Friendly reminder of upgrade perspective in CX
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Join Date: Aug 2010
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Friendly reminder of upgrade perspective in CX
This is reprinted from the HKAOA's update of 26 May 2010.
One of our members has provided us with the results of some painstaking work sifting through the seniority list, namely a table showing the number of crew reaching age 65 per year, from now until the last of our current crew reach age 65.
The table shows that we have a very young crew profile. The effect is obvious; far from RA65 having little effect on time to command, as the DFO once famously said, there is potentially a very long wait for command. A brand new joiner today, taking his position on the bottom of the seniority list, would wait until 2036 until he reached a seniority position of 968 (the number of captains today) - 26 years to command.
To calculate your own approximate time to command, start with your current position on the seniority list, deduct 968, and that gives you the number of retirements you require before you reach command. For example, if you are number 1500 on the seniority list, you require 532 (1500-968) retirements; you would therefore expect to upgrade in 2026.
Of course, this is a very basic analysis, and makes some big assumptions, as detailed below.
1. Not all crew are on CoS08 (with RA65); many, particularly FOs and SOs, remain on CoS99 (with RA55). However, it is likely that there will be a migration over time of crew to RA65, either voluntarily or through legal recourse.
2. Not all crew will remain to age 65 even if they are on CoS08; some will decide to leave early, and some will be forced to do so through medical retirement.
3. A number of current captains are distributed throughout the seniority list, rather than being at the top of the list. Whilst the total number of captains is 968, the "passenger command" seniority level (and remember all future commands are in seniority) is around the 930 mark, there are freighter-only captains spread throughout the seniority list. There are also Cat D FOs both above and below this magic level.
Perhaps most importantly, this analysis does not take account of any expansion in the airline. Expansion has a very significant leveraging effect, accelerating command in times of growth, and stifling it in times of retrenchment. Our senior FOs know this only too well; in 2008 we lurched from a period of significant expansion to none at all, with the effect that command training virtually stopped, and time to command increased substantially.
We have approximately 20 aircraft on firm order at present, but this must be balanced with the removal of aircraft from the fleet. We already know that we are giving BCFs to Air China, and A330s to Dragonair (we say this without prejudice to the discussions on scope currently underway); it is possible that some of the arriving B777-300ERs will be used to replace, rather than supplement, the older B747-400s. So a net increase of perhaps 15 aircraft, with between 8 and 9 captains per aircraft, gives an additional requirement for maybe 130 captains - driving the total number of captains out to approximately 1100.
These aircraft are firm orders originally for delivery through to 2012. We do not know the details of any delivery delays which were negotiated during the recession, but it is unlikely that these deliveries are much beyond 2013 or early 2014. Obviously we have a significant number of options over and above the firm orders, but until these options translate into something more positive, we cannot make any predictions based on them.
So what does this analysis tell us about our prospects for a pay rise? On a basic supply and demand level, we will need some 450 new pilots (15 aircraft, 30 pilots per aircraft) within the next two years. There are undoubtedly pilots out there, looking for jobs, so presumably Cathay Pacific will have little trouble finding them. Persuading them to come, and then to stay, is a different matter. The pilot arriving tomorrow needs 1360 (2460-1100) retirements before he gets his shot at command (allowing for firm aircraft orders, but not for future orders) - and he can expect that to occur in 2035. Yes, there will probably be a larger fleet in the future, which will bring down time to command, but even if we were to order another 100 aircraft (and generously allowing for 900 commands) will only bring that command forward to 2025. We have already had a foretaste of how new recruits may react - during 2008 the rate of resignations from Cathay Pacific, particularly amongst those who had been here under a year, rose very significantly (and the Company reaction was to raise the UFO pay scale as a result).
Ask yourself, would you embark on a career with an airline with the prospects of such a long time to command?
Year Retirements Cumulative Retirements
2011 5 5
2012 8 13
2013 11 24
2014 12 36
2015 20 56
2016 27 83
2017 20 103
2018 24 127
2019 44 171
2020 58 229
2021 53 282
2022 51 333
2023 58 391
2024 57 448
2025 58 506
2026 47 553
2027 70 623
2028 62 685
2029 73 758
2030 76 834
2031 81 915
2032 101 1016
2033 129 1145
2034 137 1282
2035 132 1414
2036 148 1562
2037 125 1687
2038 110 1797
2039 104 1901
2040 95 1996
2041 75 2071
2042 77 2148
2043 77 2225
2044 57 2282
2045 46 2328
2046 42 2370
2047 28 2398
2048 23 2421
2049 8 2429
2050 19 2448
2051 6 2454
2052 2 2456
2053 3 2459
2054 1 2460
(sorry about the formatting of the table, but you get the gist)
One of our members has provided us with the results of some painstaking work sifting through the seniority list, namely a table showing the number of crew reaching age 65 per year, from now until the last of our current crew reach age 65.
The table shows that we have a very young crew profile. The effect is obvious; far from RA65 having little effect on time to command, as the DFO once famously said, there is potentially a very long wait for command. A brand new joiner today, taking his position on the bottom of the seniority list, would wait until 2036 until he reached a seniority position of 968 (the number of captains today) - 26 years to command.
To calculate your own approximate time to command, start with your current position on the seniority list, deduct 968, and that gives you the number of retirements you require before you reach command. For example, if you are number 1500 on the seniority list, you require 532 (1500-968) retirements; you would therefore expect to upgrade in 2026.
Of course, this is a very basic analysis, and makes some big assumptions, as detailed below.
1. Not all crew are on CoS08 (with RA65); many, particularly FOs and SOs, remain on CoS99 (with RA55). However, it is likely that there will be a migration over time of crew to RA65, either voluntarily or through legal recourse.
2. Not all crew will remain to age 65 even if they are on CoS08; some will decide to leave early, and some will be forced to do so through medical retirement.
3. A number of current captains are distributed throughout the seniority list, rather than being at the top of the list. Whilst the total number of captains is 968, the "passenger command" seniority level (and remember all future commands are in seniority) is around the 930 mark, there are freighter-only captains spread throughout the seniority list. There are also Cat D FOs both above and below this magic level.
Perhaps most importantly, this analysis does not take account of any expansion in the airline. Expansion has a very significant leveraging effect, accelerating command in times of growth, and stifling it in times of retrenchment. Our senior FOs know this only too well; in 2008 we lurched from a period of significant expansion to none at all, with the effect that command training virtually stopped, and time to command increased substantially.
We have approximately 20 aircraft on firm order at present, but this must be balanced with the removal of aircraft from the fleet. We already know that we are giving BCFs to Air China, and A330s to Dragonair (we say this without prejudice to the discussions on scope currently underway); it is possible that some of the arriving B777-300ERs will be used to replace, rather than supplement, the older B747-400s. So a net increase of perhaps 15 aircraft, with between 8 and 9 captains per aircraft, gives an additional requirement for maybe 130 captains - driving the total number of captains out to approximately 1100.
These aircraft are firm orders originally for delivery through to 2012. We do not know the details of any delivery delays which were negotiated during the recession, but it is unlikely that these deliveries are much beyond 2013 or early 2014. Obviously we have a significant number of options over and above the firm orders, but until these options translate into something more positive, we cannot make any predictions based on them.
So what does this analysis tell us about our prospects for a pay rise? On a basic supply and demand level, we will need some 450 new pilots (15 aircraft, 30 pilots per aircraft) within the next two years. There are undoubtedly pilots out there, looking for jobs, so presumably Cathay Pacific will have little trouble finding them. Persuading them to come, and then to stay, is a different matter. The pilot arriving tomorrow needs 1360 (2460-1100) retirements before he gets his shot at command (allowing for firm aircraft orders, but not for future orders) - and he can expect that to occur in 2035. Yes, there will probably be a larger fleet in the future, which will bring down time to command, but even if we were to order another 100 aircraft (and generously allowing for 900 commands) will only bring that command forward to 2025. We have already had a foretaste of how new recruits may react - during 2008 the rate of resignations from Cathay Pacific, particularly amongst those who had been here under a year, rose very significantly (and the Company reaction was to raise the UFO pay scale as a result).
Ask yourself, would you embark on a career with an airline with the prospects of such a long time to command?
Year Retirements Cumulative Retirements
2011 5 5
2012 8 13
2013 11 24
2014 12 36
2015 20 56
2016 27 83
2017 20 103
2018 24 127
2019 44 171
2020 58 229
2021 53 282
2022 51 333
2023 58 391
2024 57 448
2025 58 506
2026 47 553
2027 70 623
2028 62 685
2029 73 758
2030 76 834
2031 81 915
2032 101 1016
2033 129 1145
2034 137 1282
2035 132 1414
2036 148 1562
2037 125 1687
2038 110 1797
2039 104 1901
2040 95 1996
2041 75 2071
2042 77 2148
2043 77 2225
2044 57 2282
2045 46 2328
2046 42 2370
2047 28 2398
2048 23 2421
2049 8 2429
2050 19 2448
2051 6 2454
2052 2 2456
2053 3 2459
2054 1 2460
(sorry about the formatting of the table, but you get the gist)
