Aircraft Down North Wales
 

C172S G-CBXJ is seen on FR24 in the area of Puffin Island at 1141hrs showing in the decent at 1664ft/per min then ADSB signal is lost.

EGOV 251120Z 14007KT 9999 FEW008 BKN016 12/10 Q0997 TEMPO 7000 -RA SCT014 RMK WHT TEMPO GRN

FR24 data is not always reliable and can often show large speed and/or height changes, and aircraft disappearing/re-appearing where there are drops in coverage.

Having said that, hoping for good news but this is not usually a good sign...AAIB team enroute: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/t...north-wales--3 The AAIB has sent a team to investigate an accident involving a light aircraft. Published 25 November 2019.

I have it as Caernarfon based. Seen here March 2017:
http://www.kelvindavies.co.uk/kelvin/details.php?image_id=24730

MLAT based data on FR24 is known for unrealistic speed/position 'spikes', but this a/c had ADSB, with taxi and t/o roll right on the lines. So I fear the worst, based on the (reliable) FR24 data until coverage was lost at 600ft, with 375 feet being the ADSB reported altitude when on the departure runway at this seashore airport.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/a...-cbxj#22f7911e

Three Lifeboats out there searching some 5+ hours after they started. This is the track of one of them.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d4f73fab8b.png

Not a great idea to speculate re the identity of an aircraft that has gone down, for obvious reasons.

It will be confirmed soon enough, after those who have a more immediate need to know have been told.

BBC saying single crew no pax

The police family liason unit are supporting the missing pilots family. Still no sign of the aircraft this evening. I suspect the outcome will unfortunately not be the one we would hope for.
​
​https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/anglesey-plane-crash-police-confirm-17315143

I have friends who are RNLI crew. I understand that they have software that predicts likely movement to aid their search patterns. Between the three lifeboats they have covered a wide area.

Pilot has been named - I think some will be familiar with him.

If it has crashed, why haven't they found any wreckage yet?

Possibly because it's at the bottom of the sea ?

RIP David Last. I had the pleasure of working on a project with him. His knowledge of radio navigation was endless.

How awful. I knew David well. He was a lecturer at Bangor when I was there in late 1960s He took me flying in his Robin from Caernarfon in 2006 and I met him several times later including at a university reunion dinner in 2016 when he proudly told me about his new business advising clients about the accuracy of GPS. He was a very keen and conscientious aviator and this is a tragic loss.

For those not familiar with the area, the Menai Straits are between the Island of Angelsey and mainland Wales. Although the tidal currents in the Straits, under the Menai Bridge can reach 2m/s (4 knots.), the area where the plane was last reported is much wider, so the currents would be less.
The flight last went over what is known as the Great Orme, which is a dramatic rocky headland 679 feet high. A few minutes later it pitched downwards towards Puffin Island.
It has been reported that some wreckage has been found, but the present choppy state of the sea, and the foggy visibility, is not helping with the search.
.

Given the age of the pilot, is it not possible that he may have had a medical mishap leading to the accident?