Safety, CRM, QA & Emergency Response Planning A wide ranging forum for issues facing Aviation Professionals and Academics

Average number of mistakes on each flight

Old 21st May 2019, 16:17
  #1 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Earth
Posts: 15
Average number of mistakes on each flight

Hi all

I had read somewhere a report which mentioned that an average airline pilot makes X number of mistakes on every flight - as long as those mistakes are identified, incidents and accidents can be avoided.

I can't remember where this was. Anyone has any idea?
CaptainGrizzly is offline  
Old 21st May 2019, 17:30
  #2 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Bristol
Posts: 157
I think is was Hawkins in 'Human Factors in Flight' mentioned a study of the error when dialing telephone numbers. With a task such as flying an aircraft it might be difficult quantifying errors.
anchorhold is offline  
Old 26th May 2019, 06:59
  #3 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: N/A
Posts: 2,672
Here you go Grizzly

https://human-factors.arc.nasa.gov/p...010-216396.pdf
megan is offline  
Old 26th May 2019, 09:56
  #4 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Earth
Posts: 15
Thanks Megan
CaptainGrizzly is offline  
Old 30th May 2019, 13:21
  #5 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Frankfurt
Posts: 9
Error rate per flight

i ran some LOSA projects a couple of years back. In one survey of 180-ish flights the error rate was 6/sector. In another survey looking at flight through the WOCL the rate was 10/sector. If you look at the range, we were seeing anything from 2-22/sector. No sector was error free.
Adrift is offline  
Old 31st May 2019, 17:08
  #6 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Wherever I go, there I am
Age: 38
Posts: 643
i ran some LOSA projects a couple of years back. In one survey of 180-ish flights the error rate was 6/sector. In another survey looking at flight through the WOCL the rate was 10/sector. If you look at the range, we were seeing anything from 2-22/sector. No sector was error free.
That matches pretty close from the LOSA I was involved with a year or two ago, about 6 to 10 per sector, with some flights reaching into the mid-twenties.
+TSRA is offline  
Old 31st May 2019, 17:13
  #7 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: A place in the sun
Age: 77
Posts: 718
That is why the concept of the 'self-healing cockpit' is so valid. We all make mistakes, the issue is to recognise them and correct them in good time. All good crews do that.
Bergerie1 is online now  
Old 2nd Jun 2019, 16:17
  #8 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: An Island Province
Posts: 1,056
CaptainGrizzley,
It would be interesting to understand why the reference is required, and how it would be used.

The quote ‘as long as those mistakes are identified, incidents and accidents can be avoided’ is open to interpretation. Normal operations can withstand many mistakes, some activities might rely on ‘mistakes’ for efficient operation. With identification, the quote qualifies outcome with ‘can’ be avoided, without assurance of success.

Also there could be a hidden assumption that all relevant mistakes will be detected, or if detected why whom, who judges relevance, consequence. The mistakes with consequence are those of interest, are the consequences significant or not, again who and how is this judged.

Sounds like Hollnagel, ‘what you find is what you look for’.




alf5071h is offline  
Old 2nd Jun 2019, 18:14
  #9 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Earth
Posts: 15
Was having a casual discussion with fellow pilots and someone mentioned this study. Was looking for reference to confirm what was said.
CaptainGrizzly is offline  
Old 3rd Jun 2019, 07:54
  #10 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: An Island Province
Posts: 1,056
Thanks CG,
Hawkins discusses error rate, but not the implications about detection and safety.
He considers the question of a normal error rate, but not in terms of an average pilot.
Also, the emphasis is on consequence.

The NASA paper aligns with LOSA, which in its purist sense is limited by view point, who judges # 8.

alf5071h is offline  
Old 13th Jun 2019, 07:13
  #11 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Canada
Age: 49
Posts: 11
To err is human. To identify and rectify errors in a fluid, fast moving environment whilst hanging out of your backside is superhuman.
Humpmedumpme is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.