Save Jet Airways

[Wannabe Flyer]

apache

Capt

Sit around a dinner table with 8 indians (who have been given one topic to discuss) and see if in 10 mins you can count the number of conversations going on including multiple multi tasking ones. Now appoint one of them a leader to co ordiante and wait another 10 mins.

You will notice

1) Leader is already unpopular and 3 more want his place
2) Initial topic that was given as part of conversation has now become at least 6
3) Voices are louder
4) 10 people with 100 opinions led by 9 leaders
5) the 2 who do not become leader will now start plotting on how to pull the other one down and will form camps.

Now multiply this by 900

This is what a union meeting will disolve into

[Capt Apache]

People in doubt about what Wannabe said must take a look here

YouTube - Fight between ministers in UP - Not at Indian Parliament

We solve problems the fun way.Don't we?

Union is the Way- Ofcourse !!!

[jimmygill]

Thanks for the data..

I think the problem will now start. All of a sudden it bacame the "in thing" for parents to make thier kids pilots (much like the doctor and engineer and then the MBA boom). This has seen a lot of dubious colleges and a surplus inflow of "qualified" pilots flooding an industry which was predicting a huge demand. As we all know the last 20 months have been akin to melted cheese. Kids with aspirations and who have heard fast track stories of the past few years now want thier piece of the pie, and it is just not possible. In the same token these guys probably have it in them but need a few good years at various levels before they earn the right under the old system (like AI of yester year) to sit in that left seat.

The problem has already started. By year end DGCA would have issued approximately in addition to 1800 CPL, for year 2009. Total number of CPL issued so far by DGCA will approx 9000.

In year 2009. I expect around 4500 additional Pilot Computer number issued, a statistics which indicate the number of pilots who have at least 10 hrs of flight time.

Only silver lining is that new Class 2 Medical assessments (an Indicator of new interest in Plot and ATC license) in 2009 is expected not to cross 3000.

In next few years indian economy growth will linger around 10% (optimistically speaking) which will give a most optimistic growth rate of 15%.

From current employment figure of 4000 it will take approximately 5 years to reach 8000, and then too we may not be able to accommodate more than 30% of new trainees.

[Wannabe Flyer]

Unemployement

Jimmy

Bingo, yo hit the nail on the head. Supply will exceed demand, market forces will kick in. The position airlines were in a few years ago will be reversed and the shoe will be on the other foot.

I see static or lower wages coming.

[jimmygill]

Flight Training Institutions

What still beats me is the new flight training institutions which keep coming up in India. Every month more and more training aircrafts are added to the DGCAs register. At this time the total domestic flight crew training capacity could be anywhere between 1000-2000 cadets per year.

I have no doubts about new trainees jumping into career without proper research, we can't expect anything more from 18-years-olds-all-expense-paid-training-holidays scenario. What bothers me is the rate at which private flight training industry is expanding in India. Are they seeing something which I am missing, are they planning short term or long term?

During my experience as instructor in a few flying schools in India, the most difficult question I faced was not related to aerodynamics, flying the aircraft or the DGCA exams. The most difficult question was "Will I get a job after the course?"

Trying to answer that question takes me right back to Professional Ethics classroom. I cannot give them a de-motivating answer, and I cannot give them anything other than my 'true opinion' on it. So I will go like, "You work hard now, and you work hard after the course, you will get what you want if you put hard work?"

[drive73]

Jimmy, You are correct the Indian aviation industry has a descent track record for fatalities, but stats can be used to make counter points as well. Look at fleet sizes, flights per day, types of flying, on and on.. If your going to throw out a list, it must be a comparitive list.
I see the product who want to and feel they are ready for upgrade everyday. So far, at Jet they are smart enouph to not upgrade these guys. The major problem is at some point thier number will come and hopefully the attitude they currently display will have changed, or the track record will change..

[fullforward]

Statistics

The statistics shown above, simply put, try to compare oranges with elephants and is as valuable as the pixels on the screen.

We agree that investing a good sum on flight training to end up whithout that seat on a Boeing can be very frustrating. However, the boom is over and there's no signs to restart.
Better the healthy Indian daddys incentive their kids on another career paths: doctors, lawyers, engineers etc. It will be certainlly money better spent.
Force this 200hrs wannabes into the market and/or promote to captain with the bare legal minimum now will sacrifice the safety records and thus whole industry for nothing. Lessons from the past must be learnt.

There's enough pilots for the next 5 years, at least.

[jimmygill]

Oranges and Apples

Statistics
The statistics shown above, simply put, try to compare oranges with elephants and is as valuable as the pixels on the screen.

The numbers presented above were facts and expectations, there is no comparison shown. Reference to oranges, elephants and comparisons are all uncalled for. At least this 'wannabe' is not able to make a sense out of this post.

[purple]

Good Morning!
Being one of the pioneers of this outfit seconded from M'sian Airline back in the early nineties, it was a pleasure working for Jet and my high regards to some individuals who are still there. From merger 5 aeroplanes the airline has expended leaps and bound. An Association or a Union should be in place from the very onset. This is to protect pilot's interest in terms of progression, seniority, pay, accommodation, technical enquiries etc. Rest assured this is by no means to cripple the airline. Many international airlines have Association or Union in place and they have not faultier or gone belly up, where some has of course but this not solely the cause of a Union or an Association. Anyway, good luck to you boys out there and hope all works out well for everyone.