Pilotless airliner.
Humus Motor
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Sorry Management, there will always be a copilot...why? who else will do the walkaround?
Did you see the 757 going around after a tough cross wind approach? Can autopilots land in 30 knot crosswinds? (some pilots can't either I suppose).
and on the other side:
if it lands automatically, a tug can pull it to the gate...isn't that what Sr. Richard's plan is?
j
hey, what's up with heathrow, I thought they were Cat 3c?
Did you see the 757 going around after a tough cross wind approach? Can autopilots land in 30 knot crosswinds? (some pilots can't either I suppose).
and on the other side:
if it lands automatically, a tug can pull it to the gate...isn't that what Sr. Richard's plan is?
j
hey, what's up with heathrow, I thought they were Cat 3c?
Just a matter of time, but I doubt if I'll see it in the remaining 30 years of my career.
Not more than 50 years ago we were still carrying navigators as well as flight engineers, but now we're operating safely with just two pilots, who would have believed that possible 50 years ago? I honestly believe single pilot ops will be the next step if a proven technology is developed, to say take control of an aircraft from the ground, should the only pilot on board become incapacitated. There's obviously plenty of if, buts and maybe's but if a technology is developed at an attractive cost to the airline accountants then you can bet they'll embrace it if it reduces employee costs....
Prehaps a bit sci-fi but then once upon a time so was flying....
Not more than 50 years ago we were still carrying navigators as well as flight engineers, but now we're operating safely with just two pilots, who would have believed that possible 50 years ago? I honestly believe single pilot ops will be the next step if a proven technology is developed, to say take control of an aircraft from the ground, should the only pilot on board become incapacitated. There's obviously plenty of if, buts and maybe's but if a technology is developed at an attractive cost to the airline accountants then you can bet they'll embrace it if it reduces employee costs....
Prehaps a bit sci-fi but then once upon a time so was flying....
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There is an evil tendency underlying all our technology - the tendency to do what is reasonable even when it isn't any good.
Robert Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
All your comments are very self comforting, folks! Denial maybe? Or Using the Coué method for comforting yourself?
At the end of WW II, pilots were convinced airlines would never be allowed to fly across the desert or ocean without a navigator, at least not in their life time.
In 1960, the world aviation community scoffed at JFK who was day dreaming of sending people on the moon before the end of the decade.
"Not before next century" they all said.
In the mid sixties, pilots said, yelled, lobbyed that there would never be an airliner over 20 tons AUW flying without a Flight Engineer; at least not in their life time.
In the eighties, I heard pilots' credo that FANS and R/Tless ATC would never be implemented before a century at least.
For policy makers, pilotless aircraft is the "reasonable" thing to do, for the better of the world society, just like bombing Hiroshima, invading Viet Nam, Irak, and, who knows, one day, Canada. See quote above.
I do not say there shall be pilotless airliners in the near or distant future; but if I had to see one in the little of what's left of my life time, I wouldn't raise an eyebrow.
Today, kids are playing on computers 1000 times more powerfull than the ones that sent Armstrong on the moon. The 737 is doing well, and they even managed to fly the Caravelle and the A300 without FE. Pilots sleep so deep over the pacific, thanks to CPDLC and ADS, that they arrive in Seoul or Taipei fresher than when they left. Avoiding CB's: try this one: Morning Calm Airline doesn't need to turn their Wx Radar on for Cb's avoidance between Anchorage and Dallas, as their flight following ops control ACARS them directions and re-routings from Gimpo, before the clouds could even show on their screens.
The point? Putt's Law as here after.
Technology is dominated by two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.
Choose your side comrades.
Robert Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
All your comments are very self comforting, folks! Denial maybe? Or Using the Coué method for comforting yourself?
At the end of WW II, pilots were convinced airlines would never be allowed to fly across the desert or ocean without a navigator, at least not in their life time.
In 1960, the world aviation community scoffed at JFK who was day dreaming of sending people on the moon before the end of the decade.
"Not before next century" they all said.
In the mid sixties, pilots said, yelled, lobbyed that there would never be an airliner over 20 tons AUW flying without a Flight Engineer; at least not in their life time.
In the eighties, I heard pilots' credo that FANS and R/Tless ATC would never be implemented before a century at least.
For policy makers, pilotless aircraft is the "reasonable" thing to do, for the better of the world society, just like bombing Hiroshima, invading Viet Nam, Irak, and, who knows, one day, Canada. See quote above.
I do not say there shall be pilotless airliners in the near or distant future; but if I had to see one in the little of what's left of my life time, I wouldn't raise an eyebrow.
Today, kids are playing on computers 1000 times more powerfull than the ones that sent Armstrong on the moon. The 737 is doing well, and they even managed to fly the Caravelle and the A300 without FE. Pilots sleep so deep over the pacific, thanks to CPDLC and ADS, that they arrive in Seoul or Taipei fresher than when they left. Avoiding CB's: try this one: Morning Calm Airline doesn't need to turn their Wx Radar on for Cb's avoidance between Anchorage and Dallas, as their flight following ops control ACARS them directions and re-routings from Gimpo, before the clouds could even show on their screens.
The point? Putt's Law as here after.
Technology is dominated by two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.
Choose your side comrades.
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one of the problems with a pilotless airliner is this>
it will do fine with all the information entered in to it, even while enroute.
but
the one thing is the unknown. for example the Brazil mid air. with or without pilots on the 737, the last backup for radar/tcas and the like was the MK I eyeball.
sadly, it failed too.
I hope there is a pilotless airliner soon. it will probably be used by FEDEX or UPS first...their pilots get paid way too much anyway!
but please, keep the thing away from my neighborhood.
j
ps. there will be more flights grounded by the minor stuff some pilots choose to carry .
it will do fine with all the information entered in to it, even while enroute.
but
the one thing is the unknown. for example the Brazil mid air. with or without pilots on the 737, the last backup for radar/tcas and the like was the MK I eyeball.
sadly, it failed too.
I hope there is a pilotless airliner soon. it will probably be used by FEDEX or UPS first...their pilots get paid way too much anyway!
but please, keep the thing away from my neighborhood.
j
ps. there will be more flights grounded by the minor stuff some pilots choose to carry .
Humus Motor
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Lemper, I agree ... History is littered with the 'failure of imagination' - that is, to believe that futuristic developments are merely sci-fi dreams that reside in la-la land. But it is a common fallacy to think that just because some things that were thought impossible are now commonplace, that therefore anything that was thought impossible will eventually be achievable. It just ain't so. Ever tried unscrambling an egg?
My point was that the technology needed to render the whole air transport system completely pilotless may just be prohibitively expensive. I have no doubt that absolutely unimaginable advances in our industry are possible - given a blank cheque and say, the gross national product of a small country.
Call me old-fashioned, but being a paid up member of the old f#rt's club, I would prefer that when something is going badly wrong up front, that the person responsible for arranging my return to earth has his @rse up there with me ... rather than at that precise moment sitting drinking a caffe latte in some bar in silicon valley.
Merry Christmas!
My point was that the technology needed to render the whole air transport system completely pilotless may just be prohibitively expensive. I have no doubt that absolutely unimaginable advances in our industry are possible - given a blank cheque and say, the gross national product of a small country.
Call me old-fashioned, but being a paid up member of the old f#rt's club, I would prefer that when something is going badly wrong up front, that the person responsible for arranging my return to earth has his @rse up there with me ... rather than at that precise moment sitting drinking a caffe latte in some bar in silicon valley.
Merry Christmas!
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Some of the "reasons" why we can't have pilotless aircraft are pathetic! Can't avoid a CB, can't cope with a limiting cross-wind, can't taxi, can't cope without ILS, can't "see". These are all easy to achieve.
However, the fact that the 787/A350 are not single pilot tells me that pilotless airliners are a long way off.
However, the fact that the 787/A350 are not single pilot tells me that pilotless airliners are a long way off.
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C'mon fellas. Take a deep breath.
The flying crew of 2106 will still have pilots. In fact, the number of flight crew will be larger, per aircraft operation, than now.
Pilots will be very highly compensated and will be widely known by name and various nicknames, similar to actors and futbol stars. Like their navigation counterparts, the Air Traffic Controllers, Pilots will mostly work from secure windowless bunkers, distributed strategically about the planet. Each pilot will have several Assistant-Pilots at the same location or in equivalent distant facilities. The many inflight duties and responsibilities are delegated as necessary by the managing Pilot to Assistant Pilots with calm precision, throughout each flight. Each pod of Pilot + AP's will fly several aircraft at a time from highly automated consoles. Some direct flight controls for the actual aircraft will be available to the ground Pilots for special circumstances, but normally those are not used because all automatic-class air carrier aircraft in flight and on the ground will be controlled by internal robotics, much as are elevators, bread ovens, and automated factory production lines.
In each aircraft will be two or more Aircraft Unit Managers (AUMs) who are directly responsible for the conduct and successful outcome of the flight. They will supervise all ground arrangements, the fuel cost-management program, passenger-related matters, and flight documentation and reporting. If, during the flight, the Pilots request supplemental information regarding weather or aircraft systems, in addition to the river of data continuously transferred through telemetry, then the AUMs will skillfully do the job, using cameras and information retrieval tools optimised for the purpose. The AUMs will also have sole onboard responsibility for operation of the small switch panels that can change certain configuration details for the control systems, should the need arise.
In line with long-standing airline tradition, AUM's will be the 'first to arrive' at each destination. Because taxiing, towing and parking remain the aviation functions most difficult to automate, the AUMs will work from a porthole-equipped compartment in the lower portion of the aircraft nose, located directly under the premium first-class club-deck area which is universally known as " the Captains Lounge."
The flying crew of 2106 will still have pilots. In fact, the number of flight crew will be larger, per aircraft operation, than now.
Pilots will be very highly compensated and will be widely known by name and various nicknames, similar to actors and futbol stars. Like their navigation counterparts, the Air Traffic Controllers, Pilots will mostly work from secure windowless bunkers, distributed strategically about the planet. Each pilot will have several Assistant-Pilots at the same location or in equivalent distant facilities. The many inflight duties and responsibilities are delegated as necessary by the managing Pilot to Assistant Pilots with calm precision, throughout each flight. Each pod of Pilot + AP's will fly several aircraft at a time from highly automated consoles. Some direct flight controls for the actual aircraft will be available to the ground Pilots for special circumstances, but normally those are not used because all automatic-class air carrier aircraft in flight and on the ground will be controlled by internal robotics, much as are elevators, bread ovens, and automated factory production lines.
In each aircraft will be two or more Aircraft Unit Managers (AUMs) who are directly responsible for the conduct and successful outcome of the flight. They will supervise all ground arrangements, the fuel cost-management program, passenger-related matters, and flight documentation and reporting. If, during the flight, the Pilots request supplemental information regarding weather or aircraft systems, in addition to the river of data continuously transferred through telemetry, then the AUMs will skillfully do the job, using cameras and information retrieval tools optimised for the purpose. The AUMs will also have sole onboard responsibility for operation of the small switch panels that can change certain configuration details for the control systems, should the need arise.
In line with long-standing airline tradition, AUM's will be the 'first to arrive' at each destination. Because taxiing, towing and parking remain the aviation functions most difficult to automate, the AUMs will work from a porthole-equipped compartment in the lower portion of the aircraft nose, located directly under the premium first-class club-deck area which is universally known as " the Captains Lounge."
Last edited by arcniz; 22nd Dec 2006 at 00:50.
Below the Glidepath - not correcting
You are all looking far too deep into this - it won't happen for 2 reasons only;
1. No more "Pilot Error causes Orphange Death near Nuclear Power station" headlines for the media.
2. Nobody for the Ambulance chasers to drop a lawsuit on.
Can't have victims without a villain.
1. No more "Pilot Error causes Orphange Death near Nuclear Power station" headlines for the media.
2. Nobody for the Ambulance chasers to drop a lawsuit on.
Can't have victims without a villain.
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Can't help thinking that all this "won't ever happen" ignores the facts of airline ops today. Most crews are encouraged to engage the Autopilot at 600 feet on takeoff, couple it to the FMS and down the ILS via a NAV to NAV transfer to DH (which could be right to touchdown). Add Synthetic Vision and/or Enhanced Vision with pattern recognition like the DARPA trials vehicles (a much tougher test than landing straight ahead or taxiing in) and you're there. Probably doable for much less than the half a billion euros quoted.
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hmm i dont know about this. a few things
1.) i am not ready to travel on a pilotless aircraft, and i can assure you 98% of the population is the same.
2.) there are too many variables. can they possibly cover each emergency situation? electronics failure? that wouldn't be good
other things also come to mind... severe turbulence? if the computer has no way of measuring this then the pax are in for one hell of a ride. i could go on and on......
they are surely thinking into the future but as someone else mentioned here, this generation is not yet ready for it. and I agree, a PROPER fully automated vacuum system hasn't even been designed yet. they are still riddled with flaws. If we can't design that, how will we perfect an aircraft?
Needless to say when it does happen (which i am almost certain it WILL), there will be an accident and it will be very tragic.. not to mention the end of that concept. I must admit i am looking to enter the airline "phase" of my life as soon as possible and i would dread to see this concept take off in my lifetime. Imagine all the pilots out of work. Not to worry, i am sure planes will still have pilots for many many years to come
1.) i am not ready to travel on a pilotless aircraft, and i can assure you 98% of the population is the same.
2.) there are too many variables. can they possibly cover each emergency situation? electronics failure? that wouldn't be good
other things also come to mind... severe turbulence? if the computer has no way of measuring this then the pax are in for one hell of a ride. i could go on and on......
they are surely thinking into the future but as someone else mentioned here, this generation is not yet ready for it. and I agree, a PROPER fully automated vacuum system hasn't even been designed yet. they are still riddled with flaws. If we can't design that, how will we perfect an aircraft?
Needless to say when it does happen (which i am almost certain it WILL), there will be an accident and it will be very tragic.. not to mention the end of that concept. I must admit i am looking to enter the airline "phase" of my life as soon as possible and i would dread to see this concept take off in my lifetime. Imagine all the pilots out of work. Not to worry, i am sure planes will still have pilots for many many years to come
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Some evidence.
I wonder what Capt. Almlie would think the chances of a computer successfully doing his job are?
I wonder what Capt. Almlie would think the chances of a computer successfully doing his job are?
There is a very simple reason why it will never happen. Two pilots are cheaper than the development and certification costs involved with replacing them.
What does an average airline crew cost you? Maybe £200k pa times 5 crews per aircraft. So that is a £1m a year per aircraft. If you replaced them you'd still need someone to control the aircraft from the bunker. You'd need more staff to handle the aircraft during the turnaround. So you'd never save £1m - maybe half a million.
But the aircraft would be twice as expensive to buy due to the new technology and certification costs. The interest on the capital would easily wipe out the half a million pound saving on the wage bill.
So it won't happen. Cutting the pilot wage bills is a small saving paid for by a massively costly investment programme.
The Engineers could make it happen. The Accountants would never let them.
WWW
What does an average airline crew cost you? Maybe £200k pa times 5 crews per aircraft. So that is a £1m a year per aircraft. If you replaced them you'd still need someone to control the aircraft from the bunker. You'd need more staff to handle the aircraft during the turnaround. So you'd never save £1m - maybe half a million.
But the aircraft would be twice as expensive to buy due to the new technology and certification costs. The interest on the capital would easily wipe out the half a million pound saving on the wage bill.
So it won't happen. Cutting the pilot wage bills is a small saving paid for by a massively costly investment programme.
The Engineers could make it happen. The Accountants would never let them.
WWW
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That bunker idea doesnt sound too appealing if I shall be honest.. What is the fun with that
?
And as the previous poster said, the costs seems pretty high for a pilotless airliner.
I always thought that trains, boats and cars would be automated before airliners.
Anyway I hope that this wont happen in our lifetime.
?And as the previous poster said, the costs seems pretty high for a pilotless airliner.
I always thought that trains, boats and cars would be automated before airliners.
Anyway I hope that this wont happen in our lifetime.
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Some of the "reasons" why we can't have pilotless aircraft are pathetic! Can't avoid a CB, can't cope with a limiting cross-wind, can't taxi, can't cope without ILS, can't "see". These are all easy to achieve.
However, the fact that the 787/A350 are not single pilot tells me that pilotless airliners are a long way off.
However, the fact that the 787/A350 are not single pilot tells me that pilotless airliners are a long way off.
What happened the last time that a solo pilot propeller crashed thanks to pilot incapacitation, or collided with and destroyed an airliner? What happens next time?
How long before Boeing and Airbus feel compelled to build solo pilot cockpits for BBJ and ACJ, and then dump copilots from the rest of the commercial fleet, as they did with A300, B737, B767 or DC-10 flight engineers?
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Pilotless airplane?
It isn't going to happen.
The maximum I could forecast is a remotely piloted aircraft, the pilot still exists, it is just seated somewhere else.
The same happened to the navigators, radio operators, flight engineers.
They didn't disappear, in my cockpit they are all present, in the form of a PNF (or Pilot Monitoring as they like to call it now).
It isn't going to happen.
The maximum I could forecast is a remotely piloted aircraft, the pilot still exists, it is just seated somewhere else.
The same happened to the navigators, radio operators, flight engineers.
They didn't disappear, in my cockpit they are all present, in the form of a PNF (or Pilot Monitoring as they like to call it now).
so i agree with what I-FORD is saying, as things become even more automated, the workload will reduce to the extent where there will be only 1 pilot on board the aircraft to monitor the systems. With CATIII approaches and autolands becoming more common these days the pilot can literally do very little! I would also expect en-route airways clearances to become automated in the near future, maybe through the FMS but i understand this is already occurring to some extent? By saying this i am basically implying that things will become automated to such an extent that a co-pilot will no longer be required, however it would be boring as all hell for the guy in the nose and i would sincerely hope that there is someone else onboard the aircraft who could resume his postion if something were to happen.