Speaking as someone who has become on first name terms with most liquidators...

The angel of death is moving around us once more Brothers and Sisters. Let us pray that she doesn't stop at our crewroom door for verily,no soul is safe from her tallons.

:sad:

Stand 22, I'm afraid the media exposure (fairly or unfairly) goes with being a publicly quoted company on the stock exchange.
Exposed dubious accounting practices, a multitude of profit warnings, re-financing deadlines and the turnover of boardroom staff are likely to attract the interest of media vultures.

Lou Scannon, I disagree that TCX has not taken desperate measures. Redundancies, fleet reductions, pay cuts & freezes and an assortment of other cost-cutting measures were applied post Sep 11th. The German operation is now suffering the same pain the UK arm had to endure (13 757s taken out of service).

MYT took a gamble by not reducing capacity 2 years ago like the other charter operators and this unfortunately is why they are paying for it now.

Disturbing to note is talk around the bazaars surrounding the query as to how the other players - BY, MON,AMM, TCX - will absorb MYT business when the axe falls - probably just idle gossip but this is a rumour forum !

@ middlepath
 

You can't really be serious about your statement. Take a look at LH, seems to be one of the most efficient airlines in the whole industry. And - if I'm not mistaken - they are german.

So long,
DBate

beamer,

The DFO at our lot was outlining the contigency plans for the demise of MYT at the annual base visits in January this year and they're thankfully still here.

Beamer

The vultures have been making plans ever since this mess started, it is no rumour! You can't blame them they are all fighting for survival.

My guess is the German market is going to loose a big player and that will impact on the UK. Even if this does happen or if MYT fails it will not mean automatic salvation for the remaining operators as the market is still vulnerable to further pressures on the economy, increasing interest rates and fear of flying due security issues. The German owned UK operators are at the mercy of their parent company’s success and sadly no matter how well they do they will not be protected from a major collapse in Germany. Looking at the projected write downs at TC AG you could see LH pull out of this market and throw TC to the wolves that would leave TC UK very vulnerable indeed.

Even BA is still under threat; I doubt they would survive another 9/11. As it is they will need further large restructuring to survive.

EPRman/Spy

Thanks for replies - I know that at 'board level' these plans have been explored for a long time - I only mention the subject because there seems to be a gathering of pace on the flightline - engineers, handling agents etc which I had not heard until now.
I have a number of friends at MYT who I do not wish to see out of work but looking at prices and load factors throughout the industry I cannot help but see the term 'over-capacity' in my mind.

just because you're the favourite to win(or fall) doesn't mean
you can't be upstaged by an outsider. life is full of surprises
especially if you're at the mercy of a german parent company.

I have not seen any evidence myself Beamer and certainly there is no change or information being passed to the handling agents at Gatwick to whom I have spoken or the engineers. I would be surprised if companies were not making plans, they did the same last year, it makes good sense to be prepared but only time will tell. My view is MYT will limp on; my concern is for TC as the German situation according to a friend in the city is going to be very bad in the New Year. MYT’s books will look very good by comparison!

If MYT can hold on until then the landscape may change dramatically and depending on their position then, all may be well for the summer. This all assumes the economy stays stable and we have no major terrorist activity between now and then and bookings hold firm with good margins.

I think you will see some very big changes at MYT and if they are made I can see the company returning from the brink, if not it is just a question of time.
:(

Apparently I can't post a short answer so I will give a longer one!

I agree the situation in the German market is going to come home to roost and have some dramatic effects on the UK. I think we will be looking at a very different situation in the New Year as the German operators will be forced to make massive changes to survive. This will without doubt inpact on UK German owned operators regardless of how well they may be doing.

Brace, Brace! Another bad year for the industry ahead!:{

Without wanting to upset the moderators may I ask why the TC thread has been moved but not the Mytravel thread?

because there's a hate capmaign against them?

The difference with Cook's and MYT is this:

Thomas Cook have announced losses group wide, but can see an improving situation. The UK is profitable for them. Germany is not, but is recovering allegedly.

MYT are strapped with debt, and cannot wriggle free without selling the best parts of their businesses, which leaves all the under performing ones in the portfolio. Hardly a good starting point for recovery....

MYT are having to fire sale these assets to survive this winter, by their own admission.

Thomas Cook has two large parent shareholders in LUFTHANSA and KARSTADT QUELLE, who have publicly said this week that they are sticking with the plan and will support Thomas Cook at this time.

Spot the difference anyone?

yes, that's as maybe, but first i was afraid i was petrified, kept thinking i could never live without you by my travel side.....

MYT
 

Nature must take its course. It always did ....so what exactly is new here. I believe it is a well understood fact of business life in the western world that a company has a life span of 10 to 12 years before a cycle of renewal. Is this what we are seeing here perhaps. koi

Fire sale????? Don't think so tailscrape!! :rolleyes: If we weren't getting a fair price for the businesses and we were selling all the businesses in desperation, then maybe you could call it that, but when MYT has refused a number of bidders for the likes of Cresta because they weren't bidding enough I don't think you can call it a fire sale.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that the German parents won't offload TC UK to protect their German interests!! They won't hesitate for a minute. I know you regard TC as "home" - your own words - but don't say things you know to be untrue, just to score points.

here here slt. simply disposal of businesses acquired over the years that are now considered non-core.

Agreed dada!!. The banks have lent us (quite literally!) heavy support, and they're not about to withdraw it now! I have a feeling that as spy says, the picture is going to change a fair bit in the coming months.

Fingers crossed!!!

Tailscrape

I did not realise you were a moderator!

Beware, I have heard the same story from other management teams just before the light went out! Hope it is an improving situation for all concerned but the mess in Germany has been on it's way for a while and now I am afraid it is just starting to arrive!

As we are being forced to sell off non core businesses so will the Germans, TC and TC Ag may not be core to LH.

SLT,dada,kinsman

Your enthusiasm for all things "thunderbirds" is laudable. And I am not a moderator.

The reported facts are these:

MYT is having, byt it's chief exec's admission, to sell businesses to survive THIS WINTER. It faces a cash crunch.

MYT has had it's shareholder value diminished by it's wasteful management over the last 5 years.

MYT is now 20 odd % owned directly by the banks.

It's shares have slid to around 15p .

No one has bid for MYT because it is virtually bankrupt. No competitor will buy capacity from you in a sale at fancy prices, because the chances are that they may get it for nothing before next spring.

MYT has junk status amongst the credit community, meaning that if people were to lend you money you would pay more for it. And that you cannot afford.


Now, let's contrast that to the plight of Thomas Cook:

TCAG are making horrendous losses.

TCUK made a record profit.

The group has two main shareholders. Lufthansa and Karstadt Quelle. Both have reaffirmed their commitment to the group strategy.

No assets are being sold. Yet.

The company answers to two shareholders, not 200,000 like MYT do.

If TCUK were sold, then so be it. However they are a going profitable concern. So, unlike MYT the situation is different.

Personally, I wish we could all work in a stable environment. All pilot's should start on £100000 p.a. and have company ferraris. We don't though, and it is survival of the fittest.

Thomas Cook may not be in the best of health, but in the industry eyes, MYT have already been given a lethal dose of sodium pentathol and are not long for this world.

Bad news it is, but that is the way of it. Please feel free to come back and abuse me. It always happens when I tell the truth.:(

Tailscrape it is the truth as you see it!

No one is in a position to buy MYT in Europe!

I suggest you lookup the definition of bankrupt as MYT are not in that position as we speak.

You are correct TC have only two shareholders and that makes you feel safer!

I doubt anyone will want to buy a UK tour operator/airline be it MYT or TC.

The scale of the problems in Germany are huge and dwarf the finacial problems at MYT.

All that said no one questions the deep problems at MYT but there is still life and therefore hope. You and others were forcasting the demise of MYT this time last year and it is still here.

kinsman

You could buy MYT for not a lot at the minute. No one wants to, not no one can.

Kinsman,

No-one here wants MYT to fold but to say that TCX are in a more precarious position is just not true. I rather think that it is wishful thinking to deflect the media interest in MYT.

TCX UK will be recruiting pilots next year and I suspect that MYT type rated guys will be applying. I rather doubt that TCX UK pilots will be applying to MYT.

Time will tell but my own gut feeling is that MYT, if it is to survive, will be downsized drastically as more pieces of the group are sold off to reduce debt.

As for buying MYT as a whole entity, I don't think in its current predicament, that there would be any takers, as large amounts of debt would be unattractive to any purchaser.

Tailscrape

You are of course correct the situation at MYT is not good. But to put the TC situation in context many of the MYT companies are making money just like TC UK but that will not protect them if the group fails nor will it protect TC UK.

The reason TC UK is in a position to turn in any kind of profit this year is due to the intervention of the Germans and this can work both ways! Much of the write down in Germany is due to the rescue of TC UK.

I don’t think having only two share holders is an advantage frankly as that makes it easier to dispose of assets. Airlines are rarely seen as assets to tour companies these days I am sad to say!

Taking on pilots is not an indicator of a healthy company AE were doing it right to the end. It also means you may have an unhappy work force if you need more pilots and you are not increasing capacity!

Spy

"Much of the write down in Germany is due to the rescue of TC UK."

Incorrect


Kinsman

"The scale of the problems in Germany are huge and dwarf the finacial problems at MYT."

Totally incorrect

Diplomat,

You assert that previous posts are incorrect. Please embelish us with the facts as to why.

A4

MYT does have one asset, the slots and lots of them.
This may well help to find a buyer of sorts for the airline.

Kinsman et al, treat TAILSCRAPE's postings with the disdain they deserve. A quick trawl of his many postings will show what a twisted and bitter sad individual he is. He USED to work for TC once upon a time and was forced to go elswhere (DHL) although he has tried many other companies to no avail, I wonder why ?

Yes it is a rumour network, and many thrive upon it. I hope you all pull through at MYT. Although we all chat and banter on here, isn't it a shame that fellow professionals can't be a little more supportive in difficult times instead of being full of destructive comments. Let's try to get at the truth, but without the vitriol please. Best of luck from spotty, and hope to see some of you on the Hajj.

Flex42 good point well made! Interesting view of tailscrape and explains a lot.

Lou nice thought but as I stated earlier no one is in a position to buy us at the moment. You could get us cheap true but the debt would be a problem!

I will fight MYT's corner here but we must face the fact that things could be a lot better! MYT may yet pull out of this mess, tomorrow will be interesting!

I am not sure if the lack of press coverage at the moment is good or bad! Strange having spent so much time on these pages complaining about the press coverage!;)

To the TC Experts:

Can you tell us TC's current level of debt, that is, what they owe to banks, finance houses, etc?

I read somewhere that it was in the order of €2-3billion, which makes MYT's woes look somewhat paltry.

Discuss.

Those figures sound about right but they are of course in a different position to MYT. Their troubles are just starting to surface and they appear at least to have a sound team leading in Germany, all be it two have just done a runner! TC's problems are linked to a poor German economy over which they have no control. MYT was down to poor leadership!

I have no idea where it will end but I am sure LH cant afford to support these loses for long, they are still recovering like all the other major carriers from 9/11, SARS etc.

What do we know about big business?
 

Check out Der Spiegel this morning, and you'll read that TC is to be broken up by it's 2 share-holders, with TC's French and UK businesses on the block to finance the "re-structure". This makes some of the previous contributors look rather daft.

The reality is that most of us "drivers" are active at conjecture but useless at anticipating accurately the moves made at board level. (I guess if we were so good at business, we would not be working on the flight-deck). I hope it all works out o.k for pilots of both TC and MYT, not forgetting all the other fine employees of these 2 companies.

MissChief,

I wonder if you will deem your own post of Nov 8th "daft" then in the coming weeks and months ?

The new hands at the helm have been in position for less than a week and are only temporary. I rather doubt such a radical decision has already been taken and suspect that is conjecture and rumour by German media enjoying a feeding frenzy.

Besides, putting TCX UK "on the block" as you put it is hardly good business sense as it is profitable. May I suggest that a more sensible course of action would be to carve up the loss- making German arm.

As you correctly assert, people here are guessing the outcomes at MYT and TCX in the same way as the media be it English or German !

flex42,

Oh what a big man you are. Nice to see a balanced individual....

My comments are based on what I have read in the press, and from certain info I have available.

As for identifying people, well you are just sad for slating me personally. And as for who I work for, well is that your business?

If you do not like other's opinions, then log off. Permanently.

well said, get out of here. talk like this is killing off the thread - keep to the subject or the thread will soon be dead.

With respect, spy, debt is debt; it has to be repaid at sometime.

The two that "did a runner" from the TC Group board HAD TO, before they were removed, so, possibly their management skills and "leadership" left a little to be desired.

And to LIMA OR ALPHA JUNK: The UK arm of TC is only in profit now because of the large write-off's that have been absorbed elswhere in the TC Group. Unfortunately for TC, there is no money left in the kitty to do the same for the German operation. And, as "Cash Flow is King", methinks that TC will sell the parts that they can get the best price for.

The Inclusive Tour business Europe-wide is in the trough-part of the 3-to-5 year cycle that affects our industry. One just has to look around at most operators woes.
The survivors will be those who have taken their heads out of the sand, not those that still have their heads buried in the sand, and that applies to the workforce as much as the management.
Those terms and conditions that we, as employees have gained, will rapidly be erroded to pay for all-round mis-management, corruption and general economic malaise.

Oh, dear; I seem to have used the "C" word!

Good luck to all of us, I wish no ill of anyone. Just security and good health for us all.
Sadly, all the uncertainty in my company is now affecting the health of my family.

PS. One other question. How many TC/Condor B757's are parked-up, now?

Lima

I suspect if there is a move to dispose of TC UK/France it was an option looked at a few months ago when this situation was looming, it will not be a snap decision. I agree that debt is debt my point was thay MYT can change leadership and structure to try and improve their situation, TC Ag are still victim to a weak German economy and can do little to effect that.

I think it is time this thread moved to a different title myself. I suspect TC UK will continue in one form or another but as with MYT only time will tell. Good luck.

Tailscape

Keep your hair on no one knows who you are except flex42! Sounds like he hit a nerve though! If personel comment offends you then I would moderate your posts they often seem shall we say insensitive!

Prince of Darkness,

I believe the number is 13 757's as previously stated on this thread.

TCX UK has been turned round due to enforced cost savings of £140m that were implememented in the main by a small egyptian fella who, whilst being universally unpopular, got the job done. I'm not sure where these enormous writedowns you refer to come from.

Spy,

That may well be the case. Who knows ? All I do know is that the UK operation has operated profitably whilst MYTs has not this year. Cost cutting and capacity reduction appears to have worked at TCX UK and has worked at other tour operators. Lets hope that MYT management can sort out their long term financing and return to a profitable business model in the UK.

A quick point.

I have had a complaint that an attempt is being made to identify one of the posters on this thread. This is a no no.

We do not take kindly to anyone naming names on PPRuNe. So be aware that it usually results in one or more persons being removed from the thread - sometimes even removed from PPRuNe. :ugh:

This thread is VERY important to a lot of people with a lot more to be said, especially is if a sudden announcement is made. Hopefully none. So please stay on topic and have regard to those who work for MYT and who must being feeling very grotty at the moment. Best wishes to them all.

PPP

Pprune pop

This thread appears to be important only to those who do not work for MYT. Your comment regarding sudden announcements is ill judged an insensitive in the extreme, I suggest you rethink it. I think you will find most MYT employees would gladly see this thread closed it really is not important to them more irritating actually! MYT employees will hear soon enough if there is any news though their own web site.