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AF 447 Thread No. 6

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AF 447 Thread No. 6

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Old 9th Oct 2011, 17:21
  #1181 (permalink)  
 
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Yes I do, but not selectively.

The BEA probably knew that there would be people who would apply their own selected meaning to anything the BEA would publish. So they also published this.

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Old 9th Oct 2011, 17:36
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BEA: "....and the pilot applied NOSE DOWN INPUTS and alternately left and right roll inputs..."

Did they get it wrong?
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 17:40
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The graph shows F/O Pitch commands. The PILOT FLYING was flying from CAPTAIN's seat?

I'll leave it to you to sort why the comments don't jive with the graph. For now.

Know that vertical speed does not represent altitude, or "CLIMB"
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 17:46
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Originally Posted by CONF iture
What bothers me is that something was wrong in that aircraft before anything happened. The crew had to deal with something bizarre ... and the BEA has not said a single word about it.

Could just as easily be a glitch in the FDR data though - which can have issues with sampling sometimes and after all had spent the best part of three years on the bottom of the ocean. The regularity of the missing data samples suggests a read/write failure rather than the value actually being read.

Even so, I'm sure I remember seeing Airbus pilots post that they don't tend to use V/S select all that often, and in cruise there'd be no reason to use it. If it's not referred to in the final report, write to the BEA and ask for it - it can't hurt.
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 17:50
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At this point in the flight, DOZY, the a/c is in autopilot.
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 18:23
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Originally Posted by Lyman etc...
The PILOT FLYING was flying from CAPTAIN's seat?
After all this you still haven't figured out who was PF? Not that it is surprising.

Originally Posted by Lyman etc...
I'll leave it to you to sort why the comments don't jive with the graph.
Only in your mind. How to sort that I have no idea.

Originally Posted by Lyman etc...
Know that vertical speed does not represent altitude, or "CLIMB"
The graphs are there for all to see. Perhaps you should start having a look so we can be free for you home baked "facts".
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 18:28
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The graph and comments are self evident, and conflict.
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 18:57
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@KBPsen

Perhaps you'd like to explain the difference between SELECTED and MANAGED mode on the A330's FCU - and at the same time how the use of the word "and" is equally valid for simultaneous events as it is for sequential events - in fact to imply the latter tends to require the phrase "and then".
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 19:32
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Then show where on the graph AoA ten+ is.
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 19:36
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And having given the hamsterwheel another spin, Clandestino goes off snickering down his sleeve.
Welcome back to the hamsterwheel Clandestino, did you miss your old friends?
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 20:54
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Originally posted by Lyman - post #1174

"The aircraft's Angle of Attack increased progressively beyond ten degrees...AND THE AIRCRAFT STARTED TO CLIMB..."
Please clean your monocle!

The BEA Interim Report No3 actually said,
"The airplane's pitch attitude increased progressively beyond 10 degrees and the plane started to climb."
That was in relation to the initial climb, but during the second phase the SW activated at AoA 5.9°, AOAmax was passed at 7.6°, and CLmax 'break' occurred at 9.6°.

This graphic should help.

Last edited by mm43; 9th Oct 2011 at 21:02. Reason: added graphic link
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 21:00
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 21:10
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Originally Posted by DozyWannabe
- and at the same time how the use of the word "and" is equally valid for simultaneous events as it is for sequential events - in fact to imply the latter tends to require the phrase "and then".
That such basic concepts and use of language needs explaining boggles the mind, but then I doubt it needs to be.

It is the deliberate misunderstandings and misrepresentations, selective use of data and the mixing of a sliver of fact with handfuls of fiction that needs explaining. If it is even possible.
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Old 10th Oct 2011, 01:13
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Zorin_75 and ChristiaanJ,

Beside the conspiracy theorists, anything you could bring to the subject ?
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Old 10th Oct 2011, 10:25
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Originally Posted by CONF iture
Captain my Captain how do you positively know ALT CRZ mode was engaged when the trace is nowhere to be seen ?
BEA has that habit to forget to share what could be interesting.
Ahem... BEA's interim #3, §1.11.2
No trace indeed, but unequivocally written : "Le vol est effectué sur la route prévue en modes ALT CRZ / NAV."
"The flight followed the route envisaged in modes ALT CRZ / NAV."

Originally Posted by CONF iture
Take that sunday off Clandestino and try to find someone ready to demonstrate you a bit of love, this could help to relieve this aggressiveness to us all around.
I'm perfectly happy, for myself, with Clandestino's posts. Shall I ask him to marry me?

Joking aside, I also would like to know why the selected V/S varies so much (and so regularly) before AP disconnect. I think (guess) it is a "normal" behavior but would like to have a confirmation by knowledgeable people.
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Old 10th Oct 2011, 12:20
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Originally Posted by AlphaZuluRomeo
Joking aside, I also would like to know why the selected V/S varies so much (and so regularly) before AP disconnect. I think (guess) it is a "normal" behavior but would like to have a confirmation by knowledgeable people.
This is an educated guess rather than certain knowledge, but based on what I've learned on the subject of data analysis (which is actually part of my professional remit - lest CONF think otherwise) those negative peaks are at such regular intervals that I suspect that they are unreadable values rather than reflective of the actual setting, as I said here:

http://www.pprune.org/tech-log/46062...ml#post6741729

Given that it looks like they've used Excel to generate the graphs for the interim report, I know that Excel's default graphing behaviour for unreadable values is to render them as the lowest possible value (in this case -5000).

Now, whether that value would be unreadable due to corruption of the memory chips from damage sustained, whether the memory chips were faulty in the first place, or whether there was a pre-existing fault on the FDR bus that meant that the value was incorrectly read is something I'm not qualified to speculate on.

Ultimately though, if we can make a reasonable assumption - based the BEA's statement that the flight followed the ALT CRZ/NAV mode - that the flight was indeed in that mode up to A/P disconnect, then the V/S setting should not have had any effect as, if I recall correctly, the MANAGED mode does not use V/S as a parameter.
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Old 10th Oct 2011, 21:04
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Originally Posted by CONF iture
Zorin_75 and ChristiaanJ,
Beside the conspiracy theorists, anything you could bring to the subject ?
CONF, I thought the somewhat 'odd' V/S SEL recording had already been solved, either earlier in this thread, or in one of the earlier threads.
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Old 11th Oct 2011, 00:22
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Originally Posted by Lyman
Infrequentflyer789

NO. The a/c did not respond immediately to PF's back stick, read the report. The a/c did not start upward until the PITCH UP reached ten degrees, read the report.
I have, I guess I just don't see what you see in the traces.

I have been looking at the graphs with expanded timescale - which show the time we are interested in. P29-31 of the report has useful graphs but without gridlines so it is difficult to be precise, P42 is the best for that - it doesn't have pilot input, but we know from P29 that this begins at 02:10:07.

From graph on P42 I reckon at 02:10:07 we have pitch = 2, THS -2.8, VS maybe -300. Then at 02:10:10, pitch = 4, THS -3 (started to move), and VS maybe +300 (ie. started to climb). Pitch 10 degrees is not till a bit after 02:10:16 by which time VS is already +5000.

Hence my comment that the THS seemed unavailable from a/p drop, until just prior to the STALL.
It looks to me to be moving to follow elevator trend, with a delay, a rate limit and a stop, not much more complex than that. At some point I might try and digitize the traces and try and extract the rule, but it looks right. It also matches the sim results (see P41).

It also counters the myth that he pulled the a/c up immediately, HE DID NOT. The report shows a pilot with measured pull, and interrupted, waiting for response.
Page 29 - A/P drops 02:10:05, "I have controls" at 02:10:06, stick goes back 02:10:07, 2secs delay. I don't see the stick going back to pitch neutral awaiting response either.

Further, the response tracks simulation, so the a/c was responding as PF should have expected. If we ascribe his actions to unexpected a/c response, then we are back to the question of why doesn't PF know what to expect from his a/c, are we not ? [and is it PFs fault if he's never actually flown (been allowed to fly) his a/c in cruise ? - no]

Their is NO determination of Iced Pitots. It is a guess, for all we know it may have been wind shear that bolluxed up ADRS. And that is a reason for TOGA and high Pitch, in its own right.
If there's a windshear procedure that calls for 15deg pitch and TOGA in cruise (at max alt) then I would respectfully suggest that it is a recipe for another disaster. No ?

On the pitots, I think I almost agree. There is some evidence (audio ascribed to icing), and there is the experience of all the other flights - but not totally conclusive.

The worrying thing to me is that I can't see anything that connects the PF actions (cause of stall) with pitot failure specifically, or even uAS specifically. If he climbs to arrest a (real or perceived) altitude loss, or inadverdently while focused on roll, then pitot failure is not a required cause, and fixing the pitots will not prevent a recurrence. UAS may make the recovery less likely - but speeds were actually valid again by the time they stalled, and stalling a big jet is big trouble regardless.

If the triggers for the PF climbing his a/c into a stall were only: A/P drop out, Alt Law, and turbulence (maybe), then we have a big problem, because Alt Law / A/P drop could have lots of causes, and is an expected condition at 1 in 10k flight hours (I think). That is more than a little worrying.
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Old 11th Oct 2011, 00:33
  #1199 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Turbine D
I'll stand to be corrected when you show me evidence of AB's high altitude, high Mach cruise situations, such as UAS events, which are clear and simple.
AFs procedures at least are clearly confusing since preople here can't agree what they mean even with plenty of time to read them.

But, turning it around slightly, what evidence is there that any procedure was bring used ?

The quoted (confusing) procedures I have seen all have AP & FD OFF as first actions - and this was never done (AP dropped itself, FD remained selected on).
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Old 11th Oct 2011, 02:30
  #1200 (permalink)  
 
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Hi
Infrequentflyer789

Not only does AF's procedures seem confusing, AB's procedures don't seem to me to be much clearer. Below is a briefing (2006, may have changed by 2009) as to what to do with an occurrence of UAS. The briefing was to identify new procedures as the airlines were confused with the older procedures. Of particular interest, note how UAS is highly referenced and dealt with during cruise at high altitudes and high speeds.

It's not that the crew of AF447 did everything right, it's what they may have been taught or not taught, remembered or not remembered for the situation they found themselves in.

Take a look and tell me what you think.

http://www.iag-inc.com/premium/Airbu...ableSpeeds.pdf
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