Total lack of scientific approach
 

The closing down of European air space and airports is a dreadful knee-jerk reaction brought upon us all by politicians. There is no proper collection and processing of scientific data to support the measures.

Are air samples collected from the allegedly contaminated FLs at hourly (or, at least, regular) intervals? Obviously not, or we would have this data being released on an ongoing basis.

The people inflicting this chaos on us are, in fact, flying blind with all instruments turned off. Dreadful, absolutely dreadful.

Fakem:

1. The precautionary principle applies, especially to things that might involve life. The Volcanic Ash is regarded as dangerous to aircraft UNTIL it is proved scientifically that the risk is insignificant NOT the other way around as you suggest.

2. Politicians do not shoot from the hipthey make decisions on the basis of ADVICE they receive from public servants. I would imagine that public servants, mindful of the precautionary principle, asked for scientific advice on the level of risk, and failing receiving a ringing endorsement from the appropriate engineers and scientists for opening the skies, they applied the precautionary principle themselves.

To put it another way:

I know your holiday plans are in tatters. There is nothing anyone can do about it until the evidence is in that indicates it's safe to fly.

Avoid the ash at different FLs?
 

Hi all,

Massively interesting reading your thoughts on all this. Quite a range of opinions, but all well-informed, which makes a nice change from the front pages of the tabloid at least!

My question that I haven't really heard is this: the ash is mostly at quite high altitude, right? Couldn't the airlines therefore simply fly beneath it? I do realise that because of the increased density at lower FLs this would require greater fuel to generate greater thrust to overcome resistance, and would therefore be more expensive... but would it be prohibitive? Would the ATCs be set up to deal with this?

Apologies if this is a stupid question, or well answered elsewhere.

Cheers all.

Eurocrats?
 

Thai announced a sensible solution yesterday extra daily flights to Rome & making Madrid a daily service.
However almost at once had to can the idea.
Quote
"Due to uncontrolled situation change at Rome and Madrid airports, the planned TEMPORARY additional flights have been put on hold until further notice."
Who threw a spanner in the works.?

But unfortunately what will happen is a fudge whereby flying will start without either the cloud dispersing or any scientific evidence to show that the ban was sensible in the first place.

Another thought for you....

If you intentionally go flying through this ash cloud on a revenue flight and something happens (major or minor) who is to blame for it?

Answer: The Captain.

The Captain at the end of the day takes fully "legal" responsibility for his aircraft and in a court of law he would be fined/imprisonment/loss of job.

We have no legal protection if we knowingly fly through a known ash cloud cloud. It's not the company that would get fined (hmm they would be liable as well - probably).

Food for thought - Is it worth the risk?

50% ban lifted? (whatever that means....)
 

Just reported.

Eurocontrol lifts aviation ban; 50% of flights to resume | The National Business Review - New Zealand - business, markets, finance, politics, property, technology and more

Ultimately it is the composition of the volcanic ash that is of real importance to the question of flying in the presence of ash clouds. To be more specific it is the amount of silica in the ash that might ingested and remelted in an aircraft engine that is of key significance.

The colour of the plume gives some clues to this key question but is of itself not very revealing.

Volcanic Ash, What it can do and how to minimize damage

NOAA Economics of Volcanic Ash & Dust Storm Data and Products | Commerce & Transportation | Extreme Events

I don't think anyone will suggest knowingly flying through a known ash cloud. If flying is allowed then it will be with the approval of the regulatory bodies acting on advice from whatever source they deem fit. Clearly they are trying to avoid such a scenario as you suggest as they in the first place stopped all the flying.

Cam Snapper

Actually, at the beginning it was at high levels, but over the first few days, it settled to below FL 350. It further settled to Earth and showed up as dust over England. So, the problem was at lower levels, climb and initial cruise. Final cruise levels for short haul.

GF

Sunfish: my holiday plans are not affected.

However, if the politicians have - as you suggest - scientifically significant data showing the ash concentration at various FLs across Europe, why do we not know about it?

All else is a knee-jerk reaction to a perceived threat. The correct measure is to ascertain whether the perception is backed up by hard facts. That is not being done anywhere in Europe - except through private initiative.

That air space might be initially closed while we are waiting for results from statistically sound sampling is OK. However, I repeat, there is NO sampling going on that we know about.

The volcano pulsates the ash to different heights. So in answer to your question: no.

Besides, what goes up must come down. Gravity and all that.

Thirdly, planes must keep to a flight path - they don't keep ducking and diving. The ash cloud is irregular.

Ratio Changing
 

Well is seems the the Dollar : Danger ratio is changing.

The airlines seem to be applying pressure in two directions.
Test flights by LH, KLM & BA to show the bureaucrats it's safe.
Presence onboard of BA and KLM chief execs to convince the public it will be safe for them to fly too.

Interesting to see what the US will do when the ash reaches them this evening, will they close down, limit/reroute or just carry on as normal...

Ash cloud hits Turkey, Istanbul's airports stay open *updates*
 

tourismandaviation.com

Massive ash clouds from a volcanic eruption in Iceland have reached Turkey, forcing the shutdown of airspace over three provinces in the country's north, the air authority says.

"The volcanic ash clouds have begun affecting the airspace of our country," the Directorate of Civil Aviation Ali Arıduru said in a statement on monday. Airspace at an altitude between 20,000 and 35,000 feet over the Black Sea provinces of Zonguldak, Sinop and Samsun will be closed till noon wenzday, it said.

For the time being the ash will not likely to affect airspace over Istanbul, Turkey's largest city and the hub of its domestic and international air traffic, and it will stay open without restrictions, directorate head Ali Ariduru told Anatolia news agency.

Europe-wide air turmoil caused by the ash cloud has stranded thousands of foreign tourists in Turkey, a major holiday destination for Europeans, and thousands more have been unable to arrive for scheduled vacations.

On the country's Mediterranean coast, hotels offered extended stays for stranded holiday-makers, with hoteliers, tour operators and airlines jointly picking up the tab, Sururi Corabatir, head of the Mediterranean Hoteliers Union, said in remarks published on Saturday.

Hotels in Istanbul struggled to meet the increased demand for rooms, media reports said, adding that unused compounds at the city's main airport were opened to stranded passengers who were given also blankets and food.

I think the problem is that Rome and Madrid can't cope with more people, I know someone stuck in Rome who has accommodation until Wednesday, then no guarantees. Until the UK Government announce measures to get people out, then it is pointless bringing more people into areas where they can't get out of.

Ash forecast change
 

Do I notice that the forecast for the ash area from a couple of days ago covered a much much larger area of Europe than the actual ash map now issued 1 hour ago.

After airlines are calling for the ban to be lifted, I wonder if the economic implications of closed airspace has 'shrunk' the ash cloud?

Maybe I've over analysed it.;)

If flights do not resume right now (and yes there will be the inevitible long term damage to some aircraft engines) and this continues for the next month, Western society as we know it and a lot of the third world which depends on it is going down the pan. What's worse? Having a few lost engines or saving the livlihoods of millions. Difficult question as usual, needs someone with more than just an interest in aviation safety to answer.

Yeah. Al Fakhem is right. Once the call to shut all airspace came more should have been done. I would have thought the country's brightest minds would be mobilised. I would expect scientists out with hand vacs colecting settled ash. RAF Tornados up testing the air. I would have expected met balloons going up like a swarm of bees. So far...... A dornier 228 buzzing around and the initiative of a couple of airline bosses.

...or maybe the Knee-jerk reflexes have finally exhausted themselves?
...or maybe enough real data has been collected to give the 'authorities' sufficient confidence to offer risk-based advice rahter than 'CYA and let someone else make the first move' stuff seen so far.

Still don't see much more CONCERTED ACTION to collect more data about the EXTENT and PARTICLE DENSITIES of the ash cloud. This was mentioned several times yesterday. Point to point flights by single aircraft are (usually) more to do with PR than serious scientific data collection. At least UK sems to have had TWO science-based flights - 'Swindon-based' NERC plane (flying from ??) and Cranfield. We should have AT LEAST five aircraft, doing several flights a day EACH on different tracks with different planned ash exposure, if there was any proper programme to collect data about the changing position and height of various components of the ash cloud AND the longer-term effect on turbines.