Some thoughts for Wannabes

[Safen Up]

After perusing the Wannabes threads I thought I would add some balance to this forum. Much of it is a mad rush of posts about who is at what stage in the application process, what are the terms and conditions etc The responses seem to be a mix of truths, half truths and some outright bs. In the frenzy of applying for airline jobs one can easily get caught up in the moment and forget the real reasons that you are doing this. Unfortunately many do it because it is expected by family or friends, or maybe that is what everyone else is doing. What follows are some thoughts on the future trends in aviation. I have based it all on logic and have tried to avoid emotional arguements. I hope to balance the flurry of the moment with some hard long term truths: so that whoever reads this asks themselves, 'is this airline pilot thing really for me after all?'

• The world is running out of oil. Whatever replaces oil will not have the same calorific value. None of the bioblends being tested now even approach what you can get from the same unit of Avtur. This means that planes will not be be able to fly as far or carry as much with the new fuels. This will mean flying will become expensive. The days of low cost airtravel will eventually come to an end and flying will be the preserve of the relatively wealthy.

• Expensive flying combined with the globalisation of the aviation industry will place enormous cost pressures on airlines. Some will not survive and the survivors will cut costs. One of the major controllable costs is staff pay. You can expect enormous downward pressure on your wages. Don't expect your pay to increase with inflation. This is not the future, this is what is happening right now at the airline most of you are applying for. It is also the major reason for the international cadet program as enormous savings will be made on not having to give a housing allowance. Airlines will look to the so called 'second world' for low cost pilots. These people will be highly skilled but paid very little in Hong Kong terms. They will maintain families in places like South America, China and parts of Africa, and will consider themselves well paid compared to the opportunities in those places.

• You will most likely work until you are 65. This sounds like a long way, but everyday you are getting a little closer. In 20 years you will most likely have a family and be committed to aviation. It is hard to change careers when you have mouths to feed. You will have to consider what the aviation industry will be like in 20 years and beyond.

• You have options. Flying may seem like everything now. But when you have been doing long haul for a few decades, it may start to wear thin. Ask yourself if you are able to satisfy your love of flying on the weekends. You are probably quite smart and could make a good life in another field, one which is not under the same pressures aviation is.

These are just some thoughts. Sometimes it can be hard to see the forrest from the trees when all you can see is a big shiney jet. Have a hard think about this flying game and if after some reflection you still want to do it, then go for it. If you have doubts, then don't rush in and sell yourself short.

[midagecrisis]

well said. I agree most of your points. We need to think thrice about our "motive" for joinning an industry.

There is a quote in Chinese (Cantonese more exactly): you will hate the industry you're working in. and all my fds claim their professions a sunset industry (legal, construction and etc....)

About the oil problem, I would say there is still time.

What will happen in 20 yrs? No one knows. But we need to prepare against the rainy days. And this 20-yr rule also applies to other "profession" like health, accountancy, social welfare etc...

Applicants: Do think about your motives for applying for the pilot post.

[FL999]

Totally agree with your post. Personally im not applying for the money and glory. The glory's nearly gone anyway and the money will soon follow. Im here cause I love flying and I love aviation. As long as I earn enough to live I'll be fine with it. Don need no Mercedes or Penthouse in the city. Considering where I come from I dont think it gets any worse anyway. Its all about perspective. What might be an awful life and and awful salary to some are actually a major step forward for others, like me. I do understand your reasoning but I prefer this to the 8-5 routine I am currently in(bloody hating it). eventually the time will come when it will really be hard to survive in the industry but I think every sensible guy would have a back-up plan by then. I have a backup plan in mind but cant put it into action until the first plan works out because i am financially tied. Anyway I think we're going through a period when only people who have the flying 'virus' will manage and thats not such a bad thing after all.

[Sir Donald]

What a thread.
Can I ask, is it due to another sleepless night after ulh?Or reflection on one self about the road not taken?
Either way the economist in you is beckoning.
With that sort of prescience the likes of Morgan Stanley and the likes will reward you with something out of this world. Especially how the investment banks employ meteorologists to help them with decisions, you and your ability stand a grand chance so I would say go for it. just take a look at Sir Fred from RBS.If he can make it anyone can.

[SIC]

Im here cause I love flying and I love aviation. As long as I earn enough to live I'll be fine with it. Don need no Mercedes or Penthouse in the city

Big mistake buddy.

The only people I know who manage to stay in an industry lifelong because they 'love' it and never mind the fact that the industry abuses them in return are priests. And they apparently get to go to heaven for their sacrifice.

What exactly do you expect in return for your willingness to work for cheap??

Do not make the mistake of confusing love for something with reward for doing it.

[Safen Up]

Sir Donald,

My original field was economics and flying came relatively late for me. What spurred me to put pen to paper was a friends son asking some advice about the flying thing. I thought I better have a good think about this before I send a young impressionable lad on potentially the wrong path. Got me thinking, so I had a look at the Wannabes thread and decided I would spread my thoughts a bit wider.

[FL999]

What exactly do you expect in return for your willingness to work for cheap??

Thats not what I said, or not what I meant actually. Not for cheap, but I dont expect to be a millionaire by flying. I didnt say I would be willing to fly big jets and go home and eat pot noodles. All we're saying here is that its becoming a very hard job, conditions wise(Thats what I understood) and not many people are willing to make that sacrifice. I for one am willing to. I currently work everyday from 8 to 5, granted its not ax extremely hard job but im getting paid peanuts and have to live with that awful routine. Ive met a lot of pilots and some of them I see nearly every week at my local RCM Aircraft club and they too complain a lot . And god knows my local airline is one of the worse in terms of conditions. THey warned me about the downisdes but also told me they wouldnt want to be doing anything else and dont regret one bit their choice even if sometimes you're treated like crap. I am aware that its a very difficult industry to be in at the moment but thats what I want to do. Dont get me wrong I will not fly for cheap but Im not expecting to become a millionaire either.

[midagecrisis]

Sir Donald,

My original field was economics and flying came relatively late for me. What spurred me to put pen to paper was a friends son asking some advice about the flying thing. I thought I better have a good think about this before I send a young impressionable lad on potentially the wrong path. Got me thinking, so I had a look at the Wannabes thread and decided I would spread my thoughts a bit wider.

May I ask why you changed profession, even at a relatively late age?

of course, it's really good to see your "inspiring" post.

[Sir Donald]

Your friend's son should know by now why he should become a pilot. And since he doesn't then that would shine through at the selection and you and him would have done yourselves a favor so please do not tarnish everyone with the same brush ole chap on why they should/shouldn't join. My boy will fly and I will not discourage him only because he was bought up around aeroplanes and loves aeroplanes for aeroplanes and not because of other ulterior misinformed motives.

[CaptainGSR]

In the grand scheme of things and after looking at many other industries. I still recommend giving Cathay a chance.

It is not all green out there.

[gauravprakash007i]

@ Safen Up - Very nice post Sir!

[Safen Up]

Sir Donald, I think you may have misunderstood me. In my reply to your query about my past, I said that I would think carefully before sending someone down the wrong path. You have assumed that when I said the wrong path, it meant don't become I pilot. This is not so.

The wrong path is doing something, whether that be a lion tamer, banker or pilot, without thinking carefully about it, weighing up the pros and cons and deciding that you are then still passionate about doing it. In this case, the young man was in his final year of engineering at uni and was discussing 'career options' with me. I asked if he had ever taken a flying lesson, or planned to, and he said no. I then said that there would be sacrifices with being a pilot, that he would be away from home etc, you know the picture. I also said that if he wasn't passionate about it enough to go off and take some flying lessons, then he was potentially making a big mistake. I wanted him to know that becoming a pilot should not be viewed as just another career option. If he had said, yes, I love flying and I have taken some lessons/or plan to and again after hearing the pros and cons he still wanted to do it. I would have shown him all the different paths to becoming a pilot and told him to go for it. The reason I posted here was not to tell everyone to not become a pilot. The reason is to get some balance to a forum that can easily lose the big picture in the fury of threads about applications. As you said, your son has been around aviation all his life and thats what he wants to do and I totally agree with you for supporting him in that decision.

[Bwatchful]

Safen up: do you honestly think that anything you say in this forum will balance a young person's desire to fly an airplane (and actually get paid for it ) ? Especially a big shiny 2 aisle jet that flies to far away exotic lands. Most of the new applicants would live in the back of the hangar and eat noodles for the privilege of making their captain's bunk. If you are looking for balance, go to the Fragrant Harbour forum, they'll give you balance. In the meantime, let the wannabes talk their talk and dream their dreams. Don't you get it, it's all part of the process.

[johnnybgoode]

Nicely put! Everyone was there at some stage. I cant say that what i do is the best thing on the planet, but it sure as hell beats some other jobs. Yes it is hard to get out of aviation once you in it, but i think that is true for a lot of occupations. Regarding oil reserves - technology in this department is developing every day, im sure in 20years there will be solutions for todays problems.
JBG

[AAIGUY]

Everyone was there, but it was something to aim for before.
Solid job, good benefits, respect.

Now you're all wetting your pants over coming to one of the most expensive places on the planet (and most pollutted), to work on conditions that are unteniable. They know you'll work for almost nothing.. thats why they've lowered the package. That doesn't help anyone, especially yourself.

So you sit there are say, well if I don't apply, then someone else will..
absolutely right.

So let them.

Don't make a poor choice cause it seems popular.

[Crazyworld]

Oh, is this the Fragrant Harbour wannabes I have visited before ?
it seems has picked up its long lost crowd again. You guys are right, the industry is going narrow, niche, tiny those words all for describing small or highly speciialise. etc. people out there would probably ask you what else can you do if you are being or being not pilot, What do you think about those guys eventually come up with the answer saying " I do not know". And I would probably tell you in the day of current circumstance within region, hiring pilots through global cadets maybe is one of good solution not much choices though. By the way, I still not quite clear what exactly you need to sacrifices to being a commercial airline pilot, could anyone give me a career talk please.

[T-Mass]

Sacrifice? Income, sleep, family life, self-respect. Start with those. But I'm sugar-coating things

[FL999]

We've all gotta start somewhere. I dont think you should start in a field, whatever it may be, expecting a massive salary and a superb package. You gotta start from the bottom and work your way up. I know a lot of pilots with LLBs and other degrees and qualifications and yet they're still flying....why arent they doing something else which apparently pays better and comes with a better package and job security?! One thing's for sure, not many fields can brag about not being hit by the downturn. Its everywhere the same, people are losing their jobs everyday. If someday there is another shortage of pilots, management may see their strategies back-fire and things might get better but for now we've gotta cope. Im not saying we should work for free but we cannot expect too much as we begin(since this is a thread about wannabees).