Future of the Airlines.
 

After this pandemic and worldwide depression I predict a much smaller airline industry to emerge, similar to before deregulation. Airlines without a very healthy balance sheet before this started, or government backing will go under.

What’s left will be nationalised or subject to heavy controls regarding routes, timetables and fares.

For the A380 it’s almost certainly long term storage for a couple of years and only back on a few limited routes where the numbers add up, if and when it does return.

Probably the final nail for the B737 MAX as well. Why waste billions in patching up a fundamentally flawed design for which future demand has evaporated ? There may have been a case for a solution when the order book was in the thousands, but not any more.

The US government will likely take over Boeing due to its importance to the economy and as a defence supplier. The downturn could be used to develop an all new replacement aircraft.

I believe that the future is now all twins, with A320/B737s being used to the limits of their range and B787s taking over from there. These types are already in existence in significant numbers and economical to operate, even though fuel price won’t be much of an issue for a while. High density seating in the narrow bodies and 9 across in the B787, with possibly a couple of rows of business class will be the new norm.

Suites and lie flat seats won’t be filling up anytime soon. A holiday is likely to be an annual trip to a short/mid range destination on a low cost airline, rather than long haul on a premium carrier. Short getaways to Europe from the UK will likely be replaced with coach trips to Blackpool, Rhyl, Skegness and Brighton.

Since air travel was a major player in the virus's spread across the globe "social distancing" might be a requirement in future air travel.

Not sure any airline has a healthy enough balance sheet to last this out and be able to function when the dust finally settles in the distant future.

Governments will have much bigger concerns than air travel - much of the business travel (junkets) will not return.

Tourism air travel will be a long slow process as folks now realize savings are important - when things go bad.

Too many questions within your original comment

Boeing, I think you are correct.

The A380 should survive or heavy traffic routes. The problem is volume -v- frequency; do consumers want 2 x 500 seat aircraft per day, or a schedule that has 4 x 250 seat aircraft? Can all international routes be daily services?

The A350 is a far better aircraft IMHO than the 787, in terms of range, fuel efficiency and passenger space, and with all the goings on within Boeing it should become more popular - and how far off is the A330 neo?

The other thing is with climate change will more short haul routes be overtaken by high speed rail? Maybe not in the US, but possibly in Europe.

Will people return to coach trips? Really, everyone lives for their cars.

Too many potential passengers will have got used to using Skype that there will be very little business travel because businesses can't afford it

Generally people will downgrade a step or two, first class to business, business to economy, full service to low cost. Long haul holiday destination to regional, regional to domestic. The problem experienced in the UK after the financial crisis was that people's spending levels didn't instantly rebound once things improved. Money saving habits were ingrained and once it was realised that supermarket own brands did the same job as premium ones, you didn't actually need to upgrade your cell phone every year and a ready meal from M&S with their own brand wine was as nice as a poncy restaurant, it was hard to justify going back to the old ways. This was especially applicable if you were caught with your pants down financially having little in the bank and heavy monthly commitments.

The big question is of course, how long this goes on for. A vaccine available in mass quantities tomorrow would end the immediate crisis and we could concentrate on the economy, a second wave of a more severe virus strain with a higher mortality rate would plunge us into a depression that would still affect our grandchildren.

The A350 may be a better aircraft than the B787 but it couldn't compete with second hand B787s being sold at fire sale prices by bankrupt or downsizing airlines. There are probably enough narrow bodies around at the moment to cater for immediate needs, the newer and larger variants such as the A321NEO could replace widebodies on many routes which would be unable to sustain a 300 seat aircraft. The B777-300 would effectively be the new A380. Fuel prices are unlikely to be a major issue for a while which will extend the lifespans of older aircraft currently in use.

And then there are the grounded 737MAX...

I think you will be able to get a widebody aircraft free with your cornflakes, as long as you pick it up and pay for parking...

I think that with Jet A1 being 1/3rd of the cost it was a year ago, it might make more sense to run a cheap, less efficient airframe than an expensive, efficient one. Why pay leasing on a 787 when you can pull an old Jumbo (or A380!) out of the desert and get more bums on seats?

first and foremost - it must be de-industrialized in a sense, that aviation is not "just a business". CEO's who get payed extra if companie's share value rises, so taking care for themselves by buyback of own stock with someone else's money, should stop, should be strictly prohibited. De-regulation has started race to the bottom and increased pollution, as flying became so mondane, as walk in the park. I hope that there will be significant increase in investment in real public transport, like high-speed rails - as routes up to 500 km (or even more) on continent should be covered by high-tech trains, rather than aeroplanes. And everything is not for sale or to be used freely, withouth any moderation. Like airspace - drones and autonoumus airplanes and crap like that. Or we will wanish as species rather sooner than later.

They absolutely won't. Even the companies making these video based solutions send lots of employees around the world because video simply cannot replace face to face (never mind the timezone issues). Some travel might go away, but the vast majority of business travel is going to stay - cashflow permitting.

The specific structure of the post virus air transport system is pretty much open, no carrier can survive in hibernation for months. So they all will need help to restart, which gives the governments lots of leeway. The carriers will reemerge, in some form and relatively quickly.

What is underappreciated is the damage to aircraft builders.
The global fleet has been getting substantially younger, courtesy of a decade of vigorous fleet renewal spurred by low interest rates. The system now has no replacement needs for several years.
Full Wings' perceptive comment just highlights another element which adds to the pressure on the manufacturers. Nobody will need more aircraft for some years. The industry may have considerably more adjustment in store.

Geeez, Federal Government takeover of Boeing? Atilla the Hun might as well be UN Secretary General.

You've got a good cristal ball. Can you tell what the stock markets are going to do?

question of trust- wildwest of aviation?
 

I think there will be a trust problem with the airlines when this all finishes - look at the people trying to get home now and how they are being treated- from Irish Independent"John Spollen, the soft spoken president of the Irish Travel Agents Association, describes what has happened since the outbreak of coronavirus as a "Wild West of aviation" as airlines have abandoned their customers and ignored their rights."

Emirates is giving refunds but only from 12 months out. Customers have a year to make their mind up, and after that if they still want a refund, it will give you the refund.

Not much use if you need the refund to fly home now"

Not to blame Emirates alone- many other airlines doing the same- even BA will refund in 4-6 weeks when THEY cancel.
But this doesn't help people getting home now as could hardly be regarded as good PR for the airlines. This does not criticise the staff who work for them but I do worry that this is bad publicity for the industry and will slow a return of normal travel

Totally agree kid. Whatever happened to a duty of care from an airline when they cancel? Also the time lag for a refund is a disgrace when people who are stranded need the funds to try to return home.

Couldn't agree more.

Personal experience is : I cancelled a long planned fligth to Cuba for 19th March after my gvt had issued a no-fly warning, but the airline - Condor in this case - refused to honour/refund it as the flight was scheduled to operate - and ... it went ahead as scheduled.
Irresponsible and reckless IMO.
Cuba closed its borders 2 days later and 40k tourists are trying to get out.
Wonder how the ones flying 19th March are doing there now ...

I've just had to get out of Russia in a hurry (I was working there and they are closing down international travel). Was due to return on the 5th of April. Had no problems getting flights changed and I'm now safely home. It is not all bad!

Are any of you going to fly anywhere if you haven't caught a nasty RNA molecule and survived it? No.

Not all airlines, only some.

Our airline (i don't work there, i just say *our* because it's the flag carrier of the country I live in) does a good job in getting people home from all over the world. Their 777 are constantly flying to collect people from far away destinations in South America or the Far East while they also already started to fly large quantities of medical equipment from China to Europe.

From what I have heard, they treat their Pax well, even in these difficult times and do whatever needed to get people home.

So once this is over, people will have that in the back of their minds. Airlines who treated their pax like cr*ap might find difficult business in the future. And rightfully so.

likewise with hotels and booking agencies. Customers will have long and permanent memories.

I will state Booking.com have been excellent.

High speed rail requires a lot of electricity which will probably come from a steam plant so maybe it's inimical to the airlines as a result of convience nothing to do with the environment....just my opinion tho....who knows

Agreed Bookings.com have been and continue to be excellent. Well done to them.Reference International airlines it is good to hear that at least one “flag carrier” is supporting its customers and nationals. My experience is that many have cut and run for cover with an option to rebook in the future or eventually giving a refund not much good in the present circumstances and I hope their actions will not be forgotten in the future if ever we return to normal.

Had my refund from BA within 5 days, they had said 10-14 days when the flights were cancelled.

QATAR Airways appear to be one of the better airlines to have been booked with during this crisis and are trying to maintain some form of network so people can at least get home.

Part of their reason for continuing is to establish an advantage in reputation over Etihad and Emirates, which the UAE has forced to shut down.

My experience with Delta was pretty good. I was supposed to be flying to Washington DC tomorrow with the wife. Looks like the flight is still going, but not only are we both in groups considered to be 'high risk', pretty much everything we were planning to do in DC isn't happening. I'd used a highly restricted 'companion ticket' to get a great fare - round trip Seattle to Dulles for two in first class, for just over $1,000. Delta waived all the restrictions and I was able to reschedule everything to September (hoping this has largely blown over by then) at no charge. My only complain was that I couldn't change it on-line - I had to call, and when I got through after waiting on hold for about 10 minutes I was told to call a different number that wasn't listed on the website. But I got through immediately using the new phone number, and the agent couldn't have been more helpful.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7fca6b85e3.jpg

There is hope - saw this AVIANCA B 787 climbing out from Munich yesterday.

Agreed, and also Hotels.com except in a couple of noticeable cases where the property simply collected because our cancellation was already within the "no free cancel" period. Haven't yet tried calling Hotels.com to get that reversed in those cases, but have little hope.

Earlier this month we realised we had to can a five week trip to Central America and Cuba. Two airlines - American and Avianca, agreed to refunds without hassle - easy process, good result. Cubana refunded after deducting a fee, fair enough I guess. Alaska simply walked away with our money. Quite a few, like Copa, had awful comms and eventually - after cancelling flights - offered us credits for 12 to 18 months - which would be acceptable if we had confidence the airline would still be around to honour the debt. May need to call the card company about those.

One or two accommodation and activity providers we'd booked with directly handled things badly, most were great. We will remember.

If you hold any airmiles that can be readily spent on non-aviation products right now, I'd advise spending them. You're an unsecured creditor.

The three year long blockade of Qatar and the loss of important regional destinations, together with the additional costs of extended routings around nearby countries have had an impact on the airlines finances even before this pandemic. With a loss of US$639 million for the financial year ending 31 March 2019, and this FY likely to be much worse (even though the flight cancellations only affect a few weeks of it), together with the certainty of massive further losses next FY even if a cure for the virus is found tomorrow, the future is far from clear.

With no domestic routes, restrictions on countries nearby and little origin/destination traffic the airline is almost totally reliant on connecting flights through Doha which puts it in a very weak position. Many airlines enjoy a domestic network and a market for which their country is either the origin or destination, enabling them to charge a premium for non stop flights during high season and switch to being a hub for connecting traffic during the low season.

As a long haul premium hub airline, recovery is likely to be delayed, the domestic and regional low cost airlines will be the first to benefit when things pick up again. It's a real pity as I always enjoyed flying on Qatar Airways and found their fares to be very reasonable compared to similar competition. They certainly deserved their 5* rating.

With the country mainly reliant on oil and gas, the prices of which are likely to remain depressed for the near future, attention turns to the reserves. Basically how much is in the kitty, the degree of liquidity (not easy to get a good price selling a luxury hotel at the moment) and the willingness of the government to pour in money.

Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are integral to their city states and have to be kept going. CX may well be taken over by Air China and SIA is receiving a government bail out. QR may not be so fortunate. The unmentionable airline nearby shows that a government's willingness to keep on pouring billions of dollars into a black hole can't be taken for granted. CX and SIA are ingrained into the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore and are responsible for jobs in other sectors such as tourism, the net economic effect is significant in these cities.

Whereas Singapore without SIA is unthinkable, Qatar without QR as a major world airline isn't. Without a sustained recovery soon and significant state backing, QR is likely to end up like Saudi Arabian Airlines or Kuwait Airways. ie much smaller and catering primarily to locals and migrant workers rather than a major hub and spoke airline.

I'm glad some airlines are being good about it. I had a flight to Gatwick on Westjet in April and they, righfully, cancelled the flight but are only giving travel credit. I have wasted too much time with them on this already. If I need to go to small claims court I will, and I will also make sure to never fly them again. They and Air Canada are both bully airlines. My next flight to London may very well be on KLM via Amsterdam. I do not care if it is longer, the cost is the same and the experience is better.

TME

Have you contacted Alaska directly? Their customer service is generally very good, and their website says:
(although in most cases you're talking credit for a future flight, not an outright refund)

If the airline is still around, they won't kill their air miles - the last thing they want to do is alienate their best customers. Of course is the airline goes away all bets are off.

Not as yet, but since you mention it I will give it a try. Our flights were booked last year and canceled by me on March 10 when we saw governments starting to close borders. One of the flights was due only three days later. Their website process merely acknowledged what I'd done and I presumed that was that, since at that time the cancellation wasn't of their making.

Yes indeed on both counts.

Pretty much everybody here in Ontario is in stay-at-home mode unless they work in an essential
business. So, I'm sitting at home. All well, but sitting at home nonetheless.

Some months ago, the Mrs. YYZjim scheduled our next cruise - departing from Vancouver in mid-
June. Looks like we had better cancel, even if social distancing is relaxed before then.

I believe everyone is going to catch COVID-19 sooner or later. The best place to suffer
through it is at home, near familiar hospitals, and not in some far-off land. It seems foolish
to catch it while en route somewhere else.

If other vacationers think like me, it's going to take a long time before planes fill up.

Tip: Don't book your plane tickets until after you've booked the virus.

YYZjim

Probably claim through your CC company.

Not sure it will come down to trust
 

I don't think it will come down to trust A lot seem to be having trouble dealing with this.

Qantas left us stranded in Japan, thank you Alan Joyce, and trying to get hold of Qantas has been impossible. We bought new tickets to get home. Cost us 7.5k in lost accomdation and new flights. It's the price gouging that cheeses me off the most.

But I focus on the way Qantas treats not just us customers but their staff as well who have lost their jobs. Would love to know what Alan is doing with the bailout money from the government. Sure isn't going to staff or customers.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12321018

"Covid 19 coronavirus: Air New Zealand slashes jobs, Greg Foran lays it on the line
"In that light, it is clear the Air New Zealand which emerges from Covid-19 is a much smaller airline and could take years to get back to its former size. Therefore, we are planning to be a domestic airline with limited international services to keep supply lines open for the foreseeable future.""

Yes, already a majority-government-owned airline and few will be surprised if it is even more so by the time the pandemic subsides. As some have already said, it's entirely possible that most of those left standing will be in the same boat.

Flights ex New Zealand
 

Good news from New Zealand for people trying to get to the UK. Malaysian have just scheduled about 10 flights in April Auckland KL tech stop but no deplaning and on to Heathrow at a sensible price rather than that rip off airline whose name I will not mention who have been charging the most outrageous prices ex. New Zealand to return to the UK. Well done Malaysian you have the support and appreciation of all of us stuck in New Zealand in bringing at last some competition back to the market. Thank you

Please name and shame! Was it Qatar?