Ryanair 737 Max order
 

Does anyone think that Mr.O'Leary will cancel his order for the Boeing 737 Max8s that were ordered some time ago?

Do we think an airline that is not flying will cancel its order for an aircraft that can’t fly?

In today’s mad world, the only thing I can predict with certainty is, the ain’t getting them anytime soon.

And forgo his compensation from Boeing?
I somehow don’t think so!
David

Do you think any order for any new aircraft is currently safe, or going to be delivered per the original schedule?

The stars have aligned. Delay in Max tick. Compensation tick. Retire old aircraft tick. They are safe.

I was curious as to the current progress on the Max's return to the skies or is it doomed ?

Contrary to what the doom and gloom posters around here think, does anyone really believe Boeing will simply scrap ~1,000 new/nearly new aircraft worth ~$100 billion?

With most airlines looking to defer or cancel orders isn’t this the time that O’Leary will be looking to place a big order at a huge discount.

There already in the #1 position, with the most planes in their sector, MOL will remain quiet for a while until he sees which way this thing ends up going. Why would he risk his position at the moment when the future (as of April 8th) is so uncertain?

What I see is this.Max at a discounted price,oil 20-30 dollars a barrel,15% fuel saving on burn,no more pilot shortage,Its an airline accountants dream! O’Leary will not miss this opportunity.The only unknown is when do we start?We have Corona virus,no Max certification,economic downturn.

You are forgetting the income part of the equation...

Eh, just me then?
Is that $ figure the RRP or production price?
Either way it is of no consequence if the market won’t accept the aircraft. That is the problem, how does any airline in the near future advertise their new shiny aircraft with any confidence with its track record?
That’s assuming certification which isn’t there yet.

Any used car dealer will tell you that what you have put into a vehicle has little bearing on what you will get for it, that is determined by the market. Even if the MAX returns to the sky demand for new aircraft will be highly depressed as airlines will be in survival mode with previous expansion plans shelved. A large number of good, used aircraft on the market at the same time from bankrupt or downsizing airlines will put a further dampner on price. With oil around $30 a barrel fuel consumption won't matter so older aircraft will have a life extension.

If they can get the MAX flying again it will only be to realise some of the money spent on the grounded aircraft and reduce the loss. It would be a good chance for an opportunistic purchaser such as Ryanair to replace it's entire fleet at a bargain basement price and sit out the next ten years until Boeing can bring out a B737 replacement. Brand new aircraft would reduce maintenance costs, improve dispatch reliability, and increased fuel efficiency would pay off in the medium term when oil prices recover. With the number of order cancellations likely to come as airlines won't be in a position to take new aircraft and keeping Ryanair in the Boeing camp there could be "buy one, get one free' on offer, Boeing might even give him a few for nothing in order to free up space in the employee car park.

MOL took full advantage of the 9/11 terror attacks to drive Boeing down on price, he may do it again.

Wizzair is going to get 15 new aircraft this year as it was scheduled, so it depends

Looking at post 9-11 I'd say Ryanair will take their aircraft and maybe even upsize their order with whatever becomes available for cheap now. Given that the FAA clears the MAX to fly again what I expect to happen.
Aside from that widebodies are cheap now. This might be the moment for Ryanair to launch their separate long range brand for transatlantic flights. There will be more demand for cheap flights as many people still need to travel but don't have money to burn for luxuries anymore.

I can categorically state that, whatever the situation, I would never fly in a 737 MAX.
And that’s from someone with over 24;000 hours operating Boeings of all types but mainly 747s.

From what I read, there are ~400 with customers and another ~400 in storage. Given we don’t know yet if it will fly again commercially and what future demand for new planes will be, I can see the distinct possibility of recycling some of the stored airframes. Airbus are going to cut production of the 320 Neo by 50% as a background to all this, which shows the seriousness of the situation.

Airbus does some steep fast cut indicating that those MAXes built might finally get delivered. It's just not the airframes it's the crews, the parts, the maintenance licences. Nobody will turn away so easily.

What is it that you know, that the aviation regulatory authorities around the world will miss?

I think that might be for other reasons, such as the lack of demand for air travel for a while as well as the lack of money to pay for shiny new aircraft?

Huh?
 

That's an odd question? You think regulatory authorities around the world know better than an individual's personal choice?? Don't imagine big bro' has reached that level yet.......

remember that Ryanair have not ordered standard MAX's, The Ryanair order is for MAX-200's a design that has an issue beyond that of the "standard" MAX airframes.

https://www.aerotime.aero/ruta.burba...pts-new-delays

A second emergency exit along the aft fuselage and behind the plane’s wings is a special feature of the 737-8-200, ordered by the low-cost giant. The new set of doors was necessary to increase the certified seating capacity on the modified MAX 8.

I would imagine that Boeing would want to get the "standard" MAX off the ground before they focus on the -200.

The MAX 200 is just some stock MAX 8 with another pair of cabin doors. No big deal technically.

apparently not.........

Because of its high-density, the up to 210-seat 737-8-200 variant requires a separate type certificate from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and its European counterpart

and the doors seem to be the issue.......

an unspecified “design issue” related to the second over-wing exit has reportedly prompted this Ryanair-specific delay.

Many future passengers may well themselves "wait" a further period of time even after resumption of flying again before they consider buying a seat on a MAX! Something for Boeing and airlines may have to factor in.

So what else is changed?

Does anyone know what this mysterious, unidentified "design issue" related to the additional door on the Max 8-200 is ?

I expect ryr to order even more. Just like post 9/11, but this time Boeing are properly on their knees.

He already put a tender in for some of the bigger max10s.

Apart from the reply by MC below - it seems the practical evacuation tests required have not been "practical" for a number of years. They have been using some formula to arrive at a number as real evacuations are dangerous.

I expect the calculations will be compared to real evacuation tests now. Would not surprise me if the calculation numbers match a wide body - but not so good on a single aisle aircraft.

Thanks for that laugh. It brightened up my day.

Boeing has lost a lot of trust that I had but personally, after reading some articles where they grandfathered in things, like control cable spacing and other stuff not up to code. In light of all that stuff, I would never fly on a Boeing 737 Max and I'm not too impressed by 787 re fuel tanks and lightning protection not to mention Li ion batteries I won't fly on that one either...my apologies to pilots who fly them but that's my position

The “people” were supposed to know what they were doing before the 2 crashes! I’m afraid it doesn’t give one much faith in the system that was supposed to protect the flying public and keep them safe.

Fitting a new system for trimming an aircraft but forgetting to tell anyone about it it is bad enough, when they do know about it and find out how to deactivate it they cannot trim the aircraft manually. Now it has all been brought into the open it is likely that the only way the Max is going to fly again is if the airframe is modified, which will need certifying, the cost of that is going to be cheaper than scrapping 800 aircraft - isn’t it?.

Fabulous aircraft? When there is a regulator understaffed and relying on the Boeing company certifiers and supervisors to do the regulators checking is why we are here in this situation! Boeing management overruling engineers on safety was sometime going to end in tears, very unfortunate to those whose lives were lost in the 2 accidents. We now here of many other "happenings" in the company Boeing, 787 at Charleston and less said about the 767 tanker aircraft. But Boeing will not be allowed to fail, too many lobbyists.

”Boeing will not be allowed to fail“. That is going to be the reality, it is too big and the US taxpayer is going to have to bail them out. That in itself is going to be problematic because Airbus was had serious issues with accepting state aid, just how it’s all going to be handled is going to be very interesting.

I think it will be under “CV rules”. Boeing will definitely be saved. Who will bail out Airbus?

I’m not so much doubtful if the MAX will fly again as I am as to whether it will be on the same type cert as the NG. If different ratings are required to predecessor, that’s a big impediment.

Would still be a possible opportunity for Ryanair though. If they replaced the NG’s with dirt-cheap new Maxes, (with type-ratings thrown in) they wouldn’t need dual-fleet crews anyway, once the change-over was complete.

The Max can only be certificated if it's on the same TC as all the other 737 variants. There is no way it could be certificated as a new type under current rules.

Returning MAXs to Full Service
 

I think much is going to depend on the FAA's requirements to return the MAXs to full service. For instance, should the FAA require current 737 pilots or MAX pilots to undergo 4 hours of full motion simulator training, as Boeing had once said, the return will be problematic given the number of pilots to be trained and simulator availability worldwide. For example, I have read where American and Southwest Airlines have ~13,000 pilots to train with one available simulator.