why your seeing companies like Easyjet recruiting DECs when the fanboys said it would never happen.

Thats all good and well pointing that out but still does not get away from the fact that the EU is bankrupt and it is because of the Euro.

This has caused mass unemployment, lack of investment in most industries, collapse of wages due to cheap labour and too much labour for the positions available.

The UK is not part of the Euro which is why it actually has a functioning economy. In saying that they still advertise for 500 hours on type, reject qualified turbo prop drivers for jet jobs and pay a pittance of a wage.

Common denominator is the EU, it has stifled growth, introduced far too much cheap labour and mainland Europe is literally bankrupt.

You can argue semantics all you like but facts are fact and the European continent is the worst performing continent on the planet and that is down to the Euro and EU beaucracy coming out of Brussels.

Introducing the 1500 hour rule like the US has would ensure qualified applicants with the right time regardless of type ratings would be getting jobs on jets in airlines whether they were turbo prop, jet or piston pilots as long as they ad all the IFR, Multi and flight hour requirements.:ok:

Just in the vain of festive spirit and trying to reduce the 'humbug and depression' of the discussion; I wonder about the contradiction in using 'growing' & 'shortage' in the same sentence. Are we talking about about increasing the number of short pilots; the attempt to counter the number of short pilots; wanting to increase the lack of pilots;
or is there some other query floating around out there?
Ho ho ho. To all those looking for a job, make sure it doesn't bring tears later on. Do not enter with eyes wide shut.

That’s exactly what most CEOs in Europe, and the USA for that matter, want and they’ll wax whatever carrot they have to until they get more. In fact, I’m sure it won’t be long until Filipino/Indian/whatever (who work for £2000/mth or less) pilots etc flood the EU market and drive T&Cs down even further.

The problem is that it’s rapidly becoming the case that the only way to get that pay / lifestyle at (for example) Easyjet is to start with CTC and that 100,000 debt. Yes it works out in the end, unless your company goes bust under you, or you have a medical issue, or any one of a dozen other things outside your Control that can derail your career.

And what about if you can’t get into CTC, what then? Tough :mad: , you’re going to be flogging that turboprop for the rest of your career. Or perhaps you might uproot your family and move to china? They’ll love that...

The unions have been asleep at the wheel for far too long in my opinion, at least for the last 20 years, as SSTR, CTC etc have gained hold. As another poster mentioned, you only have to look across the pond to see what can be achieved. Sadly I feel it may be too late for us in the UK.

And your attitude hatgreaves is exactly why thing keep going downhill.

I wait patiently for the day when no one “ wants “ to be a pilot anymore, having thought that 130k euros is a gamble too far. Maybe then the bottom line gets better.

Unfortunately with social media and the like , it seems a lot want to become pilots to exercise some electronic narcissism ( or self abuse ) on you tube and other outlets.

HEEEE HAWWWW! :ugh:

Loathe as I am to be seen as an apologist for CTC, the answer is the vast majority (if we're talking about those on the integrated/MPL/tagged courses).