Boeing to Restart 737 MAX Production
 

Just heard this on the radio - Boeing is restarting the production of new 737 MAX aircraft in Renton.
I don't have any inside information, but I can't believe Boeing would take this step unless they had good reason to believe the MAX grounding will be lifted in the near future.

Err, wonder what remaining airlines want to take delivery of any new aircraft? Seems to be a plethora of available types sitting round the globe.

A news item says the Max 8 will not be flying before mid year, that's 1 month away, either Boeing know a lot or they know nothing, you would wonder how could they make sales with business how it is presently.

Maybe they have found another big parking area?

Quite a strange announcement as it comes hours after another one announcing a 13.000 layoff in production in Seattle...and a much earlier one on delivering 777x a the priority .. But as said before maybe they know something we don't...

There'll be a load of narrow body jets that someone could buy up cheaply and set up a low cost carrier if COVID ever goes away

This floated past on twitter - not seen this elsewhere but have no idea if it is correct or otherwise.

"Boeing 737 Max 8 test flight of #SunExpress TC-SOI (Boeing test reg N1779B). BFI PAE BFI as flight BOE301. Pics from 15 May 2020 at PAE. #Boeing#737Max#BoeingMax#737Max8#B737#SunExpress#PAE"

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5ebd00b96.jpeg



Sun Express are Turkish and operate in Turkey and to the EU.

I *think* Sun Express is another trading name/subsidiary of Turkish Airlines - who have a lot of 737's.

The pictured aircraft first flew in April 2019, though as yet undelivered, so no connection with the restart of MAX production.

From FlightGlobal:

I have just had to book a business trip domestic from Florida to Dulles. All the airlines are acting as if getting pax back on the aircraft will be difficult and have reduced their flights to the level that most of the flights are already booked out. I think that the bounce back will be a lot faster than the industry seems to be prepared for. There are several expert assessments that the SARS-CoV-2 virus may just stop. Indeed one vaccine manufacturer in UK says the race is to get a vaccine to human test stage before the cases drop too low to be useful for the test.
The population appears to have split into two groups - the type that would not get in an aircraft now and definitely not in the middle seat as the fear conditioning has been so well done; and, the type that has realized that 95% of the population appears to have innate immunity so do not expect to get sick, and want to fly and get back to working normally. The second type is already trying to fly and is actually being told no flights available!! by the airlines that seem to be convinced that the panicked first group represent 100% of the population.
The first airline to get back to normal operations - perhaps with a mix of 'hypochondriac' flights and 'normal precautions' flights without blocked seats or masks to test the reaction - will become profitable again a lot faster than people expect. The demand for new aircraft will also pick up faster than expected. Provided paranoid politicians don't get in the way, international flights will also pick up rapidly as there is 'pent up demand'. Airlines should not think that recovery will take years this time next year with COVID-19 being rare, demand could easily be back to normal.

I had heard that they anticipated a return to service in the third quarter of this year.
https://www.aviationtoday.com/2020/0...re-validation/

The problem Boeing might be up against with both the suspension of 737 MAX production and Coronavirus shutdowns is a loss of their skilled workforce. Coming up to speed slowly will give them an opportunity to keep their best people while 'cleaning up' their production processes. Layoffs will adjust the workforce to match lower production rates (on all models). Later, as demand returns, the streamlining of shop floor processes may mean that not all who are being laid off will be called back.

Boeing has shut down a few times, but for shorter periods. Just to get paperwork straightened out and regain control of the production schedule. Their processes haven't scaled up very well under high rates in the past. It was one thing to halt 747 production when things were going full tilt. But with slow demand and the certification driven halt, what could be a better use of their time?

Boeing (admittedly under a different CEO) did that quite a few times last year. Share price needs propping up again? :rolleyes:

Suppliers need some credible perspective. And customers too.

I think it's fair to surmise, that Boeing has lost all creditability when it comes to projecting a return to service timeline for the Max.

Ever since the grounding they've peddled the same message every 3 months: In 3 months we'll get the approval and the grounding will be lifted. Well, it hasn't happened yet and to my knowledge neither the FAA, nor EASA or CAAC, have committed to anything or provided guidance as to when RTS may be expected. To exacerbate the situation, as long as there's Covid-19 lockdowns, closed borders and travel bans in place there's simply no way the necessary tasks can be accomplished.

Its a joint venture, Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa

That's great news. Can you post some evidence? Perhaps peer reviewed?

Thanks "His dudeness".

Re A: And this is also great news! First: Sources please. Second: Do you understand the significance if what you say (about the 95%) is true? Hint: It's anything but good news, as relates to current numbers of folks ill in the USA and what that means in the next months and year(s).
Re B: Wanna bet? .

As evidenced by various cruise ships, meat packing plants, prisons, etc, with way more than 5% infected?

Google Heinsberg, Gengelt, Carnival. 15% infected in the region, and I believe 40% of those who attended the carnival.

the German doctor who led the research is Hendrick Streeck. There is a very interesting interview in English with him on YouTube.

CNBC is reporting that Boeing is ready to recertify by end of June.
Boeing to Recertify

That's not quite what the article says - it says complete the cert flight test by the end of June.
A good bet would be another month to six weeks after all testing is successfully completed before FAA approval is granted. So late July to mid August.

$4.3 Trillion in Exportable US GDP

-Max Jet Certification

Does anyone even want or need these planes anymore? With so many planes parked, why pay for a new plane, especially one with this history? With fuel cheap, grab an NG from the desert and fly it till it's due for a D check, then get another one and do it over again.

Let me offer a rare optimistic view (and prediction)...

By late next year, the demand for air travel will be within 10% of what it was last year. But passengers will not longer tolerate the same cramped quarters that they did before COVID-19.
So revenue will be up and total number of planes and ATPs will be up even with somewhat fewer passengers and much fewer seats per plane.

95 % IMMUNE
 

As a physician following this closely, the 95 % innate immunity figure is just not true.

The underlying interpretation problem is one that I see over and over in the modern era of social media....people take an N =1 and extrapolate to the entire population. I can give you a personal example. My 88 yo mother with severe Alzheimers lives in a nursing home. 35 of the residents tested positive for COVID. 5 did not. One could conclude from this study that 15 % have innate immunity. But that would be erroneous. There could be a myriad of other factors here.

There may be individuals with genetic immunity. Trouble is, we don't know who they are, yet.

The second bigger issue is that even when COVID19 is over via herd immunity, immunizations, preventive meds or a combination, will air travel ever be the same ? At least in the US, a plethora of businesses are locked into working from home and Zoom meetings. Face to face board meetings, business pitches etc may be much more rare.

And then there is always the next pathogen....

I wish that were the likely scenario, but it just doesn't seem plausible that a rebound would / could occur that quickly.
First, the figures around job losses mean far fewer people willl have the disposable income to fly for leisure purposes. Even many of the people that have regained or will regain their jobs have suffered BIG income losses this year. Second, substitute "businesses" for "people" and the situation re financial losses is similar. Third, the tickets for those aircraft seats will have to cost more to buy, otherwise those "fewer seats" will not generate enough revenue to make a profit.
Lastly, the only remaining way to mitigate the above is for more gov't assistance (to people, small businesses, and / or airlines). After what all levels of gov't have spent in the past 4 - 5 months on Covid related issues and support, there is simply not going to be sufficient money in the various gov't coffers for a long time.

Here is another google, I shall let others do the math.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...n_cruise_ships

I am not sure if the FAA are intending going alone with the un-grounding the MAX, seen no comment from the other regulators that have voiced concerns.

Reg.: N7201S, B737
Type Desc.:L2J
Squawk:4722

737 Max 7 tooling round Washington State today.

Maybe they do this every day, no idea.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....289fdf6cf9.jpg

737 max re-induction
 

What about EASA approval to fly in EU? Well it is safer in US since the '737 max 8 simulators' -the bone of contention-are only available in US. Can Boeing supply sims to all airlines outside US continent? I doubt

Boeing do not supply the MAX sims, two other independent companies manufacture and sell them.

Most MAX simulators including the one in Ethiopia were outside the US, but I guess they could have sold them to the US.

Whilst I am under a nda, it doesn't cover my entire life. I have physically seen more than 1 fully installed Max Sims outside the US. I have not been to Africa or the Far East for many years. So as one can see some previous posters are not up to speed. As to why they venture outside their realm of knowledge I sometimes take my own cynical view.

On the matter of the thread and it's contents, I have no direct knowledge of when any certifications will be made. One thing I can conjecture is that the FAA alongside Boeing are under pressure from Federal authorities to get the MAX into the marketplace as quickly as possible just solely based on the USA financial positions due to the pandemic.

If I was a betting man I may take a punt that the MAX will be in operation before this year is out.

simulators are produced separately by CAE Inc and Textron Inc’s simulator and training division TRU
Air Canada owns 2 max simulators and has access to a 3rd.

CAE started making more simulators in Jan anticipating a need.

Sadly, I tend to agree with you. I wish the FAA was under more pressure to get the certification process right. There's no short path for that. I'm afraid the traveling public must rely on EASA rather than FAA leadership for aviation safety, at least for the time-being.

The economy (AKA marketplace?) is important to the lives of all of us. But, life, first of all, is important to to our lives. The rush to "get back to normal" is actually counter-productive to restoring our health and our economy.

According to Jon Ostrower (here: Boeing's 737 Max software done, but regulators plot more changes after jet's return) EASA want further changes, either a third AoA sensor or a "synthetic airspeed or equivalent system".
It's not clear to me from the article whether this is a pre-condition to EASA certification of the 737 MAX, or a mandatory Service Bulletin for retrofit.

The Federal Aviation Administration has formally rejected Boeing’s proposal that it not modify nor move wiring bundles in 737 Max airplanes, according to people familiar with the decision. Boeing says the bundles do not pose a potential safety threat. Nevertheless, the FAA has told the company the bundles are “not compliant.”

A spokesperson for Boeing told CNBC: “We remain in ongoing discussions with the FAA on the wire bundles. Regardless of the final determination on this matter our estimate for a mid year return to service of the MAX is unchanged.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/faa-...compliant.html

Old news Bend alot. Boeing has conceded the point and MAX aircraft and are actively retrofitting the aircraft already built. There is a least one team of mechanics at Boeing dedicated to performing the wiring change:
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-layoffs-loom/

Standard procedure is that type certification is highly coordinated between the FAA and EASA and final approval happens at the same time - or at worst a day or two apart. Other cert organizations (e.g. Russian, China, etc.) happen separately and can follow anywhere from days to years later.
However the 737 MAX fiasco has been anything but 'Standard', so who knows (and those who may know are not talking).

Not seen this before. EASA requirements.


Flight tests on a modified B737 max [one full week - at Boeing Flight Test Center]
 MCAS operations (nominal behavior)
 Flight without MCAS (including high speed turns and stall)
 Scenario of stabiliser runaway (uncommanded MCAS activation, manual trim wheel forces)
 Approach to stall with autopilot engaged

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsda...y-original.pdf