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-   -   Pilot shortage - myth or reality? (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/617740-pilot-shortage-myth-reality.html)

hec7or 5th Mar 2019 08:38

I think there’s a clue in the username.....

bafanguy 5th Mar 2019 08:50


Originally Posted by N1EPR (Post 10407085)
There are thousands of US pilots commuting to work in foreign lands. I know most or all of them would be quick to take a job in the US if the pay was right.

Well, in many but not all places in the US, the pay IS right but will come with some affiliated considerations that might not suit everyone, e.g., going to the bottom of a seniority list, etc. Some expats have come back with success while others tried and failed. They can claim there's no age bias in their hiring but I just don't believe that despite seeing them trot out an example or two of some 50 y/o candidate. And experience ? Do they think you might just have a little too much experience to be trainable according to their notions of cultural fit ? They'll never admit that...

But more importantly, it's not as easy as just agreeing to come home to one of those positions with the good pay and career potential. The HR types (and that includes those with a license and medical in their pockets) have some notion of ignoring experience and technical competence in favor of something called a good "cultural" fit...you know, a proper employee. These 30 potential years of employment suitability are determined by 30 minutes across from an interview panel and some shrink-related testing.

They will (and currently do...even the lesser quality carriers) pass up untold numbers of experienced candidates here in the US and have constructed a gauntlet of hurdles to even getting an interview: career "expos" where you spend money and time just getting there to stand in lines for hours for the "opportunity" for a few minutes face to face with some recruiter, meet-the-chief-pilot events (same idea as expo but fewer numbers and much harder to get an invitation), video interviews, online application processes that stymie even the most astute applicant if not completely prevent his data from being submitted at all in the form allegedly demanded by the HR types. All this to just get an interview.

So, all of this mumbo-jumbo in lieu of hiring experienced aviators... proven entities...and then convincing them they made the right choice in accepting the job by not treating them like dirt once on the payroll thereby creating a suitable employee.

[and no, I'm not looking for a job nor is any job looking for me...I just observe]

eiffel 5th Mar 2019 11:12

It would be interesting to know the 2019 recruitment figures for european airlines……
EasyJet, Eurowings, Volotea, Ryanair, Lufthansa, BA, Air France, Wizzair, Vueling….

MaverickPrime 5th Mar 2019 11:14

I’m just an outsider looking in, but I see a perfect storm brewing in the USA that could potentially leave them short of pilots.

Take a look at Ryanair here in the EU. A cadet leaves flying school with 250hrs, joins Ryanair straight on to a 737. In their 2nd year they are earning equivalent $98k, 4 years they are a captain earning equivalent $168k, 8 years they are a TRE(check pilot) earning $191k. They can be based near home and have 12/13 days a month off excluding standby duties. They also dont have to pay for their healthcare or kids education and if they’ve any sense, they will pick a low tax EU country to base themselves in. Incidentally Ryanair has a perfect 30 year safety record.

Whilst salaries in the USA can be much higher than this, it takes a long long time to get them. IMVHO, there are no opportunities like Ryanair in the USA and I think that is detering a lot of people from aiming for the airlines in the USA. We moan and groan in the EU about getting a break in the industry, but to be honest I think things in europe are better for pilots than just about any other part of the world.

MaverickPrime 5th Mar 2019 11:15


Originally Posted by eiffel (Post 10407404)
It would be interesting to know the 2019 recruitment figures for european airlines……
EasyJet, Eurowings, Volotea, Ryanair, Lufthansa, BA, Air France, Wizzair, Vueling….

Ryanair recruited 1100 pilots in 2018, majority cadets.

JPJP 5th Mar 2019 11:49


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 10405997)
Exactly my point.

Southwest has nearly triple the fleet size (~ 750), and makes ~ 4000 landings per day. I’ve never seen a comparative breakdown of landing incidents between Easyjet and Southwest. How about you ?

FlightDetent 5th Mar 2019 14:23


Originally Posted by JPJP (Post 10407441)
Southwest has nearly triple the fleet size (~ 750), and makes ~ 4000 landings per day. I’ve never seen a comparative breakdown of landing incidents between Easyjet and Southwest. How about you?

I did not come here to pick up a fight, as you will clearly see in the original post. The ratio seems to be 4:1. Given the difference in operating size, extent of which I was not completely aware of, that looks allright.

Meikleour 5th Mar 2019 16:44

"Incidentally Ryanair has a perfect 30 year safety record."

I take it that you haven't followed RYR for very long or is your definition of safety simply not killing anyone?!

polax52 6th Mar 2019 16:03


Originally Posted by Who stole my meds (Post 10408544)
No not usually. I'm far from a top gun. But when the Captain is an obnoxious piece of work it is quite satisfying when I can fly the aircraft better than him.
Wouldn't you agree?

Lets be honest. You sound obnoxious as well. Rightly or wrongly the Captain is the Captain. If you respect the Captains which you fly with then pretty likely you'll soon be a Captain yourself..

cumulustratus 6th Mar 2019 16:38


Originally Posted by Who stole my meds (Post 10408544)
No not usually. I'm far from a top gun. But when the Captain is an obnoxious piece of work it is quite satisfying when I can fly the aircraft better than him.
Wouldn't you agree?

Great that you take satisfaction in doing your job well. You do realise that a pilot's role is so much more than handling the aircraft, right? That's why we have the autopilot.

ph-sbe 7th Mar 2019 02:18


Originally Posted by MaverickPrime (Post 10407406)
Take a look at Ryanair here in the EU. A cadet leaves flying school with 250hrs, joins Ryanair straight on to a 737. In their 2nd year they are earning equivalent $98k, 4 years they are a captain earning equivalent $168k, 8 years they are a TRE(check pilot) earning $191k.

Whereas I got my CPL+MEP+IR and instead of flying students for the rest of my life I learned how to code. Now I fly and teach for fun and make way, way more than your TRE pilot in Silicon Valley.

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.

If that pilot shortage really comes, I always have the option to join the airlines: if the price is right.

JPJP 7th Mar 2019 04:34


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 10407591)
I did not come here to pick up a fight, as you will clearly see in the original post. The ratio seems to be 4:1. Given the difference in operating size, extent of which I was not completely aware of, that looks allright.

No worries. My question was genuine, not snark. I hadn’t seen any comparisons :)

speedrestriction 7th Mar 2019 05:23

The comment about the average new hires having 250hrs to European locos is not accurate - whilst cadets do make a significant proportion of RHS recruitment, there is also a stream of experienced individuals being recruited to both seats. Last month I was working with a recently hired SFO who joined from a legacy European carrier with 16(!) years experience.

polax52 7th Mar 2019 21:24


Originally Posted by speedrestriction (Post 10409146)
The comment about the average new hires having 250hrs to European locos is not accurate - whilst cadets do make a significant proportion of RHS recruitment, there is also a stream of experienced individuals being recruited to both seats. Last month I was working with a recently hired SFO who joined from a legacy European carrier with 16(!) years experience.

Poor bugger, he should have learnt to code.

mustafagander 8th Mar 2019 08:10

It makes you wonder - 16 years as F/O??

Easyheat 8th Mar 2019 11:13

In CPH/SAS it is 25+ years before LH Captain.

16 years is nothing if it is LH in a European Legacy Carrier.

Denti 8th Mar 2019 11:14


Originally Posted by mustafagander (Post 10410201)
It makes you wonder - 16 years as F/O??

Not that unusual in some legacy carriers in the EU. Worked for one where the average time to command was 16 to 17 years.

Still stupid to join as an SFO, buy a command via P2F and then join on the left side, it is easier and faster than internal upgrades.

iggy 9th Mar 2019 00:36


Originally Posted by Denti (Post 10410357)
...buy a command via P2F and then join on the left side, it is easier and faster than internal upgrades.

As usual, pilots are their own worst enemy.

RatherBeFlying 9th Mar 2019 17:05


Originally Posted by ph-sbe (Post 10409109)
Whereas I got my CPL+MEP+IR and instead of flying students for the rest of my life I learned how to code. Now I fly and teach for fun and make way, way more than your TRE pilot in Silicon Valley.

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.

If that pilot shortage really comes, I always have the option to join the airlines: if the price is right.

Some decades ago I was much in the same position and found coding paid multiples better than any available flying position.

Then I got downsized at 55 into a job market that was just as brutal to old coders as it was to low hour pilots.

So keep building that Plan A as you will likely be needing it not too long after you turn 35;)

flash8 13th Mar 2019 15:09


Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.
Indeed I went from a Computer Science degree to a well paid IT Consultancy position, that funded a CPL/IR after resignation, then 737-300, and then back to IT/Government consultancy. I recall many Captains after I stated my previous pre-airline salary look at me as if I were crazy to give it up, and more than one told me I was foolish.

There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.

Fotor 13th Mar 2019 16:57

After a standstill lasting a couple of years (about 2009-2013) I see a lot of movement now in the pilot market. I'm working for a semi-lowcost airline in NW Europe, and we are foreseeing problems te get pilots in the future. A lot of our FO's are 'upgrading' theirselves to the main carrier (really a lot, last year more than 10% of all pilots), so we need a lot of new guys. The new pilots are partly firsttimers, partly coming from other airlines like Ryanair. The company is even starting its own flying school to secure enough new pilots for the future.
So I don't know if there is a real shortage at this time (we still manage to attract enough new pilots), but management is taking measures for a possible shortage in the near future.

EatMyShorts! 13th Mar 2019 19:38


ph-sbe 13th Mar 2019 20:08


Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying (Post 10411644)
Then I got downsized at 55 into a job market that was just as brutal to old coders as it was to low hour pilots.

Sad, and weird, to hear. I'm well in my 40s and have not seen anything similar. Every company I've worked for so far has a mix of junior vs experienced SWEs. But then again, I'm in silicon valley where there is always a market for people with skills. For comparison (and not to show off), my W2 income for last year was well above 300k (this includes base, bonus, RSUs etc).Of course, that includes the silicon valley bonus (cost of living is horrible). I've yet to see air crew make that.

My point being that at this point in time, young people interested in aviation must make a choice between cash and their dreams, and potentially have a plan B.

hans brinker 13th Mar 2019 20:36


Originally Posted by ph-sbe (Post 10417281)
Sad, and weird, to hear. I'm well in my 40s and have not seen anything similar. Every company I've worked for so far has a mix of junior vs experienced SWEs. But then again, I'm in silicon valley where there is always a market for people with skills. For comparison (and not to show off), my W2 income for last year was well above 300k (this includes base, bonus, RSUs etc).Of course, that includes the silicon valley bonus (cost of living is horrible). I've yet to see air crew make that.

My point being that at this point in time, young people interested in aviation must make a choice between cash and their dreams, and potentially have a plan B.


Just an FYI, every captain at DL, UA, AA, SW,A FDX, UPS makes more than 300K, and quite a few FOs do too. At least 30,000 pilots make that much money.
And on a totally unrelated note:"ook uit holland??"

wiggy 13th Mar 2019 21:19


Originally Posted by flash8 (Post 10416785)
There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.

I guess there might be more than one but the individual starring in the video EatMyShorts provided ended up flying in the Far East but (judging by a follow up video) seemed to hoping for a career change at some point.

flash8 13th Mar 2019 22:39


Originally Posted by wiggy (Post 10417389)
I guess there might be more than one but the individual starring in the video EatMyShorts provided ended up flying in the Far East but (judging by a follow up video) seemed to hoping for a career change at some point.

Yes, that was the chap!

MaverickPrime 13th Mar 2019 23:11

Quite a few skippers in China lift $350k net if money is your thing.

ph-sbe 14th Mar 2019 21:03


Originally Posted by hans brinker (Post 10417325)
Just an FYI, every captain at DL, UA, AA, SW,A FDX, UPS makes more than 300K, and quite a few FOs do too. At least 30,000 pilots make that much money.
And on a totally unrelated note:"ook uit holland??"

I've never seen an FO go above 300k, but good for them if they do. If at flagship carriers, getting to that level requires seniority to get to the left seat, and a mix of skill and luck to get to the left seat of long-haul. In my team, I have newgrads starting at 150+, with midlevel engineers (think early to late 30s) well above 200k. While that for sure is possible at a flagship carrier, we all know that for the average flyboy hopeful, that's simply a dream that is either unattainable or will take a lot of time. Which brings me back to my original point: have a plan B.

Holland is a long time ago. Lost NL citizenship and haven't been back in a long time.

Alpine Flyer 17th Mar 2019 21:37

And don't go flying for money alone. If you can't say "doing what I love and getting paid for it" at least sometimes, it's not the right job for you. I am not foreign to coding but I would think more than twice about changing from flying to coding just to increase my salary.

Meester proach 18th Mar 2019 11:56

I got into flying because it looked interesting and glamorous .

I don’t want to write “ code “, even if you pay me a billion pounds TBH.

There wasn’t a version of top gun based on IT...

FlightDetent 18th Mar 2019 12:44

There's the Matrix movie ... :ooh:

Ian W 18th Mar 2019 15:14


Originally Posted by Meester proach (Post 10422391)
I got into flying because it looked interesting and glamorous .

I don’t want to write “ code “, even if you pay me a billion pounds TBH.

There wasn’t a version of top gun based on IT...

There is a certain je ne sais quoi knowing that you guys are exercising code I wrote and systems I helped design :)
But don't expect huge sums or any thanks.

eiffel 30th Mar 2019 16:09

How many WOW's pilots on the market? (European? Americans? Others?)

booze 30th Mar 2019 17:23

178. Mostly Icelandic and other European nationalities.

Meester proach 30th Mar 2019 22:32

I think they’ll be ok, plenty of A320 jobs out there

Sailvi767 31st Mar 2019 00:47

Delta came within spitting distance of their first million dollar in one year Captains and plentry of F0’s will break 500K. 500k is probably pretty close to the norm for a widebody CA.

Steepclimb 31st Mar 2019 01:07

I was chief pilot of a small skydive operation for several years. It was surprisingly difficult to find suitable pilots. You know pilots who I felt comfortable enough that they were competent enough not to kill our customers.

The good ones were obvious and soon moved on to better things. Others not so much. One lad seemed to fit the bill but after quite a few hours sitting right seat with him I just couldn't let him solo. CPL he might have but no. Saw him lately still floating around.
Not everyone has what it takes. So yes plenty of pilots are out there but not everyone has what it takes.

mryan75 1st Apr 2019 01:34


Originally Posted by flash8 (Post 10416785)
Indeed I went from a Computer Science degree to a well paid IT Consultancy position, that funded a CPL/IR after resignation, then 737-300, and then back to IT/Government consultancy. I recall many Captains after I stated my previous pre-airline salary look at me as if I were crazy to give it up, and more than one told me I was foolish.

There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.

Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.

mryan75 1st Apr 2019 01:40


Originally Posted by DeepUnderground (Post 10377798)
There may be a shortage of (people willing to go 100k into debt for entry level jobs)

I hear this line all the time. But honestly, if you're spending $100,000 to get a CPL-ME-IA with 25 hours of twinky time, you're a moron.

Denti 1st Apr 2019 06:03


Originally Posted by mryan75 (Post 10435362)
I hear this line all the time. But honestly, if you're spending $100,000 to get a CPL-ME-IA with 25 hours of twinky time, you're a moron.

Maybe. However, with that experience the entry level jet is then an A320 or 737 and a command in five years. Of course one could get his CPL and a degree at something like Embry Riddle or UND (costs are similar) and then spend another 100k to get the required 1500 hours for his ATPL. Different systems and very different job markets.


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