Aircraft Down North Wales
 

C172S G-CBXJ is seen on FR24 in the area of Puffin Island at 1141hrs showing in the decent at 1664ft/per min then ADSB signal is lost.

EGOV 251120Z 14007KT 9999 FEW008 BKN016 12/10 Q0997 TEMPO 7000 -RA SCT014 RMK WHT TEMPO GRN

FR24 data is not always reliable and can often show large speed and/or height changes, and aircraft disappearing/re-appearing where there are drops in coverage.

Having said that, hoping for good news but this is not usually a good sign...AAIB team enroute: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/t...north-wales--3 The AAIB has sent a team to investigate an accident involving a light aircraft. Published 25 November 2019.

I have it as Caernarfon based. Seen here March 2017:
http://www.kelvindavies.co.uk/kelvin/details.php?image_id=24730

MLAT based data on FR24 is known for unrealistic speed/position 'spikes', but this a/c had ADSB, with taxi and t/o roll right on the lines. So I fear the worst, based on the (reliable) FR24 data until coverage was lost at 600ft, with 375 feet being the ADSB reported altitude when on the departure runway at this seashore airport.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/a...-cbxj#22f7911e

Three Lifeboats out there searching some 5+ hours after they started. This is the track of one of them.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d4f73fab8b.png

Not a great idea to speculate re the identity of an aircraft that has gone down, for obvious reasons.

It will be confirmed soon enough, after those who have a more immediate need to know have been told.

BBC saying single crew no pax

The police family liason unit are supporting the missing pilots family. Still no sign of the aircraft this evening. I suspect the outcome will unfortunately not be the one we would hope for.
​
​https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/anglesey-plane-crash-police-confirm-17315143

I have friends who are RNLI crew. I understand that they have software that predicts likely movement to aid their search patterns. Between the three lifeboats they have covered a wide area.

Pilot has been named - I think some will be familiar with him.

If it has crashed, why haven't they found any wreckage yet?

Possibly because it's at the bottom of the sea ?

RIP David Last. I had the pleasure of working on a project with him. His knowledge of radio navigation was endless.

How awful. I knew David well. He was a lecturer at Bangor when I was there in late 1960s He took me flying in his Robin from Caernarfon in 2006 and I met him several times later including at a university reunion dinner in 2016 when he proudly told me about his new business advising clients about the accuracy of GPS. He was a very keen and conscientious aviator and this is a tragic loss.

For those not familiar with the area, the Menai Straits are between the Island of Angelsey and mainland Wales. Although the tidal currents in the Straits, under the Menai Bridge can reach 2m/s (4 knots.), the area where the plane was last reported is much wider, so the currents would be less.
The flight last went over what is known as the Great Orme, which is a dramatic rocky headland 679 feet high. A few minutes later it pitched downwards towards Puffin Island.
It has been reported that some wreckage has been found, but the present choppy state of the sea, and the foggy visibility, is not helping with the search.
.

Given the age of the pilot, is it not possible that he may have had a medical mishap leading to the accident?

I know this area very well; I used to keep my own boat in Beaumaris and I sailed a commercial vessel through the Menai straits many times (and as a student I lived in Penmon!)

The tide rips through the deep water between Anglesey and Puffin Island. Between Puffin Island and Conwy is a vast area of shallow sandbanks without much tide except in the Conwy river channel. North of Anglesey, where the search seems to be focussed, you are back into strong tides close inshore, fierce tidal races off Pt Lynas and Moelfre and deep water. So a complex area to search with many hazards and steep tide gradients which will make a search challenging because a mile or so difference in where and how he entered the water can make a huge difference in where the wreckage ends-up.

I have to agree, that was my thoughts when I heard the age of the pilot. The sudden 1660 ft per min decent kind of suggests he possibly became Incapacitated or even unconscious, if this is proven to be the case, then hopefully he was unconscious before impacting the water. RIP

I'm 71 yrs old and no longer have any desire to fly solo, I usually fly with my wife who is 70, but the chances of us both becoming incapacitated at the same time is pretty remote.

Damn. Had the pleasure of attending lectures by David on radio navigation at Bangor back around 2000.

David's website

The Local Police said that the underwater diving team had been operating on Wednesday and Thursday, although their diving support vessel does not appear on the AIS radar.
Today (Friday.) The Prince Madoc has been doing a systematic grid search all afternoon, and now at 19:30 seems to have selected an area 1000m E.N.E. of the northern tip of Puffin Island, for a more concentrated search.
This area is between 90 and 101 ft deep, and could be where the heavy engine would have sunk.
.

Looking at marine traffic just now, I see there is a police boat, Cormorant, currently a mile or two to the NE of Puffin Island and apparently stationary.

They have recovered his body.

What a very sad coincidence. From that report, it would seem the police were recovering his body at the same time I wrote my post #26.

The report was published by the AAIB on 29 Oct 20 - very sad reading of a highly-respected Past-President of the Royal Institute of Navigation.

AAIB report:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...CBXJ_12-20.pdf

The mention of the pilot having previously suffered from an ear, nose and throat illness and then said he had felt strange when a car he was in accelerated is intriguing. This type of illness can take a relatively long time to clear up completely. It seems very possible that he may have suffered from an inner ear/balance issue, especially as he was operating over the sea, where there are fewer visual cues, resulting in disorientation and subsequent loss of control.

I had a chest infection at the start of the year which led to several extreme asthmatic coughing bouts while out walking up hill and getting a bit out of breath; twice I suddenly felt very dizzy and had to grab hold of something to stop myself collapsing and, while conscious of my surroundings, I just felt as though I was spinning rapidly, presumably a temporary reduction of oxygen in my brain or something. Took several minutes for sense of balance to return after I leaned forward and got my head down a bit - gripping tightly to a fence and a tree. Not something I'd experienced before and I'm glad they happened in relatively safe circumstances!

Thread drift related to the report. On page 2 there is a footnote:
I didn't think there was any controlled airspace in that area, which seems to be confirmed by this very useful KMZ file from Airspace ? 3D Airspace
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....37db29b706.png

So why the imperative "Aircraft are required ..."?

RAF Valley is a very busy training base - low level high speed jets abound. As a regular in that area I always make sure I'm in contact with Valley Radar and transit Menai below 1500'.
A quick glance upwards, as you pass through the Rnwy 31 centerline, is often instructive :ok:

I'm unclear about the AAIB's reference to the "Holyhead QNH." Do they mean the Holyhead RPS (Regional Pressure Setting) or the Valley QNH?

ETOPS makes a good point about staying below high speed jets inbound to Runway 31, but I suspect that such aircraft would be using the Valley QFE?

It’s the Holyhead RPS - the RAF use that and QFE. Slightly academic as Valley is just about sea level..

OK, thanks ETOPS :ok:

...but not academic if you use the RPS, which could easily put you at 1800' in real terms. Maybe the 1500' takes this into account?

About time to do away with the RPS (and QFE, while we're about it)

TOO

I appreciate your point ETOPS and if I was flying in that area, I would certainly contact Valley. However, my query was about the use of the word "required" implying that staying below 1500' was mandatory.

PS Let's not start another QFE/QNH debate! At my airfield, you would run out of sub-scale trying to set QFE. ;)

It seems to be an agreement between Caernarfon and Valley, rather than an airspace requirement. I suspect that line of the report was a quote from a Caernarfon respondent rather than produced by the AAIB themselves, given the factual errors (eg Holyhead "QNH").