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-   -   Boeing reports that Asia will need 240,000 pilots in next 20 years (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/612729-boeing-reports-asia-will-need-240-000-pilots-next-20-years.html)

Cabby 28th Aug 2018 19:56

Boeing reports that Asia will need 240,000 pilots in next 20 years
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45330440

Gordomac 29th Aug 2018 17:16

So, could we extend the "ARBITRARY" retirement age (see other threads) to 90 ? I could do with a five year stint at Jakarta.............best Hard Rock Cafe in the world !............!

ethicalconundrum 29th Aug 2018 18:15

I $$$$ can $$$$ fix $$$$ this $$$$ problem $$$$ for $$$$ them.

Sholayo 29th Aug 2018 19:15


Originally Posted by ethicalconundrum (Post 10236605)
I $$$$ can $$$$ fix $$$$ this $$$$ problem $$$$ for $$$$ them.

I only need some $$$$ to finish CPL/ME ;)
Then I can fly anywhere, and South East Asia is high on my 'wishlist'.

&

Kerosine 29th Aug 2018 19:31

If they can start to shift the management and safety culture away from its current dreadful state they might have more interest.

As is stands the horror stories come thick and fast, I guess you have to be mighty brave and/or desperate to pack it in and move to China.

flash8 29th Aug 2018 19:47

If those figures are real Boeing are going to have to glass up and dumb down....

Intruder 29th Aug 2018 20:00

There's already a LOT of money to be made by flying in China! The problem is that you have to live in China for most of the jobs, and put up with the Chinese bureaucracy for all of them.

stilton 30th Aug 2018 10:01

I think I need to revise my estimate
for pilotless airliners


I Would say in service now by 2040

RexBanner 30th Aug 2018 21:40

:rolleyes: Dream on

ZeBedie 30th Aug 2018 22:31

Boeing come up with this stuff every few years, on a regular basis. Meh.

DODGYOLDFART 30th Aug 2018 22:49

Before we get to fully pilotless we will see the advent of the "cockpit minder" on about half the pay of a current 1st Officer.

No I am not dreaming that is exactly what happened with the first generation of robots and NC machines back in the 1960's. Machine minders looked after the robots and if anything went wrong they knew where the big red "STOP" button was and pushed it. Not much skill required in that and my guess is that flying will go the same way.

I learned to fly on gliders (CCF) and got my PPL on Tiger Moths where the two most useful instruments in the aircraft were your backside and your eyes. Later progressing to more complex aircraft where it could take quite awhile to find your way around all the switches and dials, never mind all the mind blowing calculations you had to do in your head regarding route, weather, C of G, etc. Then along came round one of automation, GPS and the little disk you stuck in the dashboard which took most of the fun out of flying.

I doubt I will get to see it but my guess is we will see the advent of something like the cockpit minder in the not too distant future. God help us!

Lookleft 30th Aug 2018 23:08

On the one hand Boeing are saying 240,000 pilots in the next 20 years and on the other they are saying that they are developing autonomous aircraft within a similar timescale. They are hyping up the pilot numbers to generate business for their training centres while at the same time hyping up the time frame for no pilot aircraft which would make their training centres redundant! Maybe the autonomous aircraft hype is for the benefit of airline CEO's who can see a big performance bonus for reducing staffing KPIs. The reality of both predictions will be borne out by the next generation of narrow body aircraft designs. If Boeing commit to autonomous aircraft production and the airlines commit to firm orders then we will know which area of the Boeing business has won the argument. Until then the current pilot shortage and the exit of experienced pilots over the next 10 years from the industry is still an airline CEO's reality.

Icarus2001 31st Aug 2018 01:51

Cargo ships ply the oceans and when leaving and arriving in port they are taken over by local marine pilots who guide the ship in as they have local knowledge.
This means of transport is predictable and moves in two dimensions. It would be ripe for automation but that is not happening.

Trains run on FIXED tracks and in some places are driverless but this is not widespread. I think that is because the passengers want someone up the front who has a vested interest in getting there safely.

So until both of these forms of transport are largely autonomous then pilotless aircraft are just a wet dream of people like MOL. Even the so called US drone aircraft have pilots in a room in the US. They are remotely controlled.

Boeing need to glass up? What does that mean?

racedo 31st Aug 2018 12:22

Ultimately it will come down to cost and afraid that is what is the driver of it.

A 100 fleet SH carrier will need circa 12 qualified pilots per aircraft on average, and assumming cost is $200k a year each that includes Salary, Taxes, training costs etc etc then that is £200-250 million dollar cost per year.

Assumming Boeing / Airbus can roll this out and I believe they can and will then their is a real benefit to airline owners.

The arguement will be passenger worries.............. well post 9/11 nobody in Europe wanted to fly on an aircraft, Ryanair introduce 1p fares and people overcome their worries very quickly for a cheap fare.

I would expect 2-3 years iof transition where Pilots are present in the cockpit but from first introduction I would expect 10 years before we have automated fleets in many countries.

Circa 2040 is probably not unrealistic.

captbod 31st Aug 2018 12:26

As long as those Pilots are under 55.

wiggy 31st Aug 2018 14:08


I would expect 2-3 years iof transition where Pilots are present in the cockpit but from first introduction I would expect 10 years before we have automated fleets in many countries.

Circa 2040 is probably not unrealistic.
? So you are expecting to see the first autonomous but manned flights in passenger operation in 10 to 12 years from now, with automated fleets in many countries by 2040?

DODGYOLDFART 31st Aug 2018 14:14

Don't forget guys that the automation will not be just in the aircraft but also on the ground as well. This will require common international standards for infrastructure and I do not see that happening over night.

Falck 31st Aug 2018 14:41

It is a selling argument for Boeing. If you produce toy airplanes. And you want to sell those all over the world.
you have to make sure that there are enough batteries to go with your toyplane. Otherwise the toyplane does not work.

So, Boeing is makeing sure that the supply of pilots will not dry out by promising big pilot numbers.
As long as there are pilots sleeping in carparks and paying for their training there is no pilot shortage. Boeing likes
to keep the market as it is. Cheap pilots/Batteries will sell their toy airplanes better than expensive Batteries/Pilots.
Same is valid for Airbus.

MPL was invented by Boeing. With their training provider Alteon. If you want to sell Airplanes, you need pilots.
cheap and a lot.

Falck

Rabski 31st Aug 2018 17:40


Originally Posted by wiggy (Post 10238211)
[QUOTE
I would expect 2-3 years iof transition where Pilots are present in the cockpit but from first introduction I would expect 10 years before we have automated fleets in many countries.

Circa 2040 is probably not unrealistic.]



? So you are expecting to see the first autonomous but manned flights in passenger operation in 10 to 12 years from now, with automated fleets in many countries by 2040?
[/QUOTE]

Dreamland.

The entire infrastructure needs to be in place, worldwide, before full automation becomes reality, and it's not going to happen that fast.

Automation is fine when everything goes to plan. It's all fine and good saying that when a robotic production line goes t*ts up you can push a red button and it all stops, but it's not quite that simple if you're at 20,000 ft with one engine out and aiming for the nearest long enough runway with serious crosswinds.

Chronus 31st Aug 2018 17:54

Seems bbc got it from:

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/ma...pilot-outlook/

But the numbers don`t match. For Asia-Pacific it is 261,000 and for World Demand 790000.
Maybe they are working on a mass production assembly line to produce pilots. More likely is this forecast will be the excuse for pilotless aircraft. Namely the numbers required not achievable so the only way ahead is full automation with ground control for back up.

FBW390 31st Aug 2018 18:07

increase the salaries to avoid pilote shortage!
 
I understand many students are not interested to invest in the huge cost and difficulty of training when the salaries they could expect later are not that high…Or simply really low…

The airlines are short of pilots ? Well, why don’t they start paying for the training of their own ab initio students ?

And to keep and attract good, rated, experienced Captains and FOs, why don’t they increase their salaries, Terms and Conditions ? They prefer buying new airplanes and watch them idle on the apron ?

About China, why do they make an insanely difficult Medical ? An insanely difficult sim check ? An insanely difficult amount of paperwork to fill ?

There is no shortage of pilots for the airlines that really pay and respect their cockpit crews. And they’re not only national carriers…

ZeroOneTwo 31st Aug 2018 18:45

It’ll be interesting when the lack of pilots constrains airline growth, how the OEM’s react with increased automation and the single pilot idea becomes a practical reality...a conundrum also for the unions...interesting times ahead

RexBanner 1st Sep 2018 16:12

Funny how this conversation rears its head every five years, ten years, 6 months, take your pick. But yet each time we’re no closer to it than we were before.

RVF750 1st Sep 2018 17:49

Just remember, that an F/O is a trainee Captain. Without the ability for on the job learning, the single crew aircraft will have be designed for 200hr pilots to fly. it has to be. Thus it's not today's Captain's who need to worry, but today's F/Os. They're the future Captains who will be redundant....

Scary, isn't it....

RexBanner 1st Sep 2018 21:17

Not scary at all. Ain’t gonna happen any time soon. Not wishful thinking, it’s fact.

racedo 2nd Sep 2018 01:04


Originally Posted by RexBanner (Post 10239134)
Not scary at all. Ain’t gonna happen any time soon. Not wishful thinking, it’s fact.

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2018/08/...ower-colorado/

yup its at a place with no tower now but 90,000 movements a year.

CurtainTwitcher 2nd Sep 2018 05:54


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10239231)
https://denver.cbslocal.com/2018/08/...ower-colorado/

yup its at a place with no tower now but 90,000 movements a year.


At the bottom of the article there was another link to the project. If you navigate through to the project technology page, you get this:

The concept behind the Colorado Remote Tower Project is the first of its kind to integrate both satellite-based aircraft surveillance technology together with ground-based video technology. This advanced technological approach is designed to give air traffic controllers a comprehensive view of air traffic on the airfield and in the airspace surrounding an airport - all from a remote location, and only when operational demands necessitate this level of air traffic
This appears to be a remote version of a tower to save money. All that has happened is the controller is physically somewhere remote to the airfield. This was attempted at Alice Springs in 2011, and abandoned with the camera's removed, not sure what the issue was.

There is a big difference between remote control (as we do right now with most ATC, ie Centre, Approach etc) and automation of the actual ATC function.

FBW390 2nd Sep 2018 07:32

a driverless car, train, metro, boat: when there's a problem, a connection failure, they stop! No problem!
A control twr is a fix device...
But as you know an airplane can not stop where it is if everything goes wrong; it always has to fly, and fast, and be steered somewhere. What happens if you lose the remote control?
It happens to me very frequently to lose datalink communication. Not a problem if the pilots are in the cockpit! So it might happen in 40 or 50 years, but in the next 20 years, there will be a pilot shortage! Mostly we start to see a shortage of good pilots!

FBW390 2nd Sep 2018 07:34

I mean, in 40 or 50 years, yes, maybe, the technology will allow pilotless planes; but not now.

italian stallion 2nd Sep 2018 08:42

But yet they make it near impossible to pass their outrageous assessments....well park your planes then, and that goes for other carriers too not just in Asia.

racedo 2nd Sep 2018 21:09


Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher (Post 10239294)
At the bottom of the article there was another link to the project. If you navigate through to the project technology page, you get this:


This appears to be a remote version of a tower to save money. All that has happened is the controller is physically somewhere remote to the airfield. This was attempted at Alice Springs in 2011, and abandoned with the camera's removed, not sure what the issue was.

There is a big difference between remote control (as we do right now with most ATC, ie Centre, Approach etc) and automation of the actual ATC function.

What they also said was someone from a remote station could monitor a number of airports.

Big Pistons Forever 2nd Sep 2018 21:41

Pretty much every technology in aviation started with the military, so if you want to see where civil aviation is going to be in 15 years look at the military now. What I see is the precision strike mission is now being executed by drones. If the technology exists today to acquire and engage a target with a drone operated by a guy 10,000 miles away then it exists to fly and A to B airliner flight. The question is only how long is it going to take for this reality to be adopted by industry.

As for the idea passengers won't fly in a pilot-less airplane, well if the fare is $ 5 cheaper they will jump on.

As a person who has been flying for 40 years, 31 of that commercially I take no joy in this situation but I also accept its inevitability.

Lookleft 2nd Sep 2018 23:33

AFAIK the military drones are single engine so no control difficulties if the engine fails and no fatalities so no big deal. How long does it take to develop a new airliner from scratch? 15-20 years and one without any pilots on board even longer. So no pilot needs to be worried until Airbus,Boeing,Embraer, Mitsubishi etc have actually committed to producing a pilotless airliner and at least one airline has put cash down for a spot on the production line. Even with the oft quoted "Planes just land themselves" by the less educated amongst us the weather criteria is very limiting. Also AFAIK there is no commercial aircraft capable of an automatic takeoff, one of the two crew has to pull back on whatever constitutes a control column and the other crew member is monitoring what is going on with the aircraft.

It is all possible in theory but the reliability and redundancies required and its integration with ground based infrastructure are a long, long way from being resolved.

theNotoriousPIC 2nd Sep 2018 23:51

I'd happily go fly in China. All I need: free type rating, commuting contract, 180/360 yearly working period, matching 401k with health and travel benefits, a paycheck in USD, and a corporate culture that views an FO as equally important as a CA.

Otherwise, why leave my current regional job in the US?

tdracer 3rd Sep 2018 01:56

I think most of you are over-reacting. We're not going to see pilotless commercial aircraft in 20 years. There is an outside chance that we see initial implementation of single pilot aircraft (automation good enough that it can take over and land an otherwise reasonably healthy aircraft it the pilot becomes incapacitated) - but there is no way pilotless will happen in the next twenty years (although I remain convinced it'll happen eventually).
This is simply Boeing throwing out a warning shot that, if nothing is done, we're looking at a pilot shortage. Purely self interest - they can't sell new aircraft if there are not enough pilots available to fly them, and since Asia is where the fastest growth is occurring, it's where the need for new pilots will be the strongest.
This is really nothing new - ~ 40 years ago Boeing (and others) were predicting an acute shortage of engineers by the year 2000. They knew that if qualified engineers were in short supply, they'd have to dramatically increase engineers pay. But by predicting a shortage, and providing financial incentives to STEM education, they were able to encourage lots of young people to go into engineering. As a result, the predicted shortage never occurred and engineer pay (when corrected for inflation) isn't a whole lot different today then it was 40 years ago (basically, good engineers will never go hungry, but are unlikely to ever get rich either - rather it remains basically a solidly middle class occupation).
I expect we'll see something similar happen for commercial pilots...

krismiler 3rd Sep 2018 02:05

The capability exists for automatic take off but as there is little benefit, unlike auto land, the technology hasn't been adopted.

Pilot less aircraft would work if nothing went wrong which required a response to an event which hadn't previously been programmed into the artificial intelligence controlling the aircraft and we are a long way from that level at the moment. The first step would be control by a human operator on the ground and even this is still a long way off. Military drones need to be controlled by an operator nearby for take off and landing as the lag in response times is unacceptable. The drone over Afghanistan being piloted by an operator in a base in Nevada needs to be handed over at the end of the mission to someone onsite who bring it back onto the ground.

Airlines would need to station their own pilots at every port they fly into or train and licence local operators to provide coverage. Enroute control could be done from home base as response times aren't as critical in the cruise.

16024 3rd Sep 2018 19:28

Autonomous jet airliners won't ever happen.
Repeat this over and over.
Cut it out and stick it on your wall. In a frame.
For the oldies among us it doesn't matter anyway. For anyone young enough to be thinking about a career break in China, for example, you will get to see the end of jet airliners.
And you can look at those words, in the frame and say "He was right."

friartuck 4th Sep 2018 08:29

The problem is worst at US airlines. Flight says American will lose 60% of its pilots by 2030, United 57%, Delta 54%

Captain Dart 5th Sep 2018 01:50

I will be in the cold, cold ground long before any robot can pick its way through the ITCZ safely and with maximum passenger comfort and minimum practical track deviation. Some of those dang CBs just don't show up on radar (visions of a tin man craning toward the windscreen with the cockpit lights turned down). And Manila will still be using HF radio...

Icarus2001 5th Sep 2018 07:31


And Manila will still be using HF radio...
Yes, and Australia...


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