AF 447 Search to resume
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VicMel
I think it is unlikely a pitot tube caused the avalanche of ACARS, as you also propose. Of more interest to me is the operation of the a/c prior to the AP disconnect that occurred within the parameters of control limits the AP was programmed with. These limits are not narrow, the Pitch allowables are I believe 24 degrees (15 U and 9 D). The Roll limits are 45 degrees per side, for a total excursion of 90 degrees. Is it possible that the crew were satisfied with a rough ride that took the a/c to its limits of "comfort"? We hear from time to time of the explicit Faith put into this a/c by its pilots, and a desire to fly to the AP disconnect as a conscious decision is certainly plausible. If at this time, Law regression and bunk weather forced an immediate decision on the part of this crew to NOT re-engage AP, upset may have already occurred, and as has been explained so many times, conditions of flight were marginal perhaps in ALL respects, and control may not have been recaptured. To me, it is difficult to imagine an orderly march of messages in transmitted messages of ACARS, the sheer number alone suggests that the system had been totally overwhelmed v/v sequencing prior to AP drop. If upset had occurred in this way, the failure of three pitots virtually simultaneously suggests an Unusual attitude or two were involved in the bunk AS reads. imo.
bear
I think it is unlikely a pitot tube caused the avalanche of ACARS, as you also propose. Of more interest to me is the operation of the a/c prior to the AP disconnect that occurred within the parameters of control limits the AP was programmed with. These limits are not narrow, the Pitch allowables are I believe 24 degrees (15 U and 9 D). The Roll limits are 45 degrees per side, for a total excursion of 90 degrees. Is it possible that the crew were satisfied with a rough ride that took the a/c to its limits of "comfort"? We hear from time to time of the explicit Faith put into this a/c by its pilots, and a desire to fly to the AP disconnect as a conscious decision is certainly plausible. If at this time, Law regression and bunk weather forced an immediate decision on the part of this crew to NOT re-engage AP, upset may have already occurred, and as has been explained so many times, conditions of flight were marginal perhaps in ALL respects, and control may not have been recaptured. To me, it is difficult to imagine an orderly march of messages in transmitted messages of ACARS, the sheer number alone suggests that the system had been totally overwhelmed v/v sequencing prior to AP drop. If upset had occurred in this way, the failure of three pitots virtually simultaneously suggests an Unusual attitude or two were involved in the bunk AS reads. imo.
bear
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,315
Likes: 10
From: France
VicMel,
I'm afraid you're barking up the wrong tree...
Events with two out of three pitots icing up synchronously, with the A/P "believing" the wrong data, and similar strings of fault messages, have already happened.
They didn't lead to a crash, because the pilots understood the problem in time, and used "pitch and power" to "fly out of it"... which is why we have the full sequence of fault messages from the FDR, rather than a fragmentary sequence of ACARS messages.
The very recent Airbus memo about not re-engaging the A/P too soon after a "loss of speed data" event also clearly points to their thoughts about the subject.... bearing in mind that they may not know a lot more about what actually happened to AF447, but that they know a lot more than we do about how the systems and aircraft would behave in similar circumstances.
I'm afraid you're barking up the wrong tree...
Events with two out of three pitots icing up synchronously, with the A/P "believing" the wrong data, and similar strings of fault messages, have already happened.
They didn't lead to a crash, because the pilots understood the problem in time, and used "pitch and power" to "fly out of it"... which is why we have the full sequence of fault messages from the FDR, rather than a fragmentary sequence of ACARS messages.
The very recent Airbus memo about not re-engaging the A/P too soon after a "loss of speed data" event also clearly points to their thoughts about the subject.... bearing in mind that they may not know a lot more about what actually happened to AF447, but that they know a lot more than we do about how the systems and aircraft would behave in similar circumstances.
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,330
Likes: 0
From: NNW of Antipodes
ICAO High Level Safety Conference (2010)
Following the ICAO 2010 High Level Safety Conference, the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC/MAK) comprising many of the independent republics of the former Soviet Union, has presented a brief report on their assessment of real-time data transmission by aircraft over oceanic FIRs, in low density traffic regions and outside inhabited areas.
The ICAO Flight Recorder Working Group is already engaged in assessing the viability of alternative means of recovering flight data, and the ICAO has accepted the IAC/MAK paper as part of this investigation.
The paper, which has been translated by the IAC/MAK into English can be viewed at:-
IAC Flight Data Paper
References within the paper are made to the AF447 situation, and it would seem probable that the recent reference by Le Figaro to the Russian Army being involved in discussions with the BEA, could more correctly be described as Interstate Aviation Committee instigated.
The ICAO Flight Recorder Working Group is already engaged in assessing the viability of alternative means of recovering flight data, and the ICAO has accepted the IAC/MAK paper as part of this investigation.
The paper, which has been translated by the IAC/MAK into English can be viewed at:-
IAC Flight Data Paper
References within the paper are made to the AF447 situation, and it would seem probable that the recent reference by Le Figaro to the Russian Army being involved in discussions with the BEA, could more correctly be described as Interstate Aviation Committee instigated.
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 86
Likes: 0
From: EPWA
well, this might be a little unconventional but:
has anyone tried to use some parapsychologist technology to show possible location of the plane? use several well qualified and independently working people to get several locations spotted, select where the density of spots is higghest and check there. This is a known and used way of founding things on the ground and AFAIK it works as well over water but it may have to be assisted by better maps of the bottom surface?
there are people capable of doing such things - with good results, even it there is much more people who do not believe this. I do not want to start a - i believe - i do not believe - discussion here. Just pointing out a possible way that can be exercised even before start of the coming search phase 4.
has anyone tried to use some parapsychologist technology to show possible location of the plane? use several well qualified and independently working people to get several locations spotted, select where the density of spots is higghest and check there. This is a known and used way of founding things on the ground and AFAIK it works as well over water but it may have to be assisted by better maps of the bottom surface?
there are people capable of doing such things - with good results, even it there is much more people who do not believe this. I do not want to start a - i believe - i do not believe - discussion here. Just pointing out a possible way that can be exercised even before start of the coming search phase 4.
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 87
Likes: 0
From: Around the World
After all, why not?
When we look behind the sofa of official researches, it seems justifiable to wonder what is the game of officials who make those researches.
And here are questioning of a 447's victims families association
(I'm sorry, go²gle translation).
When we look behind the sofa of official researches, it seems justifiable to wonder what is the game of officials who make those researches.
And here are questioning of a 447's victims families association
(I'm sorry, go²gle translation).
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 86
Likes: 0
From: EPWA
Yiorgos:
its good to know that even being a parapsychologist or shaman ona has certain limitations and certain dangers. After all this is working with souls or demons:
Imagine observing a medical operation that goes wrong: could you recognize what went wrong even if looking at all available displays or listening to short words spoken between the operating crew? Might be difficult...
Imagine yourself being able to see with your own eyes (even only as a vision) what was happening inside the cabin during the long minutes when the plane was falling down and when it started to sink. Could you mind stand up to the memories of witnessing sounds and pictures of people starting to understand tey are doomed? Memory of this would stay with you forever, every night and day.
jcjeant:
if you would have to decide where to search, knowing that last three attempts were looking at quite different areas after receiving very different scientifically based opinions, and that each day costs a lot of $$$ than alternative solutions does not look that much extravagant. Just think how many people use similar technology when digging for water.
why not go all the way and ...
Imagine observing a medical operation that goes wrong: could you recognize what went wrong even if looking at all available displays or listening to short words spoken between the operating crew? Might be difficult...
Imagine yourself being able to see with your own eyes (even only as a vision) what was happening inside the cabin during the long minutes when the plane was falling down and when it started to sink. Could you mind stand up to the memories of witnessing sounds and pictures of people starting to understand tey are doomed? Memory of this would stay with you forever, every night and day.
jcjeant:
if you would have to decide where to search, knowing that last three attempts were looking at quite different areas after receiving very different scientifically based opinions, and that each day costs a lot of $$$ than alternative solutions does not look that much extravagant. Just think how many people use similar technology when digging for water.
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 18
Likes: 0
From: USA
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
Yogi Berra
Yogi Berra
The problem with obtaining information through interpreting tea leaves, divining sheep entrails, throwing darts, astrology and other paranormal means is that they are pseudoscience. It has nothing to do with having open mind. There is simply no basis in fact for employing these techniques because they are not effective.
The excellent magazine "Skeptical Inquirer" (The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry) has many interesting articles about these and other techniques available on-line.
The excellent magazine "Skeptical Inquirer" (The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry) has many interesting articles about these and other techniques available on-line.
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 660
Likes: 0
From: I am where I am and that's all where I am.
Bear, Wylie Post may have sounded quite cogent in this regard to most. To me it's rubbish. And I'll stake my reputation as being the person in this household to go to for finding things.
I do not always find them first pass or even second or third. I just don't give up. Eventually something will prompt me that "I've not looked here before" and I find what I am looking for. That is if I don't discover it in a place I looked at and simply didn't connect what I saw with what I was looking for. And this is after my partner has looked for an hour or so.
If you're looking for something, and you have reason to believe it is within a specific volume, then don't stop looking. Expanding the boundaries is usually good for a break. But most of the time the prize is within the original search volume.
Of course, it helps to search the entire likely volume, repeatedly, before branching out very far. The key is, "Don't give up until the prize is in your hands." Giving up guarantees you will never find the prize.
I do not always find them first pass or even second or third. I just don't give up. Eventually something will prompt me that "I've not looked here before" and I find what I am looking for. That is if I don't discover it in a place I looked at and simply didn't connect what I saw with what I was looking for. And this is after my partner has looked for an hour or so.
If you're looking for something, and you have reason to believe it is within a specific volume, then don't stop looking. Expanding the boundaries is usually good for a break. But most of the time the prize is within the original search volume.
Of course, it helps to search the entire likely volume, repeatedly, before branching out very far. The key is, "Don't give up until the prize is in your hands." Giving up guarantees you will never find the prize.
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 183
Likes: 0
From: Marion, South Australia
JD-EE,
As my wife has pointed out to me the past and I daresay will point out to me many times in the future,
"Did you have a MAN look?"
You are right, many a time we males do not see things on the first pass or at all!!
As my wife has pointed out to me the past and I daresay will point out to me many times in the future,
"Did you have a MAN look?"
You are right, many a time we males do not see things on the first pass or at all!!
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 760
Likes: 9
From: Herts, UK
You are right, many a time we males do not see things on the first pass or at all!!
'Man' searches are rarely 50% succesful n this household
Unless searching for something a female has lost or mislaid which ups the % a bit
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 660
Likes: 0
From: I am where I am and that's all where I am.
Boys just give up to easy. And if it was a simple testosterone thing you'd think men would obsess about it until they found it. So it must be something else. Cultural?
Anyway, the key is persistence - if the famn dool thing still exists.
Anyway, the key is persistence - if the famn dool thing still exists.
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 443
Likes: 0
From: Boston
JD-EE et al
I usually find things in "the last place I look", then again if one keeps
on trying other places after finding something it raises questions about mental status.
As to women being better at finding things;
True enough if the objects are in plain sight or where they belong, on the other hand maybe not so much if a true sieve approach is required.
I once found a girlfriends lost pay check which she hid while drunk because she was afraid of theft or that she would misplace it. (I did mention she was drunk...)
Starting at one end of her room I individually examined each and every item larger than a coin. (she could have folded it to fit it somewhere.)
When I began inspecting each tissue in a box of Kleenex she was making great fun of me untill I found the paycheck about 1/2 way through the box.
Even so I almost missed it because of the way the tissues were interleaved - it was a good hidding place indeed.
Guess the point is that in the current context it is impossible to say that the recorders are not somehwere that has already been searched since the "sieve" approach cannot be used.
I usually find things in "the last place I look", then again if one keeps
on trying other places after finding something it raises questions about mental status.
As to women being better at finding things;
True enough if the objects are in plain sight or where they belong, on the other hand maybe not so much if a true sieve approach is required.
I once found a girlfriends lost pay check which she hid while drunk because she was afraid of theft or that she would misplace it. (I did mention she was drunk...)
Starting at one end of her room I individually examined each and every item larger than a coin. (she could have folded it to fit it somewhere.)
When I began inspecting each tissue in a box of Kleenex she was making great fun of me untill I found the paycheck about 1/2 way through the box.
Even so I almost missed it because of the way the tissues were interleaved - it was a good hidding place indeed.
Guess the point is that in the current context it is impossible to say that the recorders are not somehwere that has already been searched since the "sieve" approach cannot be used.
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3
Likes: 0
From: n/a
Hi all,
apologies if this has already been covered or if it is completely irrelevant but I saw this thread and it reminded me of something someone mentioned and I keep meaning to find out more about it. I am currently doing a type rating with my first airline so don't know much about this area but during a CRM course the instructor was talking about the Operational Flight Data Monitoring system and how it instantaneously alerts a land based computer system when an aircraft exceeds its limitations, such as flap exceedance speeds. He briefly mentioned AF 447 afterwards but I only caught the last few words. To cut to the chase, is it true/possible that Air France will have an idea of the situation of the aircraft immediately prior to its crash as a result of the OFDM system highlighting the parameters that were exceeded? If so with the data the OFDM provides (I'm not sure what information this is) do you think Air France have a pretty good inclination into the cause of the crash? The only things I caught when he mentioned AF 447 was that the information Air France had from OFDM would never be released to the public.
Thanks
apologies if this has already been covered or if it is completely irrelevant but I saw this thread and it reminded me of something someone mentioned and I keep meaning to find out more about it. I am currently doing a type rating with my first airline so don't know much about this area but during a CRM course the instructor was talking about the Operational Flight Data Monitoring system and how it instantaneously alerts a land based computer system when an aircraft exceeds its limitations, such as flap exceedance speeds. He briefly mentioned AF 447 afterwards but I only caught the last few words. To cut to the chase, is it true/possible that Air France will have an idea of the situation of the aircraft immediately prior to its crash as a result of the OFDM system highlighting the parameters that were exceeded? If so with the data the OFDM provides (I'm not sure what information this is) do you think Air France have a pretty good inclination into the cause of the crash? The only things I caught when he mentioned AF 447 was that the information Air France had from OFDM would never be released to the public.
Thanks