PTKK wind was SW/15Kts from 0800-1200 from windy.com model. It ain't perfect, but it is pretty good normally as a model.

If everyone got out and just had a swim, then that was fortuitous. The question will be if the airline can recover from their calamitous financial position, and their curious industrial relations stance.

When the OEM's (brand B...) dropped reference ground speed from the repertoire of wind shear protection method, the discipline of knowing a ballpark minimum ground speed target also gave an expected sink rate on descent as a logical aside. That would give a large hint to someone flying an approach with a tailwind or conditions that are not as considered before the approach. Brand A achieves the same with GSmini, however the cognitive process is subsumed by the automatics rather than being a part of the scan of performance instruments.

Clean living obviously paid off for the pax on this one.

The video is post #12 shows the remains of the landing craft that is south of the RWY04 threshold. That puts the plane in the H2O southwest of the runway. If it was an undershoot into the brine, then it was on RWY04, alternatively a long landing and off piste off RWY22.

AVherald reports the 737 came in too low and hit the water - seems not an overrun but an under shoot into the sea as first reported

The aircraft came too low and touched down into the sea about 150 meters ahead of the runway and was rapidly slowed by the water. The aircraft was evacuated, all passengers and crew were able to leave the aircraft. A few serious injuries (bone fractures) are being reported, however, no critical injuries.
Passengers reported the aircraft was on final approach to Chuuk when they thought they had a hard touch down until they realized they had landed in the sea. The aircraft floated long enough for everybody to leave the aircraft and be rescued by locals in their boats.

So, is this the case then?

METAR:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a9f8c758b6.jpg

Accident occurred around 2330-0000Z (reports vary).

That could only be the case if, after the aircraft came down, it weathercocked and ended up turning through 180° from its original heading.

If so, it must have done so very quickly (notwithstanding the light/variable wind), because none of the myriad of photos of it on the 'Net (some showing the rescue in progress) show it in any orientation other than its final position pointing away from the runway.

The aircraft is pointing at Fono Island. That means the runway is behind the aircraft, with the aircraft roughly aligned with 04. So it's either landed long on 04 and run off the end and stayed straight, or it landed short on 22 and done a 180 during the deceleration in the water. I'd be very surprised if it landed directly in the sea without touching down anywhere on the runway first.

No, there is little doubt that it ended up SW of the runway, pointing SW, as per fdr's post, so it can only be an 04 undershoot (with a 180) or a 22 overrun.

I would, too.

.. Well, look at the WX-condition at the time of the accident..CB´s / passing rainshowers..Wind direction and velocity can change within minutes..

Fly safe,
B-757

There was an ATR 72 accident a couple of months ago where the aircraft hit the water during a go-around (at 3.9g) leaving a hole in the underbelly. No injuries, crew landed off the next approach. Not sure of the location (far East), but it was certainly water contact prior to reaching the runway. Speculation only for that event, but perhaps something to do with the reported 1500fpm+ in an attempt to get below a 600ft overcast.

..No, it does not..

My initial thought is it's NE of the runway and pointing NE. SW of the runway pointing SW there is nothing in front of that but ocean for miles. If it is SW of the runway and pointing SW, all that land in front of it is confusing the heck out of me. SW of the runway and pointing NE sort of makes sense also.

I thought that as well on the background, however the LST wreckage is on the coast south of the airport, which makes it look like it is at the south end of the field.

Local CB weather would change the local wind and would only come up on the local met weather, while the trade is from the SW, a cell to the NE would give a NE wind for a period of time.

Interesting images

https://postcourier.com.pg/px-big-bi...anding-update/
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...lands-in-ocean
https://twitter.com/burebasgal

One take away from this is the SLUF ditches quite well even with the gear down.

These events make a good safety case for HUD's. The HUD gives great cues for the flight path of the aircraft vs the target, which would assist in keeping the aircraft barnacle free. The additional benefit of a HUD is when used they can reduce the number of hard landings that a fleet achieves, as long as they are unstowed and used.

There are some reports of broken hip and pelvis injuries. Are those an expected consequence of rapid deceleration when seated with a lap belt?

The video in post #12 at time 1:18 shows the islands that are to the west of the airport. The view is aligned with a point to the left of the first image below, you can observe a transit of the Shichiyo Islands, of the closer island against the further out island. Hill 1453 on TOL-PATA is almost aligned with the UDOTS high ground.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dba1b4630e.jpg

The lower image is from the N/NE of the aircraft, looking back south to the main island to the west of the end of the rwy.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a0e38189d4.png

Having seen first hand what some of the PX drivers are capable of when flying into bad WX into PNG highland ports (which don't have useful instrument approaches) it wouldn't surprise me if they got down low, visually navigated their way around below the cloud base but on this occasion the water got to them first.
Moral of the story, if you do an instrument approach and you're not visual at the missed approach point, GO AROUND.

If you have a loose belt which catches you as you accelerate into it - probably. If you have a tight belt that doesn't allow movement - probably not

It depends on the injures...
Also where were the injured inside the AC (forward, rear...)
Apparently it was a regular approach at its last seconds before taking land, so all had to be sitting and belts fastened...

Yes, It happened to me. Then the seat belt fitting ripped out of the plane, and I traveled more. I had been wearing a three point harness.

Further confirmation here, were any still required, that the aircraft ended up off the SW end of the runway. It quotes an employee who watched the aircraft sinking from the rooftop of the High Tide Hotel, which is just off the LH edge of fdr's photo (south of the red-roofed building):

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a13723df20.jpg

As to how the aircraft ended up there, presumably once it's hauled out of the lagoon we'll be able to see if it has reversers deployed, which would support the overrun theory.

I once had a seat on a small aircraft, can't remember type, completely collapse on me on a heavy landing on a Greek Island. I was fine but it woke me up.