Ryanair 737 Max order
 

Does anyone think that Mr.O'Leary will cancel his order for the Boeing 737 Max8s that were ordered some time ago?

Do we think an airline that is not flying will cancel its order for an aircraft that can’t fly?

In today’s mad world, the only thing I can predict with certainty is, the ain’t getting them anytime soon.

And forgo his compensation from Boeing?
I somehow don’t think so!
David

Do you think any order for any new aircraft is currently safe, or going to be delivered per the original schedule?

The stars have aligned. Delay in Max tick. Compensation tick. Retire old aircraft tick. They are safe.

I was curious as to the current progress on the Max's return to the skies or is it doomed ?

Contrary to what the doom and gloom posters around here think, does anyone really believe Boeing will simply scrap ~1,000 new/nearly new aircraft worth ~$100 billion?

With most airlines looking to defer or cancel orders isn’t this the time that O’Leary will be looking to place a big order at a huge discount.

There already in the #1 position, with the most planes in their sector, MOL will remain quiet for a while until he sees which way this thing ends up going. Why would he risk his position at the moment when the future (as of April 8th) is so uncertain?

What I see is this.Max at a discounted price,oil 20-30 dollars a barrel,15% fuel saving on burn,no more pilot shortage,Its an airline accountants dream! O’Leary will not miss this opportunity.The only unknown is when do we start?We have Corona virus,no Max certification,economic downturn.

You are forgetting the income part of the equation...

Eh, just me then?
Is that $ figure the RRP or production price?
Either way it is of no consequence if the market won’t accept the aircraft. That is the problem, how does any airline in the near future advertise their new shiny aircraft with any confidence with its track record?
That’s assuming certification which isn’t there yet.

Any used car dealer will tell you that what you have put into a vehicle has little bearing on what you will get for it, that is determined by the market. Even if the MAX returns to the sky demand for new aircraft will be highly depressed as airlines will be in survival mode with previous expansion plans shelved. A large number of good, used aircraft on the market at the same time from bankrupt or downsizing airlines will put a further dampner on price. With oil around $30 a barrel fuel consumption won't matter so older aircraft will have a life extension.

If they can get the MAX flying again it will only be to realise some of the money spent on the grounded aircraft and reduce the loss. It would be a good chance for an opportunistic purchaser such as Ryanair to replace it's entire fleet at a bargain basement price and sit out the next ten years until Boeing can bring out a B737 replacement. Brand new aircraft would reduce maintenance costs, improve dispatch reliability, and increased fuel efficiency would pay off in the medium term when oil prices recover. With the number of order cancellations likely to come as airlines won't be in a position to take new aircraft and keeping Ryanair in the Boeing camp there could be "buy one, get one free' on offer, Boeing might even give him a few for nothing in order to free up space in the employee car park.

MOL took full advantage of the 9/11 terror attacks to drive Boeing down on price, he may do it again.

Wizzair is going to get 15 new aircraft this year as it was scheduled, so it depends

Looking at post 9-11 I'd say Ryanair will take their aircraft and maybe even upsize their order with whatever becomes available for cheap now. Given that the FAA clears the MAX to fly again what I expect to happen.
Aside from that widebodies are cheap now. This might be the moment for Ryanair to launch their separate long range brand for transatlantic flights. There will be more demand for cheap flights as many people still need to travel but don't have money to burn for luxuries anymore.

I can categorically state that, whatever the situation, I would never fly in a 737 MAX.
And that’s from someone with over 24;000 hours operating Boeings of all types but mainly 747s.

From what I read, there are ~400 with customers and another ~400 in storage. Given we don’t know yet if it will fly again commercially and what future demand for new planes will be, I can see the distinct possibility of recycling some of the stored airframes. Airbus are going to cut production of the 320 Neo by 50% as a background to all this, which shows the seriousness of the situation.

Airbus does some steep fast cut indicating that those MAXes built might finally get delivered. It's just not the airframes it's the crews, the parts, the maintenance licences. Nobody will turn away so easily.

What is it that you know, that the aviation regulatory authorities around the world will miss?

I think that might be for other reasons, such as the lack of demand for air travel for a while as well as the lack of money to pay for shiny new aircraft?