30% of US pilots in 'majors' to retire by 2016

[Right Engine]

From several reliable sources I have recently heard that American Airlines, Delta, Continental and USAir are in the midst of a very large bulge of retirements. A bulge that, combined with some drastic changes to the new entrant requirements to fly in the US commercially, is putting great stresses on Airlines ability to cover their network operations.

I am a UK based pilot, and have no intention of flying for (let alone being granted the visa for) a US airline but the ramifications of large swathes of American 'journeymen' returning from the far/middle east to their place of birth would have serious repercussions for the 'market' for pilots globally.

Would any of you be prepared to put a little more substance to these rumours? I've had 20 years in this game, and so far I've yet to see any significant pilot shortage, but it would be nice to know that a significant reduction of experience might just create an inertia towards improving the declining wages and T's and C's of our role?

[EMB-145LR]

It's a lot more than 30%, but over a longer time period than the next three years. Here's a full breakdown of the retirement numbers for the major carriers over here.

[A340rider]

I first hear this in 2004 that "shortly" the US/RAF pilots ex Vietnam will retire soon....2016 now is it?? I think its rubish..10s of thousand of pilots have come of the factory line since..supply is more than demand, always will be..

[EMB-145LR]

I first hear this in 2004 that "shortly" the US/RAF pilots ex Vietnam will retire soon....2016 now is it?? I think its rubish..10s of thousand of pilots have come of the factory line since..supply is more than demand, always will be..

While I agree that we should remain sceptical, the reason that the shortage never happened shortly after 2004 is that the pilot retirement age in the US was raised from 60 to 65 in 2007, adding an extra five years to the careers of the vast majority of the ex-USAF pilots in the airlines.

At my airline we are already struggling to fill new hire classes. The same is true at all of the regional airlines in the USA.

That being said, there will never be a shortage at the majors, just at the regionals. With the new 1,500 hour requirement for First Officers and the new rest rules being introduced in January that require 5-10% extra staffing, hiring will be buoyant.

We will see the regional fleets shrink, but the size of aircraft increase. This is already happening with CRJ-200s and ERJ-145s being replaced on a 2 for 1 basis by CRJ-900s and EMB-175s. That will help to stem some of the hiring issues, but I would say things are looking very good for those lucky enough to be in the airlines right now. For new entrants, I think they will be on the back end of the wave and will probably end up at a regional for a decent stretch.

[A340rider]

Good points amigo All sounds feasible, good post

[LLuCCiFeR]

I first hear this in 2004 that "shortly" the US/RAF pilots ex Vietnam will retire soon....2016 now is it?? I think its rubish..10s of thousand of pilots have come of the factory line since..supply is more than demand, always will be..

I started flying in the mid 1990's and back then (the pre-internet days) it was difficult to verify and check statements about "massive retirement waves," but I'm completely flabbergasted that people keep on falling for the same swindle time after time in 2013!

supply is more than demand, always will be..

I guess that's the whole point of those rumours of "massive retirements" that keep on popping up: to keep the suckers buying into the pyramid scheme of flight training, P2F and P4T!

[MCDU2]

How many are still furloughed to potentially fill the void?

[The Dominican]

Pilots have very short memories......!

People talk about retirements as if it was a new thing in aviation, attrition due to retirement has been going on since this career is up and running, pilots forget that this is a cyclical business and most guys are talking about this upswing as if it was unprecedented in the business, they forget that the upswing of the 90's and the upswing of the 20's were also referred too as "unprecedented" how long will this upswing last is the million dollar question but lasting for the foreseeable furture as many are predicting is naive in itself.

[EMB-145LR]

How many are still furloughed to potentially fill the void?

United have just recalled the last of their furloughed pilots. American, US Airways and Delta have none on furlough.

[Teldorserious]

Everyone needs to wake up from the notion that the Airlines will be so desperate for pilots that they will hire qualified professionals.

As in any business, as in the airlines, when they didn't want to pay the price for qualifications, they went to the Feds and got approval for Ab initio, Affirmitive action recalibration of pilot skills, ect.

We want to believe that a mass exodus of pilots will make them so desperate for pilots they will hire YOU but the reality is that they will hire who they want, gaming the system or evironment variable to their advantage. Either you fit their criteria or not. If you want a job at the airline you have to morph to a certain morally pliable robotic team player that tells them what they want to hear and be willing to follow an incompetent captain into the side of a hill for an airplane seat. Simple as that. No matter what the retirement schedule or economy, someone somewhere will need a marshmellow to put the gear up as directed for 15 years of their life until such time they are allowed to move into the left seat to touch the autopilot button and tell the other guy to put the gear up.

[ATPMBA]

NO SHORTAGE

So by 2016 there will be 4,000 retirements.

Spirit Airlines which demands 4,000 FW TT has 4,000 applications on file.
Alaska and JetBlue has about 3,000 apps on file.
Southwest just started accepting apps but I do not have a count yet.

US Regional airlines have about 15,000 pilots on staff all with ATP and 1,500TT + hours. They will flow into those 4,000 positions.


From my research there is a pool of about 5,000 qualified pilots actively seeking employment at major US airlines.

There is a shortage of Regional pilots. I got 3 offers to interview but the pay is way low.

[LLuCCiFeR]

The only pilot shortage airlines have is a shortage of gullible pilots who will work more hours for less money, and who will pay for their own training, type rating and line training.

Other than that, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF PILOTS!

By spreading the same lies year after year, decade after decade, airlines hope to inflate the supply of pilots in order to force down T&C's.

So far they have been getting away with it, just look at what's going on in Europe (easyJet, Ryanair, Air Berlin, Wizzair etc) and over in Asia (Air Asia, Lion Air, Air Hong Kong, Hong Kong Airlines, Scoot, Jetstar etc).

[No RYR for me]

Spirit Airlines which demands 4,000 FW TT has 4,000 applications on file.
Alaska and JetBlue has about 3,000 apps on file.
Southwest just started accepting apps but I do not have a count yet.

And those are not the same pilots they have on file as most pilots apply to all airlines? And when the pilots find a job they will let the other airlines know that their application is no longer valid?

I was there with the last hiring boom and the interesting thing is that once the airlines start calling they will be in for a big surprise. The regionals will be crying for staff by years end because of the stupid 1500 hour rule and the fact that more than 50% of the few people training in the US will go back to India, China, etc....

[donpizmeov2]

The 1500 hours is not stupid and should be implemented in the JAR EASA and the rest of the civilized aviation world!

[No RYR for me]

OK so the system of training somebody on the aircraft they will be flying for their profession using up to date simulator equipment and up to date training methods should be stopped and be replaced by a system suggested by politicians who have no clue? Flying useless hours on a old outdated equipment to train you for a totally different job?