End of the road for Iran aviation imports
Everything to be shut down. Airbus, Boeing, ATR and everyone else. It's a great way to kick-off a negotiation.
Boeing, Airbus licences to sell jets to Iran to be revoked: U.S. treasury secretary | CBC News |
End of the road to the West, yes. Iran Air's orders for Airbus and ATR will be cancelled, I guess - not a problem for the US!
Beginning of the road to Moscow? or the Belt and Road to China? |
Not cancelled, they'll be deferred
so a constant reminder to everyone of US bullying..... |
Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
(Post 10141913)
Not cancelled, they'll be deferred
so a constant reminder to everyone of US bullying..... The trouble is that such things largely affect the poor and cause yet more isolation; which can never be good. |
Not cancelled, they'll be deferred |
rouble is they do it through the banks - no bank will touch an Iranian deal now nor want to deal with anyone who does.....
Doubt the Europeans can do anything about that TBH |
Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
(Post 10142104)
rouble is they do it through the banks - no bank will touch an Iranian deal now nor want to deal with anyone who does.....
Doubt the Europeans can do anything about that TBH As far as I'm concerned, Trump can't stop the French selling Iran aircraft and spare parts. America's loss will be Europe's gain IMHO. |
Originally Posted by VinRouge
(Post 10142135)
Trump can't stop the French selling Iran aircraft and spare parts
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What gets me annoyed about this is the hard reality of history: as evidenced by both Pakistan and North Korea, a nation will (if they've a mind to) develop their nuclear capability with a treaty or without one. (Two exceptions being Iraq and Syria, whose plants got bombed by the Israelis in 1981 and 2007).
This decision seems to me a way to cut off one's own nose to spite one's face; it harms harms high tech jobs, and overall national trade/commerce both at home, and among our allies. The only silver lining I see is that any number of observers have opined that "a new deal" being reworked turns all of this back on. OK, if a "new deal" is worked out, and the orders turned back on, all to the good. But I wonder at the timeline on that. I am not keen to see the aircraft building industry take a hit, on either side of the pond. :( And here's the other thing: the opportunity to increase a variety of low level contacts and influence. For example, you've got simulator / training set ups that can establish the kinds of contacts benefit in a variety of multinational efforts ... OK. Nuff said. |
To go slightly off topic I wonder if Trump has any idea that he may have made the USA considerably less safe.
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 10142140)
What gets me annoyed about this is the hard reality of history: as evidenced by both Pakistan and North Korea, a nation will (if they've a mind to) develop their nuclear capability with a treaty or without one. (Two exceptions being Iraq and Syria, whose plants got bombed by the Israelis in 1981 and 2007).
This decision seems to me a way to cut off one's own nose to spite one's face; it harms harms high tech jobs, and overall national trade/commerce both at home, and among our allies. The only silver lining I see is that any number of observers have opined that "a new deal" being reworked turns all of this back on. OK, if a "new deal" is worked out, and the orders turned back on, all to the good. But I wonder at the timeline on that. I am not keen to see the aircraft building industry take a hit, on either side of the pond. :( And here's the other thing: the opportunity to increase a variety of low level contacts and influence. For example, you've got simulator / training set ups that can establish the kinds of contacts benefit in a variety of multinational efforts ... OK. Nuff said. |
Originally Posted by Ian W
(Post 10142168)
there was no verification in this deal
The US aren't the only ones who care about Iran and its nuclear ambitions, yet it is only they (well, along Iran's sworn enemies obviously) who insist on blowing up a deal that was doing fine for "something better" (undefined) for no obvious reason. (Of course even in the US there are plenty of well informed people in the government and military who were not in favor of terminating the deal either) The world is a lot bigger than the US and ignoring long standing relationships with strong allies with this obvious buffoonery is worse for the US than it is for Iran. |
most people beleive Trump's biggest issue with the deal is that it was signed by Obama -
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Perhaps its time for non US manufacturers to remove US components from their products......
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 10142140)
I am not keen to see the aircraft building industry take a hit, on either side of the pond. :(
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
(Post 10142253)
most people beleive Trump's biggest issue with the deal is that it was signed by Obama -
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Originally Posted by JCviggen
(Post 10142209)
Who told you that and why did you believe it? It's patently untrue. https://www.gcsp.ch/News-Knowledge/P...ust-and-Verify (try page 25 onwards).
Three major developments enabled breakthroughs in the negotiations. The first was the election of Barack Obama as US president in November 2008, allowing direct US negotiations with Iran. The second was a shift in P5+1 policy from insistence on the cessation of uranium enrichment by Iran combined with sanctions, to one of containing Iran’s nuclear programme and using the lifting of sanctions as leverage. The third major development was the 2013 election of Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran on a platform of sanctions relief and economic recovery." Containment was a shaky concept to begin with and proven by North Korea to be impossible. Containment, a concept upon which the whole Iran deal is built, is a totally failed and discredited concept. A mutually acceptable agreement was achieved through dialogue and active diplomacy rather than threats (including of a military strike), isolation and unilateral demands. Both sides achieved their goals: for the P5+1, that of preventing Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapons, and for Iran, that of preserving its acquired nuclear know-how and having the sanctions lifted. Sadly, the recently released mountain of secret documents from Tehran proved that "preventing Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapons" was a fiction. And this deal that allows Iran "keeping their nuclear know-how" meant them keeping their nuclear weapon know-how. The Vienna agreement put into place an unprecedented verification system to ensure that Iran will not enrich uranium above a low level, that the volume of its stockpiles will remain capped, that its capacity to produce enriched uranium will be limited and that it will not produce weapons-grade plutonium. The IAEA will monitor the whole Iranian fuel cycle, from mining to spent fuel (which Iran will not be able to reprocess). Again, the recently release mountain of secret documents fro Tehran show the verification system is a farce. The Iranians have in place secret facilities for the enrichment of uranium "above a low level" including to nuclear weapons-grade level. Obama and Kerry promised that after their negotiations and deal with Syria, ALL of Syria's chemical weapons had been "verified" destroyed and their chemical weapon production facilities "verified" to be dismantled. Those "verified" assurances were a total farce. The lack of mutual trust between Iran and the P5+1 explains this extensive verification system, which follows a “distrust-AND-verify” approach. Iran also had to work with the IAEA to clarify pending questions on the past possible military dimensions of its programme. The monitoring mechanism put in place will ensure joint supervision of the implementation of the commitments (including a Joint Commission and regular ministerial meetings). The JCPOA is a model of a cooperative security approach. Another farce. The secret documents reveal that Iran did NOT truthfully "clarify pending questions on the past possible military dimensions of its programme." A "model cooperative security approach" depends totally on.......cooperation. The secret documents clearly show that Iran is not engaged in cooperation, but in deception. The "negotiations" were a farce because the Iranians were not engaged in negotiation but deception, and the resulting deal is an equal farce. Knowing what we know now we can and should negotiate a much tougher deal with much more stringent verification that does not depend on "cooperation." And the end result needs to be much different. The old end result gave Iran unlimited unfettered ability to do whatever they wanted after the agreement expired, which begins in phases in 2023. The new end result must ensure Iran can NEVER produce nuclear weapons. |
Originally Posted by KenV
(Post 10142323)
The "negotiations" were a farce because the Iranians were not engaged in negotiation but deception, and the resulting deal is an equal farce.
Knowing what we know now we can and should negotiate a much tougher deal The old end result gave Iran unlimited unfettered ability to do whatever they wanted after the agreement expired, which begins in phases in 2023. Under the agreement the IAEA will have access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities for the next 20 years. It will continuously monitor the country’s enrichment capability, including through real-time monitoring of its enrichment facilities and access to its uranium mining and milling facilities. The IAEA will also supervise the production of uranium concentrate (“yellow cake”) for the next 25 years. The IAEA seals on disassembled and stored centrifuges will notify the Agency if they are tampered with. Iran must allow short-notice inspections of its nuclear facilities – as short as two hours if inspectors are already present at the site. The JCPOA also outlines a mechanism for gaining access to sites of concern, for example, if there is suspicious activity at an undeclared site. Iran can challenge the IAEA ’s request to inspect the facility, leading to an arbitration process that could take up to 24 days to resolve. This provision is intended to close a loophole in the Additional Protocol, which does not cover what the international community can do if a country refuses to grant the IAEA access to a suspect facility within 24 hours. While Iran could potentially use that timeline to hide some evidence of minor illicit activities, the facilities needed to develop a covert nuclear programme are likely to leave traces of radiation that do not disappear quickly. In other words, illicit activity at an undeclared site is likely to be detected under the JCPOA. If Iran decided to “sneak out” it would have to rebuild an entire covert fuel cycle, from uranium ore to weapons-usable uranium, but it cannot do so and escape detection. Iran is unable to produce all the parts and components necessary for its programme indigenously. As a result, it would have either to procure what it needs or divert materials from authorized procurements. Diversion would likely be detected by the IAEA because of the intrusive verification system put in place, combined with the existing export control regimes The new end result must ensure Iran can NEVER produce nuclear weapons. |
I remember in the 70s the Hazelnuts etc at Christmas came from Iran.
Remember reading it on the label. Realising that the world wasn't actually that big after all. Once again the warmongers win. :( |
Originally Posted by Ian W
(Post 10142168)
You are making the assumption that there will be no replacement deal;
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I guess that means Airbus will consider USA content to be as trustworthy as our treaties.
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Originally Posted by jack11111
(Post 10142551)
I guess that means Airbus will consider USA content to be as trustworthy as our treaties.
Originally Posted by oleary
(Post 10142526)
I look forward to the day when America is no longer beholden to the Israel Lobby, ... because that is what this all about.
Consistent American policy is that only one country in the Middle East is allowed to have a secret, uninspected nuclear weapons program and it is not Iran. |
AirBubba wrote: "The Iran deal was never a treaty, it was never submitted to Congress. It was done by executive agreement."
Right you are...I stand corrected. |
Looks kinda like ALPA's usual response to the company's opener :D:
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Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 10142668)
Looks kinda like ALPA's usual response to the company's opener :D:
https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/sta...32722108026885 |
Seems that American foreign policy is now set and controlled by Israel. For such a small country they seem to wield a great deal of power and influence over America. |
Originally Posted by LTNman
(Post 10142708)
Seems that American foreign policy is now set and controlled by Israel. |
Originally Posted by KenV
(Post 10142304)
"Most people?" Who are these mythical "most people" and who made you their spokesperson?
I am no -ones spokesman but reflecting the objective truth that a lot of people in the USA and just about every other world leader , opinion maker and sentient being thinks the President has made a major mistake When yr only supporters are Netanyahu and the Saudis yr in a lonely place............... |
Originally Posted by core_dump
(Post 10142749)
"Now"? It's been that way for decades; what I don't understand is 'why'. That entire tiny country could be vaporized tomorrow and nobody here would be affected in the least, nor care. But yet our politicians in the USA obey like lapdogs. I don't get it.
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Originally Posted by jack11111
(Post 10142551)
I guess that means Airbus will consider USA content to be as trustworthy as our treaties.
Trump's attitude to China is already driving them to develop indigenous high technology industries to make things they currently buy in from the USA because the USA is clearly an unreliable partner. Europe will likely do the same. The real problem is US "Secondary sanctions". "Primary sanctions" means a US company can't trade with Iran - so Boeing can't sell to an Iranian airline. "Secondary sanctions" mean a US company can't trade with any company that trades with Iran. So American Airlines can't buy an Airbus if Airbus also sells to Iran (even if the Airbus aircraft contains no American parts). Secondary sanctions are the world-wide bullying tactic of the USA, and they have been stopped before - the EU forced the USA to withdraw secondary sanctions over Cuba in 1996. See https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ir...-idUKKBN1IA2PG for a summary. |
I must be missing something but didn't Donnie campaign promise that he would withdraw if elected. Keeping a promise. I like that. Obama drew a red line & let everyone cross it. Don;t like that much.
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Boy a lot of people in here trusting Iran!! what..... I suppose you think North Korea will never come to the table either!! they certainly didn’t under Obama and Bush did they fellas. Trump haters are so predictable. |
Any ideas of simply renegotiating the hard-won compromises Iran gave us as if it was some sleazy real estate deal of Trumpian standards is pure folly. We've turned our backs on our allies and broken our word and bond and in the process, incensed an abused nation that is the Iranian people.
We may not agree with their government, but it should be remembered that international relations are not won and lost in short-term, one-shot "deals" like down at the used car lot or at some gaudy Trump property management office. The process is, more often than not, moved forward in steps, some of which are not easy for either side. Academics refer to international treaties and agreements as an iterative process with the eyes on the long term prize. That requires a bit of vision and not that of the myopic kind. |
I suspect that trumps contribution to North Koreas change of heart was that the Chinese could use him as the Mad man ' in the Mad man theory.
Ie this guy is nits and really might nuke you- as we live next door thats not good for us so sort things out with the yanks or we will sort you out . Israel is just a votes issue, a powerful lobby in USA in some very key areas, like NY and LA. Squeeze Israel and we will vote for the other guy . As for keeping promises -Hitler did that to a large degree especially right after he got elected-that worked out really well for Germany didnt it |
I must be missing something but didn't Donnie campaign promise that he would withdraw if elected. Keeping a promise. I like that Making promises during a campaign based on emotions and implementing them against the advice from you own security advisers is never a good thing. Upsetting and not listening to your traditional allies is not a good thing either. Mr Trump has managed to do both in 10 minutes. Being a successful showman and being President of the most powerful country in the planet ( at the moment) are 2 different things. If the US stop being a reliable partner (in Aviation or else), China will very nicely fill the void and I think the Europeans are likely to follow the new leader. |
There is no direct ban for US-made components in aircraft, however there is a threshold on the max value %% of US-made components in total aircraft value. Generally speaking no jet can fit under it, but ATR and Dash8 may get there is thier engines are not US made. |
Originally Posted by CargoOne
(Post 10142953)
There is no direct ban for US-made components in aircraft, however there is a threshold on the max value %% of US-made components in total aircraft value. Generally speaking no jet can fit under it, but ATR and Dash8 may get there is thier engines are not US made. |
I don't think Airbus or Boeing declare their prime sales targets as Iran Air.
Not a big deal. Look at their delivery backlogs. Their sales stars are too busy with Emirates, Lufthansa and Singapore. |
Originally Posted by Chris2303
(Post 10142150)
To go slightly off topic I wonder if Trump has any idea that he may have made the USA considerably less safe.
I wonder if Trump as any idea |
Hard to believe that America doesn’t want to send hundreds of millions to a country that chants, “death to America” as they pursue nuclear weapon capabilities.The Apologist isn’t in charge anymore. |
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