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-   -   Boeing reports that Asia will need 240,000 pilots in next 20 years (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/612729-boeing-reports-asia-will-need-240-000-pilots-next-20-years.html)

RexBanner 5th Sep 2018 16:12


Originally Posted by 16024 (Post 10240581)
Autonomous jet airliners won't ever happen.
Repeat this over and over.
Cut it out and stick it on your wall. In a frame.
For the oldies among us it doesn't matter anyway. For anyone young enough to be thinking about a career break in China, for example, you will get to see the end of jet airliners.
And you can look at those words, in the frame and say "He was right."

if we're talking about the masters of automation (i.e. Airbus) lets look at the reality. In the near enough thirty years since the first A340 was rolled off the production line, aside from the obvious efficiencies driven by new technologies, what major automation advances do we have in the flight deck of the A350? Brake to Vacate and Automatic TCAS. And we're getting to pilotless aircraft within the same timeframe based on that rate of "progress"? Give me a break.

paperHanger 5th Sep 2018 20:04


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10237843)
Cargo ships ply the oceans and when leaving and arriving in port they are taken over by local marine pilots who guide the ship in as they have local knowledge.
This means of transport is predictable and moves in two dimensions. It would be ripe for automation but that is not happening.

Uhh ... I'll just leave this here ..

https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/24/1...ip-launch-2018

Icarus2001 6th Sep 2018 01:52

Yes I am aware of that. Not in service yet which makes my point. They are still decades away from autonomous ships. Aircraft with passengers, possibly never.

One other thought, crew costs are about 13-15% of aircraft operating costs. Surely cabin crew would go first? The argument being there are no staff on a train or bus to show you where the exits are so why do you need them on an aeroplane? Replace them with a vending machine?

These are not my thoughts by the way. Just floating the business argument.

ShotOne 6th Sep 2018 13:31

Come on, autonomous trains are not even generally accepted (no, the Gatwick shuttle doesn't count)... All the operator has to do is stop or go, any issues just stop and wait for a technician. And remotely-piloted military types suffer, by far, the highest accident rate of any aircraft on the inventory.

We keep hearing how short of pilots we're supposed to be, so why are conditions so dire for new starters to the industry?

tdracer 6th Sep 2018 20:49


Come on, autonomous trains are not even generally accepted (no, the Gatwick shuttle doesn't count)...
You'd be surprised - and no they are not limited to airport shuttles. One of the big bottlenecks for autonomous trains is the train drivers unions have fought (successfully) to keep their jobs, even when they aren't actually in control of the train. If they can't get rid of the engineer, there isn't much incentive to spend the money for autonomous control.
BTW, late last year, there was a passenger trail derailment between Seattle and Portland when the engineer took a 35 mph curve at nearly 80 mph. Several people died. They were planning to install an automatic train speed control (that would have automatically slowed the train and prevented the derailment) - but hadn't gotten around to it yet. The public outcry was such that they had to promise to implement the automatic speed control before restarting the route...

theNotoriousPIC 6th Sep 2018 20:56

I agree that aircraft automation hasn't significantly changed, in fact airlines in the US at least are emphasizing hand flying skills much more now than they were 20 years ago. But history does not look favorably upon those who hide from progress. One day airplanes will fly themselves and surgeries will be performed by robots and schools will be taught by programs. Will that day happen in 20, 30, or 40 years? Who knows? If I only get to spend 20 years as a pilot it will still have been worth it.

CurtainTwitcher 7th Sep 2018 00:31

Silicon Valley Takes a (Careful) Step Toward Autonomous Flying


Final paragraphs:

Still, the biggest hurdle may be convincing regulators and the public that autonomous flight is safe.

“There are a lot of start-ups doing this,” Igor Cherepinsky, director of autonomy programs at Sikorsky, said. “Quite a few of them are nave about what it will take.”
See my other post today on why any computer based device is vulnerable to hacking: Reflections on Trusting Trust

Icarus2001 7th Sep 2018 03:22

I say it again, when MOST of the worlds trains and MANY of the worlds ships are autonomous, then, and only then will the general public be willing to accept an aircraft with no humans up the front. Single pilot may well come first as a stepping stone, maybe.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.gmf...ecfa307402.png

KenV 7th Sep 2018 13:21


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 10243049)
BTW, late last year, there was a passenger trail derailment between Seattle and Portland when the engineer took a 35 mph curve at nearly 80 mph. Several people died. They were planning to install an automatic train speed control (that would have automatically slowed the train and prevented the derailment) - but hadn't gotten around to it yet. The public outcry was such that they had to promise to implement the automatic speed control before restarting the route...

There is a vast vast difference between an automatic speed limiter over a short section of track and a fully autonomous train. In the case of a train, literally only one variable would be autonomously controlled, speed, and no one yet trusts a computer to do that completely autonomously, even just for freight. It will take much much more before anyone trusts a computer to autonomously control a passenger aircraft where literally dozens of variables would need to be controlled simultaneously. And not just controlled, but coordinated.


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