Boeing statements regarding aviation in India
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Boeing statements regarding aviation in India
Run Forest, Run! It ain't pretty. I think airlines will start to send expats home in the the very near future. They will either exercise their 30 day contract termination clause, or you will just fail your checkride, and make it convenient for the airline to get rid of you. Here is the article. The first sign of real trouble will be when hotel bills aren't paid and then your paycheck will "rubber biscuit."
After 2012, India demand will fall 50%, says BoeingManisha Singhal / Mumbai June 26, 2008, 0:09 ISTAircraft manufacturer Boeing is reducing its forecast of the Indian market by half beyond 2012 as a result of the slowdown in the aviation sector.
"This is not the time when airlines would talk about booking new orders. If we were talking about an order size of 60 earlier, it would be between 25-30 for the next ten years from 2012," said Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president (sales), Boeing.
Keskar also said that airlines in India would have to cut existing capacity by at least 10-12 per cent to tide over the current crisis.
"Airlines in the US are cutting capacity by 10 per cent approximately. In India, they will have to sooner or later cut at least 10-12 per cent capacity," he said.
However, Keskar also pointed out that there has been no cancellation or deferring of orders by domestic carriers until now, despite their plea that there is need to trim capacity.
"We are not getting any indications of deferment of deliveries from our buyers," Keskar said.
Boeing assisted low-cost carrier SpiceJet to sub-lease its deliveries to other buyers, thereby insulating itself from a possible deferment of five aircraft deliveries that the airline was scheduled to get over five months beginning this month. Boeing has an order book of 161 aircraft between Jet Airways, Air India and SpiceJet with deliveries scheduled till 2012.
Another aircraft manufacturer Airbus was non-committal and said, "When customers refine their fleet renewal plans, we work with them and adapt."
Keskar points out a development which could emerge from the current crisis. He says it will bring about a business-model differentiation.
"There was an artificial stimulation of demand, which was the result of irrational pricing by the airlines. Now, there will be an actual business model differentiation between a full-service carrier and no-frills carrier, as, it is being realised that there is no such thing as low-cost airlines," he said.
After 2012, India demand will fall 50%, says BoeingManisha Singhal / Mumbai June 26, 2008, 0:09 ISTAircraft manufacturer Boeing is reducing its forecast of the Indian market by half beyond 2012 as a result of the slowdown in the aviation sector.
"This is not the time when airlines would talk about booking new orders. If we were talking about an order size of 60 earlier, it would be between 25-30 for the next ten years from 2012," said Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president (sales), Boeing.
Keskar also said that airlines in India would have to cut existing capacity by at least 10-12 per cent to tide over the current crisis.
"Airlines in the US are cutting capacity by 10 per cent approximately. In India, they will have to sooner or later cut at least 10-12 per cent capacity," he said.
However, Keskar also pointed out that there has been no cancellation or deferring of orders by domestic carriers until now, despite their plea that there is need to trim capacity.
"We are not getting any indications of deferment of deliveries from our buyers," Keskar said.
Boeing assisted low-cost carrier SpiceJet to sub-lease its deliveries to other buyers, thereby insulating itself from a possible deferment of five aircraft deliveries that the airline was scheduled to get over five months beginning this month. Boeing has an order book of 161 aircraft between Jet Airways, Air India and SpiceJet with deliveries scheduled till 2012.
Another aircraft manufacturer Airbus was non-committal and said, "When customers refine their fleet renewal plans, we work with them and adapt."
Keskar points out a development which could emerge from the current crisis. He says it will bring about a business-model differentiation.
"There was an artificial stimulation of demand, which was the result of irrational pricing by the airlines. Now, there will be an actual business model differentiation between a full-service carrier and no-frills carrier, as, it is being realised that there is no such thing as low-cost airlines," he said.
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I think for once someone has read the industry in India well.This reminds me of a statement that Dinesh Keskar had made about 5 years ago when he was asked about wether Boeing was worried about losing mega orders to various carriers in India to Airbus.He had replied that Boeing was concentraing on carriers that were committed to their orders.And in hindsight I think that was a good strategy for from what I hear Airbus is right now trying their best to help Kingfisher and Indigo out with their orders.For if either of these carriers sink , that certainly would add to Airbus's woes.I think the future would see a marked increase in airfares coupled with a slowdown in the Indian economy.This would lead to major route rationalisation or mabe cutting back of routes.There will inevitably be a cut on staff.The first to go would be the ground staff or non specialist staff.After that the expats and then eventually if they don't survive the Indian crew sink along with the ship.Hopefully by then everyone would have swam ashore...so I'm just going to sit back relax and see if I've got the future right....
N4790P
I suspect Jet will weather the storm as they are the only experienced non government backed carrier. They still pay their bills on time (well as on time as Indian procedures permit).
I further suspect that KFA/Deccan will be the 1st to seriously cut back orders and quite soon at that.
I further suspect that KFA/Deccan will be the 1st to seriously cut back orders and quite soon at that.
