A320 / 737 Successors
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A320 / 737 Successors
Some time before the current speculation, I thought that, despite telling the world that sufficiently "transformational" technology to warrant all-new narrowbodies wouldn't be available until the early 2020s, Airbus and Boeing would have to, at the very least, do a refresh / re-engine well before then - if only because it wouldn't be environmentally acceptable to be seen just sitting on their hands for another 10+ years. Clearly, they would be hugely reluctant to mess with their cash cows - each with thousands of orders outstanding.
Airbus now seem likely to launch a GTF / LEAP X powered upgrade and Boeing were expected to follow suit. However, the talk now is that they might go all-new instead - presumably they have concluded that a re-engined 737 would not be competitive with a re-engined A320. A re-engined, sharkletted A320 would cost approx $2bn to develop and reduce DOCs by 15 - 16% with EIS 2015, whereas an all-new aircraft would cost $6 - $8bn to develop and, Boeing say, reduce DOCs by 15 - 20% with an EIS in 2018. An all new narrowbody with EIS in 2018 would, presumably, have more or less the same technology level as the C Series.
I don't understand how these numbers would stack up for Boeing - to spend so much more to develop a "conventional" aircraft with a relatively small DOC advantage over the re-engined A320 and risk being trumped by a "transformational" (UDF-powered etc) all-new Airbus less than 10 years later -seems risky to me. But, I suppose if they can't make a re-engined 737 competitive with the A320, they don't have a choice. Stuck between a rock and a hard place or am I missing something?
Airbus now seem likely to launch a GTF / LEAP X powered upgrade and Boeing were expected to follow suit. However, the talk now is that they might go all-new instead - presumably they have concluded that a re-engined 737 would not be competitive with a re-engined A320. A re-engined, sharkletted A320 would cost approx $2bn to develop and reduce DOCs by 15 - 16% with EIS 2015, whereas an all-new aircraft would cost $6 - $8bn to develop and, Boeing say, reduce DOCs by 15 - 20% with an EIS in 2018. An all new narrowbody with EIS in 2018 would, presumably, have more or less the same technology level as the C Series.
I don't understand how these numbers would stack up for Boeing - to spend so much more to develop a "conventional" aircraft with a relatively small DOC advantage over the re-engined A320 and risk being trumped by a "transformational" (UDF-powered etc) all-new Airbus less than 10 years later -seems risky to me. But, I suppose if they can't make a re-engined 737 competitive with the A320, they don't have a choice. Stuck between a rock and a hard place or am I missing something?
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I do not think either manufacturer are heavily focused on this market yet. The 787 getting a jump on the A350 has Airbus scrambeling. I would have thought Boeing would produce a 737 size aircraft with similar technology to the 787 in the future.
Also, the other factor is cost savings per seat mile, the smaller the jet the smaller the savings (profit).
Also, the other factor is cost savings per seat mile, the smaller the jet the smaller the savings (profit).
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Boeing is right now considering what it will do with the 737 and set to announce a decision this fall. Airbus seems to go with a reengined A320 family while boeing might take the way of a complete new design, after all they will have quite a lot of free engineering capacity once the 787 and 748 are through certification, unlike airbus who will be tied up for some time with the A350 and A400 projects.
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The most likely re-engining path for either aircraft would involve turbines with larger fans. The A320 can accommodate such an engine change while the 737 is already at its limits regarding fan diameter. This fact alone will drive Boeing's decision towards a clean sheet design.
Airbus will be limited by investment capital and engineering resources in the coming decade. They are no doubt cognizant of the competition's highly successful NG program derived from a then-30 year old design. That age milestone is fast approaching for their own A320 and a more efficient engine may be the key to the program's continued success.
Competition from Embraer and Bombardier on the lower end will no doubt be a critical motivating factor for both Airbus and Boeing to get moving forward soon.
Airbus will be limited by investment capital and engineering resources in the coming decade. They are no doubt cognizant of the competition's highly successful NG program derived from a then-30 year old design. That age milestone is fast approaching for their own A320 and a more efficient engine may be the key to the program's continued success.
Competition from Embraer and Bombardier on the lower end will no doubt be a critical motivating factor for both Airbus and Boeing to get moving forward soon.
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I noticed on Embraers web site they have/are developing a new 195sx with upto 135 seats , and they state its aimed as a direct replacement for 737 classic/A319 aircraft. I wonder how popular this option could be with such a large worldwide potential market.
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I noticed on Embraers web site they have/are developing a new 195sx with upto 135 seats , and they state its aimed as a direct replacement for 737 classic/A319 aircraft. I wonder how popular this option could be with such a large worldwide potential market.
They also seem well poised after all the sales of 170/190's to emerge into this market. Embraer may have quite an oppertunity here.
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I thought that Embraer shelved the stretched 195 due to lack of interest and concerns over its range.
The A320 NEO's non-retrofitable advances will not be enough to fend off Boeing once the 787 is out of the door. I reckon that Boeing have track position to pit, put on new tires and emerge well in the lead.
My unsubstantiated and circumstantial knowledge suggests that the 737s problem has never been one of efficiency, but upfront costs. In many ways the NG is better and more efficient performer than the A320 series, but with the current trend of relatively frequent fleet renewal it doesn't look so good.
I wonder if they'll soon be selling heavily discounted 737s on the back of commitment for it's replacement.
The A320 NEO's non-retrofitable advances will not be enough to fend off Boeing once the 787 is out of the door. I reckon that Boeing have track position to pit, put on new tires and emerge well in the lead.
My unsubstantiated and circumstantial knowledge suggests that the 737s problem has never been one of efficiency, but upfront costs. In many ways the NG is better and more efficient performer than the A320 series, but with the current trend of relatively frequent fleet renewal it doesn't look so good.
I wonder if they'll soon be selling heavily discounted 737s on the back of commitment for it's replacement.
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I wonder if they'll soon be selling heavily discounted 737s on the back of commitment for it's replacement.
