to be honest I would prefer to be in employment at a heavy financial cost than to be redundant in this climate .
lots of rumours spreading about reduction in workforce , had a rather sobering update from the CEO yesterday which had a few hints that backed up the rumours .

Virgin has around 1000 pilots so I reckon 200ish will go , guess that’s the problem being a small fish in a big pond .......
feeling regret is a large understatement

Morning bex

Drifting off topic but since we are into compare v contrast how UK carriers will handle this..

Given "previous" I think your scenario is exactly how it will be played play out at BA, the worry is (IMHO) how long the appetite to spread the pain around will last, especially when you consider that it does look like some of BA's airframes are going to be on the ground for a very long time...if not longer..:uhoh:.

Apologies for the thread drift off Virgin.

Riskybis - Good Luck, hope it works out OK for you.

Riskybis if it makes you feel any better I slightly disagree with Bex I think job losses at BA are inevitable at this point. The gravity of the situation facing us as an industry right now and the unknown of when and how this can “recover” I think strongly implies that, despite us not wanting to contemplate it. The whole question is by how much it can be mitigated by part time and retirements and how much the stop on recruitment this year will also help the situation. They’re (Jason Mahoney anyway) talking about being back up at 80% capacity by Christmas but I think that’s completely living in fantasyland right now. I’ve got my own thoughts and worries about the number and how it would be done but I’m not going to share them because it’s completely without any foundation at this point and would only be adding to what a stressful time it already is.

Rex.....I was trying to be positive :) but honestly I don’t see how we will keep everyone in the short term. If we do have some CR let’s just hope it can be a career break with a option to return. I have said it before and I’ll repeat myself. I’ll take some pain so we don’t see some completely screwed. I don’t think anyone can say they are safe through seniority.

Now the skill bite session, attendance was good........

Hopefully Virgin guys can come together to protect their jobs, if not future career prospects

I would happily take a sabbatical and be a HGV driver or whatever, just be nice to have something to return to in the future

You can't really regret something that you couldn't foresee.

Certainly focuses the mind somewhat for future "chasing the dream" airline package. Cargo and Air Ambulance looks pretty safe right now....despite the perceived lack of glamour.

Have faith RB

no one has mentioned the 20% everyone seems to be going on about! Yes the will be job losses unfortunately BUT there are a lot of people retiring, Managed exit, part time and a workforce pay cut will see a good few jobs saved! It’s a horrible time! But try to stay positive.

If the axe does fall on you or me I’ll be taking, if possible the unpaid leave option (they’ve done this in the past)

Good luck to all!

20% certainly seems to be a number thrown around a lot at the moment, seemingly with no foundation. Someone in BA mentioned 80% capacity by Christmas - this does not automatically mean they're about to chop 20% of the airline. What about after that?

It's difficult not to chastise oneself over decisions made that in retrospect now look like the wrong ones. I dare say I'd have been considerably more secure at my previous airline than where I now sit on the MSL at BA. You make the best decision you can based on all the information you have available at the time. Had you turned down a move based on fear of a global pandemic threatening jobs, you'd have been branded insane.

Ultimately no-one knows how this will ride out. If there's a vaccine developed in the timescale some reports seem to suggest, it may not be as long as some of the pessimists would have you believe.

As has been mentioned I expect lots of options are being looked at, in every airline, to protect as many jobs as possible. I sincerely hope that pilots at the top of seniority lists, with no mortgage and big pension pots, are having a long hard look in the mirror right now.

Virgin Atlantic told to resubmit bailout bid by ‘unimpressed’ UK Treasury

https://www.ft.com/content/e2636703-...8-b944e032db1f

tell me something I don’t know :}

Again I’d be taking that with a pinch of salt! Our CEO said just last night that the talks with the Government are progressing! If I have learnt anything the past few weeks is not to believe anything written in the paper or social media!
Virgin are dealing with Morgan Stanley to sort out funding and until I hear otherwise the above is compete nonsense.

And especially after that tosspot reporter Jim pickards question to the health secretary 🙄 last week regarding Virgins bailout prospects, id hazard a guess in pointing out that “The times” has some sort of agenda with Virgin!

Of course with some papers but not the FT. Let's face it Virgin Atlantic are trying to get a leg up to keep in business because they don't have the cash in the bank like IAG and wizzair do. They'll only get the taxpayer to cough up (again as they're already avialing of the 80% of wages help) if they take more serious measures to stave off going out of business. There's quite a few on here hoping it ain't so bad probably because they work there which is totally understandable but I'm afraid this virus pandemic is really bad, I think deep down they know that though. We need to see the owners do more, a lot more before taxpayers money gets used to prop up an airline which has been making significant losses in recent years. Remember FlyBe..?

Last Paragraph

This is when you’ll see lots of very selfish individuals both in the cabin and flight deck.

I not sure why there's need for expressions that might be considered as pejorative, such as long hard look and mirrors are required, I know for certain that some senior people, regardless of pension pot size, are sizing up options, especially given the age related risks associated with this disease and the impossibility of social distancing in the workplace.. P them of too much and they might just cling on regardless.

However I fear/caution that binning all the senior guys might not be a panacea in the current situation at e.g. BA where it looks like it wants to keep certain fleets running but might possibly be happy to consign other fleets to history....think they are going to indulge in fleet moves for all pilots?

Correct Wiggy. Those thinking that BA (and this could apply to any airline with multiple fleets and bases) will just chop the bottom (or top) X% and then happily pay the bill to retrain those left are living in cloud cuckoo land. That’s before you even get into the - at very least - questionable legality of making someone redundant and then retraining someone else to take their role. That’s why no one can feel safe from this process if/when it happens.

rex absolutely hits the nail on the head - the inability of some people I’ve spoken to to understand this is quite staggering

LIFO is illegal... pure and simple! It’s age discrimination as Airlines know. 120 of us got kicked out of Thomson under LIFO with a few bells and whistles added on... Which alluded to pure LIFO.

The only option to challenge it is a strike.... Good luck to any workforce who considers a move like that during these uncertain times. Unfortunately meritocracy is the future and tough times like this will only drive home this agenda.

https://www.gov.uk/redundancy-your-r...for-redundancy

UK Gov says last in first out is acceptable.

That is true, LIFO in and of itself is not illegal as criteria for selection. However “as the sole measure of selection it’s legally unsafe”. Quoted direct but not verbatim from the lawyers sorting out the Flybe mess in 2013.

I think some here are missing the point.

LIFO may well be acceptable, but in BA's case consider:

1. Is it advisable to make redundant, and replace, a cheap junior A320 FO with a senior A380/747 FO (who's role has become redundant)?

2. Will BA want to incur the cost of re-training a senior B747/A380 FO into the position of an already trained a ready to go cheap junior A320 FO. Why would they want to incur ANY cost when they're haemorrhaging cash?

3. As this situation is such an unknown, will BA want to get rid of a load of cheap junior, ready to go (other than a recency sim) A320 FO's and have a pool of 747/A380 senior FO's waiting round to be go through a 4-6 week training course with aircraft unnecessarily sitting on the ground?

I mention A320 above because that's where most of the junior guys start. BA is a corporate animal. I'm sure it wouldn't bat an eye at having to make some brutal decisions over the coming months. People say BA have never made pilot redundancies - problem is, this is a very different BA. As much as this situation is hurting BA I'm also sure they're looking at ways to manipulate it to their advantage.

I sincerely hope BA keeps everybody employed but there are difficult days coming.

Good luck to you Virgins too 🤞

Present BA MSL shows numbers to 4469 and MPE,manpower equivalent heads approx 4000
Planned recruitment 2020 was 300, 2021 250.
Part offered to All now.
natural wastage 1%
Retirements and comorbity considerations some more
Unpaid leave possible as has been done before in 80s
380 Pilots will most likely transfer to 350,4 more deliveries till year end total 9
744 pilots will have to sit it out until course available.
Mckinsey report this weak forecasting return to previous levels in LH will take six Quarters

Its not quite that black and white. Note the 'Unfair Selection' section. I'd imagine seniority at BA / Virgin is so highly correlated with age that it could be argued to be the same thing.

I also agree with the above posters. Even if it was legal, I see no business case for the company to use LIFO and the unions have no power at this time to intervene.

I really do not think that compulsory redundancy will be required at BA and don't understand why some people keep raising it, particularly on a Virgin thread.

BA's redundancy policy has been updated over the years, the last time in 2015, 9 years after age discrimination legislation came into force. Seniority rules everything at BA, it is not dependent upon age, there are relatively young senior LH P1s and old junior P2s. Joining BA is always a very long term bet. MOA K.11 clearly specifies LIFO as the general principle to be applied if redundancies are required.

I personally believe that an effective treatment for the virus will be found soon. A vaccine may be far away, but much improved treatment needn't be. Confidence will be restored if people know the likelihood of passing away from the virus is very very small.

Let’s put a lid on this. It will only escalate to an argument with no benefit. BA will do as it sees fit. Virgin will do the same. Extraordinary times will mean the past is a unreliable reference for the present. Let’s wait and see, once we know more hopefully we can come together to look out for each other.

Let’s be honest here. Generally Speaking, the pilots most vociferously against LIFO are the very ones who would benefit the most if it were not applied. Typically they make up the bottom 20-30% of the pilot work force.

And those for it are on the wrong (usually older so should have known better) fleet.

You mean the majority of pilots?

exactly, also making people redundant from the top costs much more than someone with less time in the company. Less than 2 years and they dont have to pay redundancy.
good luck to all.

Mr Kipling are you sure about that? Have you seen the pitiful state of a statutory redundancy payment in the U.K. recently? In the greater scheme of things it’s peanuts. The average BA PP24 LH Captain would be looking at a rough maximum of £16K as a payout. Not even including the company pension payment BA will have broken even on that redundancy payment in less than a month of payroll reduction. There’s huge savings to be made on an ongoing basis from chopping the most senior first. Not saying that’s going to happen just pointing out that saying it’s more expensive to sling out the most senior pilots is nonsense.

(I’m neither arguing for or against LIFO. If you were talking about a 20% reduction in VS or BA, I‘d actually probably be just about safe if it were applied. However I’m a realist and I know that a company in financial distress will do exactly what suits them and is the safest legally (ie slinging out those caught up in the process of closing a base or chopping a fleet) not abiding by gentlemen’s agreements).

There's no way BA will continue with the current pilot headcount as it stands. They'll be doing the numbers already and planning on a significantly smaller airline post this crisis than at the start of this year which means jobs lost sadly. Yes there'll be guys who go part-time, take VUL and early retirement but it won't be enough for the scale of this economic crisis. Anyhow, this is a Virgin Atlantic thread not BA.

I hear you Rex and I haven't looked at the figures, however, 16k is still more than 0 isnt it. I presume the bottom 20% aren't ready to do the jobs of the top 20% either?

LIFO on its own apparently isn't legal, however as someone else said it is if there is a mix of ages in the bottom 20% and lets face it at all of the bigger companies where people used to want to work they have a good spread of ages.

LIFO in BA isn’t a “gentleman’s agreement”. It’s written in the MOA. (k.11.). And yes, it was updated as recently as 2015.

And what do you think we’re going to be able to do about it if BA decide it will cost them too much money, 3Greens? Go on strike?

Anyway this has drifted far from VS so I apologise. My general point though which will apply to Virgin too is that - in the current climate - if anyone seriously thinks an airline is going to play nice and uphold agreements and start retraining pilots at massive cost whilst their financial house is burning down around them then I’d like some of what they’re smoking, especially as lockdown is seemingly going on forever.

Would this be the MOA that had a section of it suspended just a month or so ago when it didnt suit?

Exactly my thoughts. They'll do as they wish - a balance sheet with the strength of IAG let's hope CR is not reqd.

the very same one that was suspended in full agreement with BALPA, and as I’m sure you’re aware. It was just a small subsection of schedule F that is suspended. That being, to allow fleets in surplus to have a supplementary bid processed before PRIAM. But I’m sure you knew that..
I’m fact i understand as I was on the online meeting today that BA are very much inside with BALPA on all of this.
I think there will be some tough decisions ahead, but as it stands, I don’t see CR being on the cards at BA yet. I think we can find ways to keep everyone employed until it picks up again, which it will.
the MOA is our contract with our employer and without agreement, BA need to follow the law and any changes either agreed, or if it wishes to serve notice on any part it has to make a legal case and serve 90 days notice. There is legal precedent within our airline from 2008 when BA filed the HR1 for 140 MPE. I understand, from the chair of the BACC at the time, it was their intention to use qualified LIFO.
As a group we took some pain back then, and I’m sure we can do again.

Thanks for the additional info 3G. Interesting.

Nothing would suprise me at the moment, but I do hope you're correct.

the other point to consider is that anyone above about the age of 55 could be categorised as an at risk group. It may well be the best plan to send the over 55/60s off to furlough for a while whilst this blows through - there may even need to be temporary command upgrades required to cope. Looks like community immunity is the only way out of this pickle with no vaccine in sight. After Thalidomide the medical research profession will refuse to cut standards, unless it’s for
life saving treatment. That means that unless there is a controlled release put in place for this, the global economy won’t survive. The media coverage preparing populations for this has already started.