I wonder if Willy Whatsit is enjoying 1st Class cabin service on the BA airtest

How bout sushi? Volcano roll??
Sorry, couldn't resist.

Hi!

All of Norway will probably be open in a couple of hours time.(Westcoast and mid/north already open)
SAS have scheduled some flights from US to Oslo, arriving in morning.
IAD, EWR allready scheduled and probably aircrafts at ORD will come too.

Guess also more intercontinental flights bound for i.e Stockholm, Copenhagen probably will use Oslo as alternate. Anyone know something abouth this?

Looks good for a whole day of full ops in Norway tomorrow, with closure again next day probably.

Reagrds
Final Vectors
Oslo APP

News Conference outside 10 Downing St.
 

News conference outside 10 Downing St has just finished.

Lord Adonis stated that no flights will be made in next 24 hours in UK airspace (other than the test flights).

Lord Mandelson also spoke & stated that Gordon Brown will be talking to his opposite number in Spain tonight with a plan to set-up an "air-bridge" via Madrid Airport to help facilitate bringing back stranded passengers, then transfer from there back to UK by train, coach or ferry.

Evening all,

If this query/question has already been banded around, I apologise. Not going to read 60 odd pages of threads :)

With the volcanic ash, we all know the ins and outs of what it does to the engines. What i'm also concerned about is, what effect this ash has on us flight crews? What happens to this ash when it passes through the compressor, ingested into the packs, then thrown into the flight deck and cabin? We all know how sensitive these pack systems are to contamination, and with toxic fumes being such a hot topic!!!!!!!

Just a question

Keep safe.

did press conference say 50% of flights in Europe tomorrow or 50% of airspace ? 2 different things

BAW9156 passed overhead (Brecon Beacons) about half an hour ago at approx 25,000ft requesting 30,000ft.

No contrails, just a gentle rumble that has been missed over the last few days!!

Where will this all end? Aircraft operators have effectively been banned from flying in UK airspace by a combination of NATS, the Met Office (BBQ summer fiasco last year) and presumably the DfT.

It's very easy to play the safety card, but will NATS be stopping operators getting airborne that are flying into other parts of the world that are subject to volcanic activity? You can't fly to Barbados because you'll be flying close to Montserrat, Sicily is banned as well. No flights from the UK to Indonesia, just in case. After all, you can never be too safe. If this continues, they will be closing airports because the crosswind is forecast to get breezy or a CB is nearby.

Somebody, somewhere, hit the big red panic button. We went from a minor news story in northern Scotland to complete lock-down of London within a couple of hours. The problem they have now, is how to get things back to normal without losing face. And public confidence.

50% of airspace..

The safest option is always to not allow anyone to fly :ugh:

One might wonder if zee Govt is in a better position to make that decision than the Companies, the pilots and the PAX.

Spain's secretary of state for EU affairs said on Sunday it was possible that 50% of flights in Europe could operate on Monday.

"The forecast is that there will be half of flights possibly operating tomorrow. It will be difficult; that's why we have to coordinate," Diego Lopez Garrido, whose country holds the European Union presidency, told reporters after a meeting at European aviation control agency Eurocontrol.

I stand corrected BBC have reported it as 50% of airspace and not 50% of flights as Sky News did.

Risk management factors
 

Digitalis' post pointed out two very sensible points of view which appear to be at the poles of opinion. It is not possible to fly with no risk, but from what I can see there are many factors which influence the decision to fly again and there is not much in the way of the degree of risk attributed to each factor.

I cannot ascribe any degree of importance to the risk, corporate and political factors as this situation is unprecedented but the eventual situation is going to be a compromise between these factors. There may be others too.

1. Short term risk of an aircraft crashing. Probably one which flew into a heavy ash plume and flamed out.
2. Medium term damage leading to an aircraft accident. Possibly ash into engines and airframes degrading the performance of the aircraft.
3. Long term unserviceability of aircraft due to ash damage which require airframe replacement earlier than anticipated by business models.
4. Passenger confidence in the short term, possibly delineated by the ones wanting to desperately get home no matter what and those who will not get on an aircraft under any circumstances in the prevailing conditions.
5. Medium term passenger confidence. If a major fatality accident occurs which is attributable to ash then confidence will decline suddenly. It may also be affected by a near miss like Capt Moody's flight.
6. Financial pressures leading to a short term degradation of flight safety. WW may decide to get on an aircraft which may take off and land safely but this may not reflect operational conditions. There is no way on God's green earth that if the aircraft test flown so far had significant damage that this would be made known in the short term.
7. Political pressures in the short term may lead to degradation of flight safety. Especially in the UK with an election looming, it may be expedient to get stranded passengers home at some degree of risk.
8. Medium term financial pressures possibly a combination of the volcanic issues, plus fuel cost, plus banking problems, plus financial confidence in an airline may lead to risk taking.
9. The potential of the ash to cause damage is largely unquantified. It may be sharp and glassy but may have different characteristics to the other volcanic eruptions, but the analysis is going to take much longer than the allowances of the pressures listed above my give.

If the volcano continues to erupt at the current rate for a prolonged period (measured in weeks?) or there is a major eruption of another Icelandic volcano then all of the above will be exacerbated.

Let the train take the strain is my personal view.

klm877
 

klm877 left

Elyflyer - just re-listened to the press conference and I think they did say hoping for 50% of flights

Night test flights
 

I see all these test flights are being done in daylight? Is there any merit in taking aircraft up at night? Would the effects be more apparent (st elmos fire etc etc)?

Another KLM flight in air
 

KLM877 left Schiphol for Bangkok

Despite the chaos and havoc it is causing it remains a thing of unreal beauty.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/8...r2010mfull.jpg


http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/3...r2010mfull.jpg

More: SwissEduc: Stromboli Online - Volcanic and glacial landforms of Iceland

At the risk of squandering what little credibility I have by posting on this thread, I need to explain something to some of you....

The fact that someone can make a "Test flight" and return the aircraft in one piece after exposure to some level of volcanic ash proves absolutely nothing. Detailed examination of the hot section of the engine is required, probably right down to the microscopic level and including sectioning of first stage turbine blades and nozzle guide vanes to check the cooling passages for contamination.

I'm not sure what turbine blade life is these days, but it must be of the order of at least 6000 hours plus, and probably well over 10,000 engine hours. If volcanic ash contamination compromises the figures for blade life in the slightest then airlines cannot fly because they are buying themselves a simply massive maintenance cost increase in the future. Furthermore, there would not be enough blade and vane manufacturing capacity available to satisfy demand.

To put it another way, I can take the air filter off my car and still run it up and down the road today and nothing will happen, however I would be wrong to conclude from that experiment that the provision of air filters by the car manufacturer was unnecessary overkill designed merely to boost profits.

To put it another way, If the engines will get their lives shortened by dust contamination, then the aircraft cannot fly, at least not at todays ticket prices anyway.

Having experienced the disruption caused by Fog at Heathrow for a few days years ago, I have a rough idea of the scale of disruption this event is causing. My Son is in Spain at the moment and I have just had to explain to him that there is no way he is getting to England until this clears up, as I imagine that train/bus/ferry systems are overloaded and will remain so. I've also had to explain that if this continues his plans for summer employment in holiday related industry are similarly moot.

..As for those conspiracy theorists and critics of NATS, especially those wondering why there is no "Plan B" to get them to their holiday destinations, I just shake my head in bemusement.

I think that if this continues for another week, even if a few flights are possible, there is going to be a need to ration available seats to essential travel only, and prioritise it to first return stranded people to their homes. I also suspect that some form of Government welfare support is going to be needed for the stranded because I don't think travel insurance covers it (force majeur?) and people must be fast running out of money and credit.

God knows what this will do to the tourism industry around the world, let alone the airlines.

Is there a possibility that once airspace has reopened airlines will fly extra flights to clear the back-log .... or are the main airports already operating at 'slot' capacity ?

Thanks Buckster.

There has certainly been a shift in attitude amongst the powers that be in Europe over the past few hours. The pressure put on them by airlines to allow flights to commence again has obviously had an affect on the recent announcement that 50% of flights might take place tomorrow.

Sadly the UK Government seem to think there is no chance of flights in the UK for at least 24 hours:ugh: